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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Traders Set Sights on Thursday’s Grain Opening

Jul 03, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 3, 2012 at 5:15 am. Corn and soybean futures are higher. There is no question we are in a weather market in the grains. As long as we do not get rain, the corn and soybean production potential is deteriorating. The USDA gave us the weekly conditions report yesterday afternoon. Both corn and soybean crops were down 8% in the good to excellent category. Corn conditions in IL were down 11% with IN down 8% putting them at 26 and 19 respectively. Soybeans hardest hit were in IL down 7% and NE down 12%. The supply side of the equation has been getting all the attention and rightfully so. However after $1.66 rally in Dec corn futures and $2.20 rally in Nov soybean futures there are concerns in trade about the demand. Dr. Good from the University of Illinois in a recent article suggested corn demand could drop from the USDA estimate of 13.775 to near 13.3. The global economic uncertainties and the sharp price rallies in futures have end users going to a hand-to-mouth buying approach. Friday’s enthusiastic rally in the macro markets quickly became a downer after the weekend. Some of the Scandinavian countries are beating the drum that they will nix the deal suggested by the EU leaders last Friday. We have had disappointing news from US, Asia and Europe when the PMI data was released. The CME markets will close today at noon and not reopen until Thursday morning. With a touch of rain, the forecast it seems likely to see some profit taking before the holiday. Livestock futures are seeing some position evening ahead of the holiday. Boxed beef was lower with choice down .03 and select was down .48. Pork cutout values fell 1.58 as holiday buying is complete. The next Wake-Call will be Friday morning. With the late opening on Thursday we hope you can watch the Morning Coffee video from
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Jly Corn    +9 1/4
Jly Beans   +16
Jly Wheat   +4 3/4
Aug Cattle +.47
Jly Hogs    -.45
Sep S&P     +.50
Sep Dlr     +.01
Aug Crude   +1.46
Aug Gold    +11.70
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s Nov. Soybean trade made a new contract high of $14.55 3/4. While we did see a pull back from our highs during the day session unless we see a break below $14.00 which is old resistance turned support a bullish approach is advised.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
We saw an export sale of 1.2 million tonnes of 12/13 delivery to an unknown destination announced at 8 am Monday from the USDA. This is the fifth largest export sale in history. There were rumors around the market today that this export sale was to Brazil to satisfy contracts they made that they could not fulfill with their production.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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