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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Traders Take A Breather

Aug 21, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 21, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are taking a breather after two volatile sessions.

Allendale’s 24th Annual Yield Survey is under way and we need you to help us with your farm’s corn and soybean yield expectations. You know your fields better than anyone. The survey can be filled out online or over the phone, call us at 800-262-7538.

Weather is a major factor over the next 2 weeks in determining the size of the 2013 corn and soybean crop. The short term forecasts have put a little rain in the northern cornbelt with a better chance late, next week. Temps are expected to be in the upper 80’s to low 90’s which will be helpful for maturation in some areas but stressful in the dry areas.

More crop tour results put Indiana corn yield at 167 versus three year tour average of 141 bushels per acre. Nebraska corn yield is estimated at 154.9 compared to three year average of 147.9 bushels per acre. Nebraska bean pod counts were below the 3 year average while Indiana beans had a pod count larger than the three year average. The tour estimate of total US production will be released on Friday at 1:30 PM. 

View a clip from this week’s broker strategy session in which Rich Nelson discusses how the information released by the FSA was misinterpreted by analysts last week.

Declining water levels on the Mississippi River may cause cuts in draft as early as this weekend. CIF basis is firming as grain demand at the gulf improves. Central Illinois bean basis was down 10 cent yesterday while corn was steady. Eastern Nebraska basis for corn was up 5 cents on light farmer movement.

Argentina ag officials say they will likely export 22 to 24 mmt tonnes while the USDA’s last estimate was 19.5 mmt. Jordan bought 100,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat which likely was Ukraine. Russia says they may cut back on exports in September due to the aggressive pace in July and August.

Cash cattle trade is at a standstill with no bids from processors. Showlists are smaller and packer margins are in the black which should improve chances of higher trade this week. Boxed beef was mixed with choice up .38 and select was down 1.33. Retail buying is almost completed for the Labor Day Holiday.

Discount of October hog futures to cash index is continuing to provide support to futures. Cash markets remain stable as packers fill chain needs this week and early next week. Processors hustle to fill retail orders for the last big holiday weekend. Pork cutout value was down .51.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +1
  • Nov Beans   +7 1/2
  • Sep Wheat   +3
  • Oct Cattle  +.20
  • Oct Hogs    -.10
  • Sep Dlr     +.13
  • Sep S&P     -4.50
  • Oct Crude   -.33
  • Oct Gold    -10.00

 

View the Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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