Traders Wait For A Possible USDA Surprise!
Sep 12, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 12, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed in the overnight session ahead of the USDA Report.
We are in cool Fargo, ND this morning. The trip from Mankato, MN to Fargo yesterday had crop conditions for the bull and the bear. The soybean crop looks to be hit the hardest from the dry conditions across MN into ND. Corn looked like it has a much better chance to be average production. I did not see many fields of corn that would be greatly effected by a frost after October 1.
The USDA will give us their estimates for crop production at 11:00 am today.
2013 US corn production average trade estimate is 13.62 billion bushel. USDA August estimate was 13.763 billion bushel and the 2012 final production was 10.78.
US corn yield for 2013 average trade estimate is 153.69 BPA. The range was 150.2 to 157.2 BPA.
US soybean production average estimate is 3.140 billion bushels with a range of 2.98 to 3.239 billion bushels. The August USDA estimate was 3.255 billion bushel and 2012 final was 3.015 billion bushel.
US soybean average trade estimate for yield is 41.172 BPA with a range of 39.0 (Allendale) to 42.4 BPA. USDA August estimate was 42.6 BPA and 2012 final was 39.6 BPA.
Estimates for USDA’s export sales report to be released at 7:30 am: Wheat 450 to 650 tmt, corn 400 to 500 tmt, soybeans 650 to 800 tmt, soymeal 50 to 150 tmt, soyoil 5 to 10 tmt.
Elevators and processors have dropped their bids to fully new crop which is a drop of 1.20 a bushel is less than a week. More end-users are posting basis that are -19 to -30 the Dec futures. Cash merchandisers are reporting a bit more movement of corn yesterday adding pressure to basis.
September futures go off the board on Friday.
Livestock markets are quiet. Cash cattle trade is at a standstill. Beef cutout values were mixed on Wednesday with choice up .20 and select down .26. Pork futures are pressured by funds rolling out of the October. Cash markets are weaker with larger supplies expected to increase next week when weather cools. Pork cutout values were up 1.14 on Wednesday.
I will be at the Red River Farm Network tent at 1:30 this afternoon. Stop by and say hi!
Markets as of 5:00 AM
- Dec Corn -2 1/4
- Nov Beans +4 1/4
- Sep Wheat -1 3/4
- Oct Cattle +.32
- Oct Hogs +.07
- Dec Dlr +.01
- Dec S&P -3.00
- Oct Crude +.39
- Oct Gold -20.60
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