USDA’s Outlook ConferenceFor 2014 Starts Today!
Feb 20, 2014
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 20, 2014 at 4:16 am.
Grain futures are mixed with soybeans higher and corn and wheat lower. Market influences are short covering, the worry about winter wheat crop conditions and the lack of announcements of soybean cancellations.
The Ag Outlook conference held in Washington, DC by the USDA begins today. Traders are expecting some market moving headlines to come out of that forum. Their full balance sheet, including ending stocks, will be released Friday when the first of the outlook speeches are given. Reuters took an informal analyst poll ahead of the Chief Economist speech on USDA acreage numbers, the trade is looking for 92-93 million for corn, 80-81 for soybeans, and 55-55.7 wheat. Allendale’s submission was 93.0 for corn (-2.4), 81.6 for soybeans (+5.1), and 55.7 for wheat (-0.4).
Weekly export sales data will be released Friday morning due to the holiday on Monday. Traders are waiting for some cancellation or switching by China to South America. We have no confirmations yet from USDA.
Cash bids for soybeans and corn were mostly steady on Wednesday as farmers were not interesting in selling after futures rally.
The unrest in Ukraine has caused some of the international grain traders to close their offices in Kiev due to the unrest. Ports remain open as violence seems to be confined to the capital city.
Cattle on Feed report for February will be released on Friday at 2:00 pm. Traders are expect a decline in the on-feed number to 95.9% and marketings to be 95% of last year. Placement on average are expected to be 102.5% of last year however arguments can be made for less placements due to less cattle available. Beef cutout values are higher with choice up 1.86 and select up .77. The CME Feeder Index is 171.59.
Returning from several meetings across SD, MN and WI and having the opportunity to talk with hog producers and getting first hand experiences of the PEDv, one becomes very concerned about supplies of hogs during summer months. Heavier weight will fill some of the loss in numbers therefore competitive meats could have a big impact on how high pork price move. Pork cutout values were down .95 on Wednesday.
Markets as of 4:16 AM
- Mar Corn – 1/4
- Mar Beans +4 3/4
- Mar Wheat -3
- Apr Cattle -.25
- Apr Hogs +.05
- Mar Dlr +.15
- Mar S&P -2.5
- Mar Crude -.04
- Apr Gold -6.60
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