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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

USDA Crop Report to be Released at 7:30 AM

May 10, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 10, 2012 at 5.10 am. Corn and soybeans futures are higher. The USDA supply demand report has traders doing last minute adjusting this morning. The trade is expecting 2011-12 corn carryout to tighten from last month’s 801 to 749 in today’s report. The production, usage and ultimately the ending stocks for the 2012-13 crop will be very important. This will be the first USDA estimate for the new crop marketing year and the numbers trade analyst will base their projections for the balance of the year. The 2012-13 carryout for corn is 1.704, soybeans .170 and wheat is .805. Demand from the PRC will be scrutinized. Production estimates for Argentina and Brazil will be watched closely because the last USDA number is well above recent forecast coming out of South American. Soybean ending stocks are expected to be down 30 million bushel from last month for 2011-12. And 2012-13 trade average estimates are 170 million bushel. Macro markets are likely to become a factor after the report data is digested as Greece, Spain and Portugal assess their future in the Eurozone. Weather, cash markets and export activity will also come into focus after the market has a chance to adjust for the new data. With the strength in cattle futures, feedlots are asking more money than last week. Packer margins are now in the black while feedlot losses are more than 100 per head.  Gas prices going down may give families a little more money to spend on meat. Choice beef was up .69 and select was down .04 on Wednesday.  Pork cutout values on Wednesday were down .71. Get the details of the USDA report on "The Morning Coffee" by 8:00 am on YouTube. Stay in touch with Allendale Research by subscribing to the Allendale Research Center.
Markets as of 5:10AM
July Corn    +4 1/4
Jly Beans   +14 1/4
Jly Wheat   +4 3/4
Jun Cattle +.02
Jun Hogs    -.15
Jun S&P     -1.25
Jun Dlr     +.08
May Crude   -.64
June Gold   -7.00
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
Allendale Advanced Charts
July Beans recent correction has reached a technical area of great importance. While the uptrend line is still intact, a close below the 4/18/12 low of $14.09 ½ could imply a complete breakdown of prices. A recovery attempt above the 5/01/12 pivot high of $15.12 ½ could create a scenario in which the Bean market makes a run at the 7/03/08 contract high of $16.63.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
With no clear leading party from recent Greek elections, and no clear plan to continue austerity measures, an executive board member of the European Central Bank raised the idea of Greece leaving the euro. This is the first public discussion from an ECB official about this possibility. A weaker euro and stronger US dollar is bearish to US commodities.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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