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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

USDA Provides Reason For Soybeans To Gain On Corn

Apr 02, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 2, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn and soybeans higher and wheat lower. The USDA gave us some friendly numbers on Friday morning reducing corn stocks by more than traders were expecting. They also put planting projections for soybeans below expectations which suggest an even tighter bean supply next year. The price relationship between corn and soybeans on March 1 when the data was taken was heavily weighted to planting corn. The prices are now trending toward an advantage to soybeans. We are getting calls from producers who are switching from corn to beans. We are hearing from seed salesmen who are getting corn seed returned and soybeans seed purchases. Other news overnight came from China where they put their PMI at 53.1 which improved to the highest number since April of 2011. However, HSBC released its estimate of China’s PMI at 48.3 which is the fifth consecutive month with lower manufacturing data. Weather forecast for this coming week is above normal but Euro and GFS models are giving conflicting ideas about frost for next Monday and Tuesday. We will be focused on this developing forecast as this week is a short week due to markets closed for Good Friday. Livestock markets will be trading the Hogs and Pigs report when they open this morning. Most numbers were slightly below trade estimates. Choice boxed beef was down .09 and select was down .72 on Friday. Pork cutout values were up .46 to end the week. Fund liquidation could be the feature as we start trading this week. Follow the Allendale Research Center and signup for special offer.

Markets as of 5:10 AM
May Corn    +7 3/4
May Beans   +12 1/2
May Wheat   -2 1/4
Apr Cattle stdy-lwr
Apr Hogs    stdy-hgr
Jun S&P     +1.25
Jun $ Ind   -.12
May Crude   -.41
June Gold   -3.50
Allendale Advanced Charts
Corn closed limit up on Friday in response to the bullish quarterly stocks number from USDA. This put a test to the 50 day moving average and 62% retracement. This market has established a trading range from 6.00 to 6.75.

Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
USDA indicates that 95.864 million acres of corn will be planted, a significant increase from last year’s 91.921. They peg bean acres at 73.902 million acres, over 1 million less than last year. Wheat acres look for a slight increase to 55.908 million acres
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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