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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

USDA Report Affects Overnight Trade

Jul 01, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 1, 2013  at 5:15 am. Grain futures are mixed as they continue to react to the USDA Reports. Tight supplies of old crop are supporting nearby contracts while weather is weighing on deferred months. Many are looking at the planted acreage number as unbelievable. We must remember that the data for Friday’s report was taken from a survey of producers in early June at a time when producers still believed they were going to get their crops in the ground. Now we will have to wait until August Supply and Demand Report before we likely see adjustment. It has been Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist’s contention that acreage this year is not as import as yield. Harvested acres are projected to get back to normal compared to last year’s low number. Friday’s data gives the USDA a lot of wiggle room on upcoming reports. We’d like to know your thoughts, take our one question poll below. Traders will be looking for an improvement for corn and soybean conditions of 1 to 3 % in G/E on this afternoon’s report. Cash corn and soybean basis is strong. The weather forecasts are positive to crop growth as temps will be in the 70’s and 80’s this week with scattered showers. Some early planted corn is starting to tassel. We have a short trading week ahead of us. The Hogs and Pigs Report could be viewed as a little friendly. We would look for a moderate rebound in futures this morning as the hog herd was found to be a little smaller. In the big picture, producers have an incentive to expand their hog operations as grain prices trend lower. Pork cutout values were up .30 on Friday. Boxed beef was mixed on Friday with choice up .12 and select down .47. Cash cattle traded at 120, steady with previous week. Agricultural futures markets observe Independence Day by closing early on Wednesday (noon) and reopening on Friday morning at the normal pit opening (grains 8:30 am and livestock 9:05 am). Outside markets are firmer as we start a new month.

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Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Jul #Corn    +1 1/4
  • Jul #Beans   +13 1/2
  • Jul #Wheat   +5
  • Aug #Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Jul #Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Sep Dlr     -.13
  • Sep S&P     +9.00
  • Aug Crude   +.47
  • Aug Gold    +18.50


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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