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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

USDA Results Drive Spreads

Apr 11, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 11, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are mixed as spreaders drive the corn market. The USDA Supply and Demand report had something for everybody. We start with the lower than expected US corn ending stocks, but remember last year stocks continued to rise as months went by. The world numbers were not as friendly when the corn stocks were increased due to reduced world consumption. Cash corn prices should stay firm as producers will not feel comfortable to clean out bins until the new crop is up and growing. Soybeans had little change from last month but USDA lowered the imports by China by 2.0 mmt. This news weighed on the soy complex. The cold weather in TX and OK was not enough to support wheat after the larger than expected ending stocks were released. Demand is key to providing support to grain futures as basis is historically wide. Export sales will be out at 7:30 this morning. Trade estimates are 150 to 600 tmt of old crop and 75 to 300 tmt of new crop corn, 175 to 500 tmt of old crop and 250 to 500 new crop soybeans and 100 to 250 tmt old crop and 125 to 400 new crop wheat. Planting progress will be next big focus by traders. The rains moving across the cornbelt are very important and farmers are anxious but not to worried about getting the crop in on time. Seed companies are also glad to see a bit of a delay which gives them more time to process and deliver seed. Bull spreads are likely to be choppy while giving opportunities to trade. Stay in touch with your Allendale Reps. Friday’s CFTC report will be watched closely to see if money managers are still liquidating. Cash cattle traded at 127 in TX and KS yesterday which is 1.00 lower than last week after futures sold off. Cash hog prices were firmer as packers tried to get producers to move inventory during bad weather. Pork cutout values were up .02. Boxed beef prices were slightly lower with choice down .18 and select down .68 on Wednesday. The feeder index is 139.95. Subscribe today to the Allendale Advisory Report.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May #Corn    +5 1/2
  • May #Beans   -5 3/4
  • May #Wheat   +4 1/4
  • Apr #Cattle  +.22
  • Apr #Hogs    +.30
  • Jun Dlr     -.33
  • Jun S&P     +1.50
  • May Crude   -.10
  • Jun Gold    -1.50


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