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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Waffling Forecast Worries Traders

Aug 02, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 2, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mostly lower. Weather still remains a dominant force in the grain markets and the models are waffling on a consistent forecast. However the trade is starting to focus on demand for corn and soybeans in the 2012-13 marketing year. Today it is expected that 120+ lawmakers in Washington will make a plea to the EPA to change the RFS mandate. Hog producers are reported to be liquidating sows because of concern of getting consistent feed supplies. Export data, to be released later this morning, will likely be dismal. The bounce in Dec corn late in the session yesterday is considered a save for the technical trading bulls. A close below the 20 day moving average in corn and soybeans could cause a deeper sell-off. South America is expecting large increases in corn and soybean production this year versus last year. Stay in touch with the Allendale Research Center by subscribing to the special offer before Friday. USDA weekly exports sales estimates for corn is 0 to 250 tmt, soybeans 380 to 605 tmt, soymeal 160 to 320 tmt, soyoil 0 to 50 tmt, and wheat 350 to 650 tmt. Cattle futures are getting ready for possible large deliveries against the August contract. Monday is first notice day and if the discount of cash to futures remains as wide as it is today, one would have to expect sizeable deliveries. Currently, the cash market is at a standstill with bids at 113 and asks at 118 to 119. Boxed beef was lower, choice down .13 and select down .26. Pork cutout came to life on Wednesday closing up 2.12.
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Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    -3 1/2
Nov Beans   - 1/2
Sep Wheat   -7 3/4
Aug Cattle -.22
Aug Hogs    +.05
Sep S&P     +6.00
Sep Dlr     -.25
Sep Crude   +.43
Aug Gold    +.30
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s weak trade in Oct Live Cattle shows a slowdown in momentum to the upside. From a big picture perspective the double bottom projects out to $129.05 all bullish bets must be risked against the $122.15 7/26 pivot low…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Early Wednesday, we were given an ethanol number that was better than last week coming in at 806 vs. 796 last week. This week obviously has a better number but the chart shows that we are still very far from being able to call this number "good".  
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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