Sep 19, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Weather And USDA Report On Trader’s Minds To Start

Apr 07, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 7, 2014 at 4:40 am.  

Grain futures are mixed with corn lower and soybeans and wheat higher. Weather seems to be the focus for corn and wheat while tight supplies support soybeans.

Traders will be waiting for the first national crop conditions report on wheat. The trade estimates ranges from 35 to 40% good/excellent.

Allendale’s Meteorologist, Ryan Martin views on this morning’s weather forecast can be found at here.

On Wednesday, the USDA will release the Monthly Supply and Demand report. Traders are hoping to get some indication on how the USDA is going to handle the soybean exports on the balance sheet. Will they increase imports of soybeans or increase last year’s soybean production to keep ending stocks at 145 million bushels?

Brazil soybean harvest is now more than 80% complete while Argentina has about 10% harvested. South American bean and meal premiums continue to soften. US soybean basis is also softening as crushers appear to be bought out for several weeks.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders report on Friday showed Managed Money added to long positions in grains. They added 36,549 corn contracts to bring total long positions to 275,836. In soybeans they added 8,017 contracts to bring them to a total net long position to 193,446 and in wheat they are now net long 45,025 after adding 8,533 contracts last week.

There is a light economic calendar in the US but watch for overseas data to catch headlines.

Livestock futures were hit with fund selling, profit taking and margin liquidation. Product values continue to come under pressure. Beef cutout was sharply lower with choice down 3.21 and select down 4.04. The CME Feeder Index is 178.09.

Pork cutout values were up 1.08 as product is still finding a home at higher prices. Profit taking and fund selling has been the feature in recent sessions. We expect livestock futures to open lower this morning.

Markets as of 4:40 AM

  • May Corn    -2 1/2
  • May Beans   +3 1/2
  • May Wheat   +2 3/4
  • Jun Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Jun Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Jun Dlr     -.05
  • Jun S&P     -5.25
  • May Crude   -.35
  • Jun Gold    -4.40


Chart of the Day

daily chart


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