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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Weather Expected To Cause Active Markets Sunday Evening

Jul 19, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 19, 2013 at 5:15 am.  Grain futures are mixed as traders worry if the anticipated forecast will develop. If the rain actual arrives as the Euro and GFS models are now forecasting in the 1 to 5 day period, the weather bulls will have problem. Sunday night could lead to explosive markets up or down. As we finish out the week, traders are talking about the possibility that China could buy a few more cargoes of new crop corn now that Dec is below $5.00. Margins will work for shipments into southern China. Soybean bean crush margins in the US are still positive and traders are now concerned that the early new crop bean harvest could go to the export market due to China’s aggressive purchases. Soybeans broke the 20 and 50 day moving average support on Thursday. Wheat harvest is progressing but quality problems in the eastern cornbelt are showing up. We are getting reports from producers that soft red winter wheat yields are not quite as good as earlier expected. Egypt bought wheat out of the Black Sea region because of price. South Korea announced overnight that they bought 60,000 tonnes of wheat from Black Sea Region. Money flow into the stock market continues while fund managers have pulled back on investments in commodities. Commitment of Traders report will be out later this afternoon to show fund activity from Tuesday of last week to Tuesday of this week. Cattle on Feed Report will be released at 2:00 pm today.

Cattle on Feed Report estimates are:

Reuters Survey                   Ranges           Average        Mln Head
On feed July 1                   96.0-97.7           97.0                10.389
Placements in June         89.3-99.8           94.7                 1.576  
Marketing’s in June        93.4-95.4           94.5                 1.857  


August lean hog futures continue to find support due to the $5.00 discount to the cash index. Pork cutout values were down 1.27 on Thursday. Boxed beef values also slipped, choice was down .14 and select down .05. The CME Feeder Index was up .18 to 145.65. Still waiting for cash cattle to trade this week. You can get full details of the report by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report. July 22nd is the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar.

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Dec Corn    -2 1/4
  • Nov Beans   +4 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   +3 1/4
  • Aug Cattle  +.05
  • Aug Hogs    +.05
  • Sep Dlr     +.07
  • Sep S&P     -1.25
  • Aug Crude   +.30
  • Aug Gold    +2.50


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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