Sep 16, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Weather Slows Movement In Eastern Cornbelt

Feb 06, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 6, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are higher in very narrow trading ranges. Weather, technicals and lack of grain movement are providing underling support.

We had a great producer turnout at the LG Seeds meeting last night in Wisconsin Dells. They were very interested in the outlook and strategies that were presented.

Ethanol production is running 11% over last year’s pace which is above USDA’s expectation of an 8% increase. Margins still appear good at 35 cents per gallon however our model does not take into account for the sharp rally in natural gas prices.

Traders are looking for some indication of China starting to cancel or switch soybeans to Brazil. Estimates for the weekly export sales in metric tonnes are:

Wheat               500,000-750,000    
Corn                  900,000-1,200,000    
Soybeans          550,000-850,000  
Soymeal           100,000-200,000  
Soyoil                          0-30,000

Monday, the USDA will release their February Supply and Demand report in which many are expecting an increase in exports for corn and soybeans. Allendale is looking for slight reductions in corn and soybean ending stocks.

President Obama will sign the new Farm Bill on Friday after delivering a speech at Michigan State University.

Trade estimates for Friday’s Employment data are: Nonfarm payroll +184,000, and Unemployment rate 6.7%.

The U.S. dollar will make steady gains against major currencies this year as a recovery in the world’s largest economy gathers pace and gives the Federal Reserve room to wind down its stimulus program, a Reuter’s poll found.

(Reuters) – Argentina probably won’t give up on strict currency controls anytime soon, using its scarce international reserves to avoid another abrupt devaluation, a Reuter’s poll found. The Argentine peso, which plunged 12 percent on a single day during the recent global, emerging market sell-off in late January, will probably weaken at a steady pace towards year-end to 10.70 per dollar, according to the median forecast of 13 economists and strategists polled worldwide.

Livestock futures are finding support from oversold conditions and a weaker dollar. Cash cattle traded at 141 this week which was 3.00 to 4.00 lower than last week. Packers were bidding 139 late on Wednesday. Beef values were lower with choice down 3.85 and select down 2.58. The CME Feeder Index is 170.50.

Hog weights are showing signs that they have topped for the season. This is suggesting hog producers are getting current. Hog supplies could become much tighter as we go into the spring due to the PEDv. Technical resistance is 96.40 (contract highs) in the April contract. Pork cutout values are down .09.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    +1
  • Mar Beans   + 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   + 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.20
  • Feb Hogs    +.10
  • Mar Dlr     +.07
  • Mar S&P     +9.50
  • Mar Crude   +.46
  • Feb Gold    +2.10

Chart of the Day


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