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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Weekly Export Sales To Be Release This Morning

Mar 29, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 29, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain markets are mixed this morning. Macro markets are providing a little tailwind for selling. Choppy action today is likely as traders adjust positions. In a little over 24 hours the USDA will release the long awaited Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings Reports. Remember, the corn and soybean plantings estimated by the USDA are as of the beginning of March. Price relationships were much more in favor of planting corn versus beans than today. So the trade seems to be expecting a bearish corn number and bullish beans as corn is making new lows for its recent move and beans are near recent trend highs. Dow Jones newswire released trade estimates for this morning’s Weekly Export Sales: Wheat 450-750 tmt, Corn 600-900 tmt, Soybeans 450-750 tmt, Soymeal 50-165 tmt, Soyoil 5-25 tmt. The Quarterly stocks average estimates for Friday mornings report are: Wheat 1.223, Corn 6.150 and soybeans 1.387 compared to last year Wheat 1.425, Corn 6.523 and soybeans 1.249 million bushel. Prospective planting trade average estimates are corn 94.72 million acres and soybeans 75.393 million acres compared to last year 91.92 and 74.976 respectively. Outside markets or money flow will have to be watched closely as newswires were reporting China buying corn had no impact on slowing down the selling of futures yesterday. Cash cattle traded 2.00 lower in Southern Plains while boxed beef continues the slide. Choice was down 1.20 and select was down 1.06. Pork cutouts were down .12. The USDA will be releasing Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Friday at 2:00. Get full pre-report and post-report comments in the Allendale Research Center. Listen to the Morning Coffee on YouTube Friday morning to get details of the report.
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
May Corn    -2               May Beans   +1 1/2            May Wheat   + 3/4
Apr Cattle -.20              Apr Hogs    -.375             May Crude   -.46
Jun $ Index +.08              Jun S&P     -4.75             June Gold   -3.90
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Corn was unable to hold above the 50% retracement today as it continued the recent weakness and finished near the 62% retracement on Wednesday. A close below this level would open the door for a retest of January lows of 5.99. We have seen a slide of 36 cents from Monday’s high.


Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
EU analysis firm, Oil World, made an interesting claim Tuesday. The group suggests China will need to buy US old crop soybeans to fill April – July imports. Up until now the general trade’s expectation for South American problems was that it would mostly be a US new crop issue. If China purchases do swing to US old crop, in a big way, it could justify the current prices for old crop US futures.
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.comwww.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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