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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

What Does USDA Have “Up Their Sleeve” for Soybeans?

Jun 11, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 11, 2014at 4:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are mixed with profit taking and position evening ahead of today’s USDA report.

Exports and domestic crush for old crop soybeans are expected to be the highlight of the report as current demand is running above USDA estimates.

The following are trades estimates from a Reuter’s poll for the USDA June Supply and Demand Report to be released at 11:00 am:

                                        U.S. 13/14 ending stocks    U.S. 14/15 ending stocks
                                       Wheat   Corn   Soybeans  Wheat     Corn   Soybeans
Average trade estimate     0.590   1.170     0.127          0.552         1.716       0.319
Highest trade estimate     0.625   1.279     0.139           0.658       2.282       0.364
Lowest trade estimate      0.565   1.121     0.119             0.475       1.405       0.245
USDA May forecast          0.583   1.146     0.130            0.540      1.726       0.330
                                                All     Hard Red   Soft Red   White       All
                                             Winter   Winter       Winter     Winter     Wheat
Average trade estimate         1.394     0.733           0.455       0.207     1.964
Highest trade estimate         1.445     0.776           0.473       0.217     2.041
Lowest trade estimate          1.330     0.661           0.443       0.197     1.903
USDA May report                  1.403     0.746           0.447       0.209     1.963
U.S. 2013 winter wheat         1.534     0.744         0.565       0.225     2.130

NOPA crush will be released on Monday at 11:00 am. This report will be important as traders try to get a handle on available supply of old crop soybeans.

Chinese Ministry of Agriculture says their farmers in major wheat growing regions have harvested more than 60 percent of winter wheat.

China banning US DDGs seems to coincide with their decision to clean out inventory and empty bins in preparation for this year’s harvest.

Weather conditions across the Midwest are good for the crop as moisture falls in areas that need it.

Economic news for today: 10-year T-note auction to yield near 2.64%, EIA report expected to show usual seasonal decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, OPEC today is expected to leave its production target unchanged.

The chart picture is showing oversold conditions for corn and wheat. Dec corn’s next support is the January 10 lows of 4.35. November soybean contract closed above the 50 day moving average on Tuesday and major support crosses at 12.01.

Feeder cattle continue to lead the livestock complex as they post new record highs on Tuesday. Most live cattle contracts also made new highs due to the futures discount to cash. Beef values were higher with choice up .58 and select up .66. The CME Feeder Index is 196.09.

Spreaders have been the feature in the hog complex. Pork cutout is up .86.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn   +1 1/2
  • Jul Beans   +1 1/4
  • Jul Wheat   +2 1/2
  • Aug Cattle  -.17
  • Jul Hogs    +.25
  • Sep Dlr     -.04
  • Sep S&P     -6.00
  • Jul Crude   +.34
  • Aug Gold   +2.90

Chart of the Day

daily chart

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