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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

What Will Traders Focus On Today?

Dec 19, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 19, 2013 at 5:00 am.  

Grain futures are slightly higher on bargain hunting and position squaring ahead of the holiday.

The South American weather forecast is for more of the same favorable conditions for another record crop. Models add more rain in the forecast for Argentina however the southwestern growing areas are a little dry.

Allendale Ag Leaders Conference is coming to you online this year. All the details are available here.

Weather patterns suggest no bitter cold temperatures that could pose threat to winter wheat crop in US through the end of the year.

Iraq’s state grain board has purchased 350,000 tonnes of wheat, all of Australian origin.

The Argentine exporters are waiting for the go ahead to begin movement of grain. Brazil needs wheat now and will have to shop elsewhere if Argentina can’t deliver.

Trade estimates for weekly export sales data which will be released at 7:30 am are: corn 550 to 750 tmt, soybeans 700 to 900 tmt, soymeal 150 to 300 tmt, soyoil 10 to 30 tmt and wheat 300 to 400 tmt.

Ethanol production is 10% higher year over year. USDA, this month, raised its corn for ethanol projection by 50 million bushels. They now see a goal of a 6.5% increase over last year. Profit margins are running at a positive 31%.

Informa’s acreage estimates for next year’s corn planted acres were raised slightly to 91.846 million acres and they lowered the soybean acres by 1.9 million to 81.929 million acres. In 2013 US farmers planted 95.341 million acres of corn and 76.49 million acres of soybeans.

The Fed is going to begin tapering QE3 by 10 billion dollars a month. This is the number much of trade was expecting.

Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon at 2:00 pm. Trade estimates for on-feed has a narrow range with an average of 95.4% of a year ago. If this holds true it would be the lowest December 1 cattle feedlot inventory in 17 years. Placement numbers have more variation as traders balance the cheaper feed cost with higher feeder cattle prices and better pasture conditions. The outlook still would suggest tight fed cattle supplies through midyear.

Cash cattle traded at 129 in NE and beef cutout values were slightly lower. Choice was down .25 and select was down .40. The CME Feeder Index is 167.36.

Pork product values are under pressure going into year end. The heavy weights and short work weeks have traders expecting even larger numbers after the holidays. Pork cutout values were down 1.98 on Wednesday.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Mar Corn    + 1/4
  • Jan Beans   – 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   + 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  -.07
  • Feb Hogs    -.25
  • Mar Dlr     +.42
  • Mar S&P     -2.00
  • Feb Crude   +.03
  • Feb Gold    -30.30

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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