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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Wheat the Sleeper Is Getting Attention!

Sep 26, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 26, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are mixed with corn and soybeans lower while wheat is higher. Traders are dealing with good harvest weather, a crop report and Washington politics.

I returned late last night from a day trip to Fort Wayne, IN to visit David and Jean Kohli at Allendale’s Branch office. The combines were quiet across northern IN however the early corn had already been harvested. The bean fields look as if they were ready to harvest any day. The standing crop appeared to have the potential of high yields for both corn and soybeans.

The Quarterly Stocks Report on Monday is getting a lot of talk amongst the trade. They are concerned about the tight ending stocks for soybeans however wheat maybe the sleeper. Trade estimates have a wide range as this report will take into account harvest supplies as well as abnormal usage demand due to tight corn supplies.

Weather conditions in wheat growing areas in Argentina and Brazil are less than desirable. Brazil, a large user of wheat is looking for high quality product to offset their internal quality problems.

Harvest results continue to come in as many producers are surprised about bean yields. Some yields have been reported in the mid to upper 60s in MN while SD harvest is yielding near 20 bushels per acre.

Corn harvest results continue to run well above expectations. One has to wonder if the guys with poor yields are just not talking.

Weekly export sales data will be released at 7:30 this morning. Trade estimates are for corn 400 to 600 tmt, wheat 500 to 700 tmt, soybeans 2.3 to 2.8 mmt, soymeal 20 to 100 tmt and soyoil 5 to 10 tmt.

October lean hog futures continues to rally as tight hog supplies, technical buying and short covering provide the parabolic move. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released on Friday at 2:00 PM. Trade estimates are: All hogs 98.6%, Kept for Breeding 101.5% and Kept for Marketing 98.3%. Pork cutout values were up 1.13 on Wednesday.

Cattle futures are being supported by the strength in pork. Demand for beef is sluggish as beef cutout values were mixed. Choice was down .18 and select was up .42. Livestock markets are overbought, use risk protection in these potentially volatile markets.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -1
  • Nov Beans   -8 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   +2 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  -.10
  • Oct Hogs    -.40
  • Dec Dlr     +.15
  • Dec S&P     +3.50
  • Nov Crude   +.13
  • Dec Gold    -2.80


View the Chart of the Day

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