Sep 23, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

When Will Cancellations Be Reported?

Feb 11, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 11, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are mixed as traders adjust positions after yesterday’s report.

The USDA report, released yesterday, had something for everybody. The reduction in ending stocks for corn was made by a quick pencil adjustment in exports. They made no change to feed and residual and will likely not until the April report. World stocks were lowered because of the US adjustment.

Soybean traders are now concerned that cancellations are coming. There is talk that 2 to 10 cargoes are cancelled or shifted to South America this week. The USDA did not change ending stocks in soybeans which is causing some profit taking. All eyes are now on the 8:00 am daily export updates.

The wheat market is finding support from the report most likely due short covering. There is a large spec position in wheat as traders have been selling wheat against long positions in other contracts. Traders are now waiting for the March 3rd conditions report for Kansas. The first weekly conditions report is due March 10.

Farmers have increased sales on the rally in corn. End users have a reasonable supply and basis is drifting lower.

The next major information from USDA will come when they release the 2014 corn and soybean outlook later this month.

On the economic front, the Republicans hope to hold the debt ceiling vote on Wednesday.

Livestock markets are quiet as they try to work through conflicting fundamental news. Beef cutout prices stabilized on Monday with choice up .39 and select down .18. Cash cattle are expected to trade 1.00 to 2.00 this week. The CME Feeder Index is 169.31. Pork cutout values were up .72 on Monday.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    – 3/4
  • Mar Beans   -3 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   +2 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  -.15
  • Feb Hogs    -.10
  • Mar Dlr     -.11
  • Mar S&P     +8.50
  • Mar Crude   +.30
  • Feb Gold    +9.40

Chart of the Day

Beans

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