Sep 21, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Will Chart Picture Predict Price Direction Today?

May 16, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 16, 2014 at 4:00 am CDT.  

Grain futures are mostly higher on bargain hunting against technical support levels.

Allendale’s next Ag Leaders Webinar is Tuesday May 27th at 8:00 PM CDT.  Register here. We will be discussing some of the bio-fuels issues in the headlines.

I apologize for the limited comments this morning but I had a short night in New York City after the NFA Board Meeting and am catching an early flight back to Chicago.

Once the NOPA crush report was larger than trade estimates and once the numbers were released the soybean complex began the sell-off. The export sales numbers were uninspiring as most of old crop sales were switches from unknown to a reported buyer.

Weather conditions continue to weigh on futures in corn even with the little planting progress this week. More than 60% 0f the corn is in the ground and looking great. Soybeans have plenty of time to be planted and more open weather is on the horizon.

Read Allendale’s Meteorologist Ryan Martin’s weather comments to get a more specific forecast.

(Reuters) – Nearly three dozen advanced biofuel companies, including DuPont and Spain’s Abengoa, appealed to President Barack Obama on Thursday to rethink the methodology for setting U.S. biofuel blending quotas.

The drop in futures prices on Thursday had farmers stop selling and some processors raised basis bids.

Corn and wheat are headed for the biggest weekly losses in almost a year. One level of technical support was broken yesterday. Today 4.80 in the July and 4.78 in the Dec will be key areas to watch. A weekly close below these levels could trigger more selling pressure. The corn traders are looking for support at the critical 100 day moving average.

Soybean futures are in a sideways trading range for the month of May. A close above 12.30 or below 12.10 will be important for the direction of the next price move.

Lean hog traders want to believe prices should go up sharply but seem to be running out of patience and exiting long positions. Pork cutout values are up .31.

Cash cattle have been lightly traded so far this week at 144 to 146 which would be steady to lower compared to last week. Beef cutout values were higher on Thursday with choice up .13 and select up .01. The CME Feeder Index is 184.08. Futures remain choppy as money flow and fundamentals battle on price direction.

Markets as of 4:00 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn    +1 1/4
  • Jul Beans   +2
  • Jul Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Jun Cattle  +.17
  • Jun Hogs    -.32
  • Jun Dlr     -.01
  • Jun S&P     +.750
  • Jun Crude   -.02
  • Jun Gold    -.10

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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