Will The Weak US Dollar Help Export Trade?
Sep 19, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 19, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher after the Fed decides not to taper its bond buying program. The US dollar broke through technical support which makes US products more competitive because of currency exchange rates. Traders are now using the rain expected in the cornbelt over the next few days as friendly because it will slow harvest progress.
This morning we will get the USDA’s weekly export sales report. Trade estimates are for corn 450 to 650 tmt, soybeans 650 to 750 tmt, soymeal 20 to 150 tmt, soyoil 5 to 10 tmt and wheat 500 to 650 tmt.
Informa will issue a 2013 Small Grains Summary and their initial acreage estimates for 2014 on Friday at 10:30.
Corn and soybean basis setback by as much as 15 to 20 cents at central IL processors. Bids also came under pressure in the western corn a well.
Harvest reports out of Ohio on some soybeans surprised producers by 8 to 10 bushels better than normal. A Northern IL producer reported soybeans at 52 bushels per acre and hopes it is not his best beans he harvests this year. Corn yields are surprisingly better than most producers were expecting.
Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday kept the central bank’s $85 billion per month bond-buying program in place, saying that they wanted to see more evidence that the economy can sustain improvement before tapering purchases.
Ukraine says their corn harvest will be 29 mmt which allows them to export up to 18 mmt and become the 2nd ranked corn export in the world.
Autumn Moon Festival has China on holiday through the weekend which could keep trading volume light at the CME for the rest of the week.
Livestock futures find support from firmer product values and weaker US dollar. Traders are looking for a pickup in export demand. Beef cutout values were higher with choice up .28 and select up .75. CME Feeder index is 156.77 up .34. Cash hog markets were lower in IA-MN on Tuesday but futures markets continue to find support from fund buying. The pork cutout values were up .91 on Wednesday.
Allendale’s September Ag Leaders Webinar is set for September 24 at 8:00 pm. Signup TODAY at www.allendale-inc.com.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
- Dec Corn +4 1/4
- Nov Beans +10 1/2
- Dec Wheat +7 3/4
- Oct Cattle +.65
- Oct Hogs -.22
- Dec Dlr -.11
- Dec S&P +7.50
- Oct Crude +.68
- Oct Gold +54.00
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