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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Will USDA Change Planted Corn Acres?

Aug 06, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 6, 2013 at 4:45 am.  Grain futures are lower due lack of supportive news. The corn and soybean crop conditions report can out a little better than what trade was expecting at 64% G/E which was up 1% from last week. The 10 year average is 60% G/E. However, the corn in dough stage is only 18% versus normal of 31%. Traders are talking more and more about cooler temps now increasing the frost risks.

Goldman roll, due to start tomorrow, is putting pressure on the old crop/new crop spreads as they are expected to be selling September contracts and buying the deferred. Spreads are also getting hammered because of the announcement by a major ethanol producer that they are temporarily shutting down 9 ethanol plants from late August through September. Maintenance and tight corn supplies were cited as the reasons for their decision. This has caused pressure on the September contract and on corn basis.

China plans on selling 500,000 tonnes of soybeans out of their reserves however the price maybe 15 to 20% higher than Brazilian imported soybeans. US exports of corn and wheat are being bypassed because of the cheap Black Sea values. Brazil is very competitive as it has cleaned up its port delays.

Next Monday is the August USDA S+D report and many traders are expecting acreage changes on corn planted acreage and yield. Rich Nelson reviewed the statistics and found that it is unlikely that USDA change the planted acres on the August report. It is more likely the USDA will change harvested acres and/or yield. The soybeans could see changes due to the re-survey of planted acres in late July. More details are available on the Allendale Advisory Report.

There were 50 deliveries of live cattle against the August futures contract partially through April 4, 2013.  The cattle were delivered in the south where cash markets are at the largest discount to futures. Boxed beef was lower on Monday with choice down .75 and select down .36. CME Feeder Cattle Index was 149.59 up .10. The pork complex remains strong as buyers are looking at the discount of October to August as it approaches last trading day on the 14th. Pork cutout values were .54 higher on Monday. Visit around 7:30 to watch the "Morning Coffee" for more insight.

Yesterday’s Poll Results: What change will the USDA make to yield on the August 12th Report?

Raise 3 to 5 bpa (159.7 to 161.6) 13.22%
Raise 0 to 3 bpa (156.7 to 159.6) 41.95%
Unchanged (156.6) 26.44%
Lower 0 to 3 bpa (156.5 to 153.6) 12.64%
Lower 3 to 5 bpa (153.5 to 151.6) 5.75%


Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Dec #Corn    -1 3/4
  • Nov #Beans   -4 1/2
  • Sep #Wheat   -1
  • Aug #Cattle  +.02
  • Aug #Hogs    +.05
  • Sep Dlr     -.13
  • Sep S&P     -.25
  • Sep Crude   +.39
  • Aug Gold    9.80


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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