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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Will USDA Drop Ending Stocks Below 125?

Sep 25, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 25, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are higher in the overnight session as the battle with uncertainty drives traders to the sideline. The USDA report on Monday, the debt ceiling debate, the potential shutdown of the government and potential fed policy changes have markets on edge.

Thanks to all who attended the September Allendale’s Ag Leaders Webinar last night. If you were unable to attend you can listen to the recorded session here.

Trade average estimates for Monday’s USDA quarterly stocks report for Sept 1 wheat stocks 1.913 billion bushels, corn 681 million bushels, and soybean 124 million bushels.

Allendale’s estimate for old crop bean stocks will be lower than USDA previous estimate of 125 million bushel at 112 million bushels. Exports beat USDA by 13 million bushel and the other categories roughly met USDA hopes. The report will be released on Monday at 11:00 AM.

Allendale estimates old crop corn stocks will be 686 million, bigger than their 655 previous estimates. We believe exports and ethanol came in smaller than USDA hoped.

Watch December wheat futures today due to the 1st close above the 50 day moving average on Tuesday.

NASS officially starts the survey of producers for the data which will be used for the October 11th crop production report. This survey will continue through Oct 5th.

We’ve received reports from Cass County, ND where early bean harvest has surprised the farmer with 36 bushels per acre. Soybeans harvested in Grundy County, IA yielded 62 bushels per acre on a crop that was planted on May 2.

Livestock futures received strength from the confirmation of Smithfield stockholders to go forward with the sale to Shuanghui International Holdings. Harvest getting started in IA has slowed movement of cash hogs plus the discount of October futures to cash index is supporting the buying of nearby hog contracts. The USDA Hogs and Pigs report will be released on Friday at 2:00 pm. Allendale’s estimates are for All Hogs 99.2, Kept for Breeding 101.4 and Kept for Marketing 99.0. Pork cutout values were unchanged.

Live cattle futures are following the lead from the hogs. Cash markets are quiet and beef cutout values are higher. Choice is up .22 and select is up .26. The CME Feeder index is 157.11 up .19. December futures closed Tuesday at the highest level since March 04, 2013.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +2 3/4
  • Nov Beans   +7 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   +5 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  +.07
  • Oct Hogs    +.22
  • Dec Dlr     -.15
  • Dec S&P     -.25
  • Nov Crude   +.54
  • Dec Gold    +7.10


View the Chart of the Day

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