Jul 24, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

World Soybean Movement Sends Signal

Mar 20, 2014

World Soybean Movement Sends Signal

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 20, 2014 at 4:35 am.  

Grain futures are mixed with corn and wheat lower while soybeans are higher.

The wheat market has been the volume leader at the CME as money flow triggers buy stops and breaking of key technical resistant points. The heating up of the situation between Ukraine and Russia seems to be the underlying catalyst.

The news in soybeans would be considered negative under most circumstances. Several cargoes of soybeans have been loaded in Brazil and on their way to the US. There has been confirmation of 5 and rumors of as many as 7 more switched from China to the US.

The USDA in its latest forecast has Chinese soybean imports to be 69 mmt. The forecast from a large Chinese crusher puts imports at 63 mmt.

The USDA’s Foreign Ag Service attaché forecast Brazil’s soybean crop to 88.0 mmt compared to USDA March estimate of 88.5 mmt.

Funds were estimate to have bought 11,000 wheat contracts and 6,000 soybean contracts on Wednesday. They were even on corn.

Elevators along the Ohio River said there were many pricing inquiries by wheat farmers. Corn and soybean basis improved slightly as farmer selling has come to a standstill.

NOAA will be hosting a media teleconference this morning to discuss their spring outlook. Traders will be watching for details starting at 10:00 am.

USDA’s weekly Export sales report will be released at 7:30. Trade estimates as gathered by Reuters News:

                        Trade estimates                Trade estimates
                             for 2013/14                       for 2014/15
Wheat              250,000-500,000            50,000-200,000
Corn                400,000-700,000           100,000-350,000
Soybeans        -100,000-300,000          300,000-600,000
Soymeal           100,000-200,000           30,000-100,000
Soyoil                          0-50,000                      0-50,000

Doane Advisory Service released their estimates for planted acres in 2014. Their forecast is for 90.9 million acres of corn and 83.6 million acres of soybeans. Allendale numbers were 92.2 million acres of corn and 83.3 million acres of soybeans.

Trade estimates for March 1 cattle in feedlots are expected to be down 1.2 percent from last year. February placements are expected to be up 9.2 percent and marketing’s are seen down 3.3 percent. The report will be released tomorrow at 2:00 pm. Beef values are lower with choice down .71 and select down .92. The CME Feeder Index is 173.55.

 Market ready hog supplies are very tight due to PEDv and producers holding back breeding stock is adding to the problem. Pork cutout values are up .27.

Markets as of 4:35 AM

  • May Corn    -3 1/4
  • May Beans   +4
  • May Wheat   -5
  • Apr Cattle  +.02
  • Apr Hogs    +.67
  • Jun Dlr     +.10
  • Jun S&P     -1.50
  • Apr Crude   -.27
  • Apr Gold    -13.30

Chart of the Day

Daily Chart

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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