Jul 25, 2014
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October 2013 Archive for The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/28/13

Oct 28, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/28/13

GRAINS                                

MACRO OUTLOOK:  My outlook for grains is consistent and published daily. The Monday markets were bouncing around today.  The chicago nov beans found a daily high at 1301 1/4.  I beleive support should be found at 1260 and then 1215.  I like selling nov beans and leaning on 1305 as resistance.  I also believe November 8th crop report should help the markets see the overdue harvest lows.  The Chicago Dec corn moved lower and settled at 430 1/4.  Support can be found at 428 and then 412.  I like selling dec corn on rallies to 446.  Today’s settle below 446 should encourage a try for 428.  After 428, the next level of support can be found at 416.  The chicago dec wheat is my favorite leveraged play in the grains.  Support can be found at 680.  I believe buying today’s close at 681 was a nice opportunity.  704 is resistance and then 738.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.  In certain markets, I propose blending in the mini contract as a conservative approach to selling rallies (nov beans 2013) and buying dips (dec wheat 2013).  Good trading and stay vigilant. 

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

DEC '13

JAN ’13

MAR ’14

MAY ’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1230P

12.5

631.25

1230P

21.6

1087.50

1220P

32.0

1600.0

1180P

38.5

1931.25

1220P

10.1

506.25

1210P

15.7

793.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

1200P

6.4

325.0

1200P

13.4

475.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

DEC '13

JAN '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1280C

21.4

1075.0

1300C

24.3

1218.75

1400C

12.6

637.50

1440C

12.1

606.25

1290C

17.4

875.0

1320C

18.2

912.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

1310C

11.2

562.50

1340C

13.

675.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

DEC '13

JAN '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

425P

9.2

462.5

435P

12.6

637.50

440P

21.3

1068.75

440P

23.1

1156.25

410P

4.2

212.50

430P

10.6

537.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

405P

3.2

162.50

425P

9.0

450.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

DEC '13

JAN '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

445C

6.2

312.50

460C

10.0

500.0

510C

5.2

262.50

510C

10.7

543.75

450C

5.0

250.0

475C

6.1

306.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

455C

3.7

193.75

480C

5.1

256.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

DEC '13

JAN '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

670C

9.4

475.0

690P

21.3

1068.75

600P

3.6

187.50

650P

20.3

1018.75

660C

6.0

300.0

680P

16.2

812.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

640C

2.0

100.0

670P

12.0

600.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

DEC '13

JAN '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

700C

7.6

387.50

710C

15.4

775.0

750C

14.4

725.0

800C

13.0

650.0

710C

5.4

275.0

720C

12.3

618.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

720C

3.7

193.75

725C

11.1

556.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

Technical analysis, popularized by Charles Dow, creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896, is based on the theory that a chart of the price of financial assets contains clues to future movements.

Bollinger bands, developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, are used by technical analysts to identify the turning point in an asset’s trajectory. The limits represent two standard deviations from the 20-day moving average, implying that the likelihood of a currency moving outside the band is rare.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com. 

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options —

https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

Tim Hannagan’s All American Grain Report

Oct 25, 2013

Tim Hannagan’s Weekly Grain Report

This is Tim Hannagan its Friday, October 25. The first report of the week was the Weekly Export Inspection Report Monday at 10:00 AM Central time. Corn inspected for near-term export was 32.2 million bushels vs. 22.2 the week prior, and four week average of 21.  It’s normal for demand to pick up at harvest time but this was measurable. Traders are wondering if China is coming in to buy corn like they have been buying beans.  Thinking has been with talk of better than expected yields, there’s one more new low price to come before China and other importers pile in.  This 18 million bushels bought by China is a red flag and China’s buying needs to be watched closely now.  It’s cheaper for Chinese corn users to buy U.S. corn than Chinese corn stocks.  There are areas where corn is 6 to 8 dollars per bushel in China.

 Bean inspections were 59.3 million bushels versus. 47 the week prior and four week average of 27.  Of the 59.3 million bushels, China was in for 45.3 of the total.  For September China’s average weekly inspection purchase was 4.6.  China is piling up purchases on two fronts.  One, it’s harvest time  and the U.S. is the only world port selling beans until South American crops come in next February.  Two, and maybe the most important reason, the drought conditions occurring in Argentina.  Argentina is the world’s third largest bean producer exporter and number one exporter of soymeal and soyoil.  WXRISK.com the weather site has Argentina dry all this past week thru into Sunday.  Longer-term models suggest a very hot and dry Argentina the first two weeks of November. 

Wheat inspections were 20.5 million bushels vs. 27.2 the week prior, and four week average of 32.  China was in for 8 million bushels compared to their September average of 10 million bushels. Brazil was in for 4 million bushels vs. their September average of 6.  Big buyers of large tonnage of wheat for human consumption stepped back.  Buyers of feed quality wheat are disappearing as it’s too expensive to blend wheat into the feed ration now.  December corn is 2.60 under December wheat.  For it to be cost effective the wheat corn/ spread needs to be 1.05 or less wheat over corn.  We look for demand to continue to pick up in November and December as Argentina shuts down their wheat export market, forcing Brazil to increase U.S. purchases.  Additionally, China’s drought in its primary wheat regions still prevails.  U.S. wheat is becoming more price competitive with the European Union wheat as well.  The only problem is the number one world wheat buyer Egypt continues to boycott U.S.  Wheat, as we’re still banning gun sales to them as their internal strife continues. 

 Monday’s 3:00 PM central time crop condition report was our first since September 30th. Bean condition improved to 57% good to excellent condition vs. 53% 21 days ago.  Every key Midwest producer improved.  Corn condition was 60% good to excellent condition vs. 55% on September 30.  Like beans, corn also saw every key Midwest producer increase.  Harvest was in line with expectations with corn 39% and beans 63%.  The better condition number will further talk of bigger production increases on the November 8 USDA monthly crop report. 

Corn and beans have dropped appreciably since the last report Sept. 11. If the November report comes in as bearish as expected, its low price results will be a harvest season low followed by a demand driven market.  With corn demand not yet bullish enough to drive prices up on its own, corn may yet make another new low as the November 8 report gives cause.  Beans are unlikely to take out the 11.65 low as harvest will be over before November 8.  Without weekly harvest results to sell, traders will only have the strong export pace to trade.  The report day break won’t last and should be a great buying opportunity.

 

  Tim Hannagan

  Grain Analyst

  Walsh Trading

  thannagan@walshtrading.com

  888 - 391 - 7894

  312 - 957 - 8108

Join My Mailing List

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/24/13

Oct 24, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/24/13

GRAINS                                

MACRO OUTLOOK:  My outlook for grains is consistent and published daily.  Much like yesterday, the chicago nov beans found a daily high at 1318.  Look for support to come in at 1260 and then 1215.  I like selling nov beans and leaning on 1330 as resistance.  The Chicago Dec corn moved lower and settled at 440 1/2.  Support can be found at 428 and then 412.  I like selling dec corn on rallies.  Today’s settle below 446 should encourage a try for 428.  After 428, the next level of support can be found at 416.  The chicago dec wheat is my favorite leveraged play in the grains.  Support can be found at 690.  I find comfort in getting long and leaning on the 690 level of support.  704 is resistance and then 738.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.  In certain markets, I propose blending in the mini contract as a conservative approach to selling rallies (nov beans 2013) and buying dips (dec wheat 2013).  Good trading and stay vigilant. 

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1290P

1.5

81.50

1260P

14.0

700.00

1220P

31.4

1575.0

1200P

39.0

1950.0

 

 

 

1250P

11.4

575.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1240P

9.4

475.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1320C

3.7

193.75

1370C

9.0

450.00

1540C

5.2

262.50

1600C

5.0

250.0

 

 

 

1400C

5.0

250.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1420C

3.2

162.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

440P

2.4

125.0

440P

12.1

606.25

410P

7.4

375.0

410P

9.7

493.75

 

 

 

430P

7.5

381.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

1.5

81.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

445C

0.7

43.75

460C

5.1

256.25

510C

6.5

331.25

520C

10.7

543.75

 

 

 

475C

2.3

118.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

695P

2.7

143.75

675P

7.2

362.50

630P

7.1

356.25

640P

14.1

706.25

 

 

 

660P

3.5

181.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

700C

2.1

106.25

715C

9.6

487.50

770C

15.0

750

820C

14.2

712.50

 

 

 

720C

8.3

418.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

725C

7.1

356.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

Technical analysis, popularized by Charles Dow, creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896, is based on the theory that a chart of the price of financial assets contains clues to future movements.

Bollinger bands, developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, are used by technical analysts to identify the turning point in an asset’s trajectory. The limits represent two standard deviations from the 20-day moving average, implying that the likelihood of a currency moving outside the band is rare.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com. 

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options —

https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/23/13

Oct 23, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/23/13

GRAINS                                

MACRO OUTLOOK:  My outlook for grains is consistent and published daily.  The chicago nov beans found a daily high at 1318 3/4.  Look for support to come in at 1260 and then 1215.  I like selling nov beans and leaning on 1330 as resistance.  The Chicago Dec corn moved lower and settled at 442 3/4.  Support can be found at 428 and then 416.  I like selling dec corn.  Today’s settle below 446 should encourage a try for 428.  After 428, the next level of support can be found at 416.  The chicago dec wheat is my favorite leveraged play in the grains.  Support can be found at 688 and then 680.  I find comfort in getting long and leaning on the 688 level of support.  704 is resistance and then 738.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.  In certain markets, I propose blending in the mini contract as a conservative approach to selling rallies (nov beans 2013) and buying dips (dec wheat 2013).  Good trading and stay vigilant. 

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1290P

1.3

68.75

1260P

14.2

712.50

1220P

31.1

1556.25

1200P

38.0

1900.0

 

 

 

1250P

11.6

587.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1240P

9.5

481.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1320C

4.2

212.50

1370C

7.2

362.50

1540C

5.1

256.25

1600C

5.0

250.0

 

 

 

1400C

5.1

256.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1420C

3.3

168.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

435P

0.7

43.75

440P

10.7

543.75

410P

6.3

318.75

410P

8.7

443.75

 

 

 

430P

6.6

337.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

1.3

68.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

450C

1.0

50.0

460C

5.6

287.50

510C

6.4

325.0

520C

11.1

556.25

 

 

 

475C

2.7

143.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

695P

2.4

125.0

675P

6.3

318.75

630P

6.4

325.0

640P

13.4

675.0

 

 

 

660P

3.2

162.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

715C

  1.3

68.75

715C

12.0

600.0

770C

16.4

825.0

820C

14.5

731.25

 

 

 

720C

10.3

518.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

725C

9.0

450.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

Technical analysis, popularized by Charles Dow, creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896, is based on the theory that a chart of the price of financial assets contains clues to future movements.

Bollinger bands, developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, are used by technical analysts to identify the turning point in an asset’s trajectory. The limits represent two standard deviations from the 20-day moving average, implying that the likelihood of a currency moving outside the band is rare.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com. 

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options —

https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/22/13

Oct 22, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/22/13

GRAINS                                

MACRO OUTLOOK:  My outlook for grains is consistent and published daily.  The chicago nov beans found a daily high at 1305 1/2.  Look for support to come in at 1260 and then 1215.  I like selling nov beans and leaning on 1305 as a stop area.  Chicago Dec corn moved lower and settled at 438.  Support can be found at 428 then 416.  I like selling dec corn.  Today’s settle below 446 should encourage a try for 428.  After 428, the next level of support can be found at 416.  The chicago dec wheat is my favorite leveraged play in the grains.  Support can be found at 688 and then 680.  I find comfort in getting long and leaning on the 688 level.  704 is resistance and then 738.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.  In certain markets, I propose blending in the mini contract as a conservative approach to selling rallies (nov beans 2013) and buying dips (dec wheat 2013).  Good trading and stay vigilant. 

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1290P

3.2

162.50

1260P

15.0

750.0

1220P

31.6

1587.50

1200P

38.7

1943.75

1280P

1.4

75.0

1250P

12.3

618.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1240P

10.1

506.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1310C

5.0

250.0

1370C

7.2

362.50

1540C

4.5

231.25

1600C

4.2

212.50

1320C

2.5

131.25

1400C

3.6

187.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1420C

2.3

118.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

430P

1.0

50.0

440P

12.5

631.25

410P

7.0

350.0

410P

9.4

475.0

 

 

 

430P

7.7

393.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

1.4

75.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

450C

0.5

31.25

460C

4.2

212.50

510C

5.6

287.50

520C

10.0

500.0

 

 

 

475C

1.7

93.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

695P

3.7

193.75

675P

6.5

331.25

630P

6.3

318.75

640P

13.6

687.50

 

 

 

660P

3.3

168.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

715C

1.7

93.75

715C

11.4

575.0

770C

15.7

793.75

820C

14.4

725.00

720C

1.1

56.25

720C

9.7

493.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

725C

8.5

431.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

Technical analysis, popularized by Charles Dow, creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896, is based on the theory that a chart of the price of financial assets contains clues to future movements.

Bollinger bands, developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, are used by technical analysts to identify the turning point in an asset’s trajectory. The limits represent two standard deviations from the 20-day moving average, implying that the likelihood of a currency moving outside the band is rare.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.  Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options on Futures—

https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/21/13

Oct 21, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/21/13

GRAINS                                

MACRO OUTLOOK:  My outlook for grains is consistent and published daily.  The chicago nov beans found a daily high at 1304.  Look for support to come in at 1260 and then 1215.  I like selling nov beans and leaning on 1305 as a stop area.  Chicago Dec corn moved lower and settled at 444 1/4.  Support can be found at 428 then 416.  I like selling dec corn.  Today’s settle below 446 should encourage a try for 428.  The next level of support can be found at 416.  The chicago dec wheat is my favorite leveraged play in the grains.  Support can be found at 680 and then 672.  I find comfort in getting long and leaning on the 680 level.  704 is resistance and then 738.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.  In certain markets, I propose blending in the mini contracts as a conservative approach to selling rallies (nov beans 2013) and buying dips (dec wheat 2013).  Good trading and stay vigilant. 

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1290P

4.2

143.75

1260P

14.1

706.25

1220P

31.3

1568.75

1200P

38.0

1900.00

1280P

2.3

118.75

1250P

11.5

581.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1240P

9.4

475.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1310C

6.3

318.75

1370C

7.7

393.75

1540C

5.3

268.75

1600C

4.6

237.50

1320C

3.5

181.25

1400C

4.2

212.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1420C

2.6

137.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

430P

0.5

31.25

440P

10.3

518.75

410P

6.1

306.25

400P

6.5

331.25

 

 

 

430P

6.4

325.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

1.2

62.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

450C

2.2

112.50

460C

6.2

312.50

600C

1.1

56.25

570C

4.6

237.50

 

 

 

475C

3.0

150.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

695P

5.4

275.00

675P

7.4

375.0

630P

6.5

331.25

640P

14.0

700.0

 

 

 

660P

4.0

200.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE