Jul 30, 2014
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September 2013 Archive for The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/30/13

Sep 30, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/30/13

GRAINS                                

MACRO OUTLOOK:  Today was the Grain Stock report and the last day of September.  Funds live for this kind of opportunity.  The bearish hold to grains was returned by this report to the nov Beans and the dec Corn.  In nov beans, 1220 is support below 1280 and resistance can be found at 1305 and 1408.  In the Dec corn, prices moved lower today.  This settle below 4.46 sets up 4.22.  In dec wheat, I am bullish.  The support can be found at 680 and 664.  I find comfort in getting long and leaning on the 664 level of support. Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1270P

23.0

1150.0

1260P

28.0

1400.0

1220P

39.7

1993.75

1200P

47.0

2350.0

1260P

19.0

950.0

1250P

24.2

1212.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

1230P

10.7

543.75

1240P

20.7

1043.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1350C

8.0

400.0

1370C

12.7

643.75

1540C

6.3

318.75

1600C

5.4

275.0

1360C

6.6

337.5

1400C

8.4

425.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

1400C

3.2

162.5

1450C

4.4

225.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

430P

5.6

287.5

440P

14.3

718.25

410P

8.0

400.0

400P

8.1

406.25

420P

3.2

162.5

430P

9.7

493.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

1.0

50.0

400P

2.5

131.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

450C

6.7

343.75

470C

5.7

293.75

550C

3.4

175.0

570C

5.3

268.75

460C

4.1

206.25

490C

2.6

137.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

470C

2.1

106.25

500C

2.0

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

655P

7.1

356.25

650P

11.0

550.0

580P

4.4

225.0

550P

3.7

193.75

630P

2.1

106.25

640P

8.0

400.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

630P

5.6

287.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

690C

12.3

618.75

690C

19.2

1093.75

770C

15.6

787.50

820C

13.4

675.0

700C

9.2

462.5

700C

15.6

787.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

710C

6.7

343.75

720C

10.6

537.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options------https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

Tim's All American Grain Report

Sep 27, 2013

This is Tim Hannagan its Friday, September 26.  Thursday’s weekly export sales report unveiled a few surprises.  Corn sales last week were 640,000 metric tons, well under the 850,000 or more needed to be bullish.  China was in for 130,000 metric tons vs. last week 64.  Talk of early harvest in the southern delta of higher than expected yields has importers sitting on their hands  waiting for harvest to begin in the Midwest  with harvest low prices yet to come.  Soybean exports were 2.816 million metric tons with big world player China in for 2.293 of the total.  New crop year sales are 61% of the USDA forecast  vs. the five year average of 44%.  China appears to be overbooking for future needs as a hedge against bad weather in Brazil and Argentina.  While here in the U.S. were harvesting our corn and bean crops, South America is just beginning to plant their season’s crops.  Brazil’s corn crop is about 41% complete but bean growers are waiting for rain before beginning planting their soybeans. The next 10 days looks to bring good rain to southwestern Brazil leaving central regions still very dry.  The 11 to 15 day forecast through to October 9th sees that same region equally as wet with Argentina dry.  Argentina was dry in July, August, and September and some forecasts are predicting continued dryness right through the month of October.  Argentina is the third largest producer exporter of beans in the world and the number one exporter of soymeal and soyoil.  Weather down there needs to be watched very closely now as China looks to continue to overbook  beans just in case things don’t go well in South America. Should the crops get rain needed over the entire growing season, look for China who has been known to cancel previous sales and re- buy on the Brazilian Port at cheaper value.  It’s often said exports this time of year are made in pencil which can be easily erased. 

Wheat exports were 620,000 metric tons up 1% over the four week average. Sales are running eight percent over the five year average.  There’s a lot of issues  supporting wheat prices now.  Argentina has slashed its forecast for this year’s wheat production.  Most traders expect a 10 million ton production at best in Argentina compared to 12 ton posted on the last USDA report.  Brazil gets all their wheat from Argentina and was forced to turn to U.S. ports this year as last year’s crop was cut by bad weather.  Another poor crop in Argentina could reignite  demand from Brazil  for U.S. wheat.  China upped their import projections of wheat to 7.5 million tons  from last month 6.5 million ton due to bad  weather.  Wheat in China is expensive so it’s an easy decision to go into the world market buying cheaper wheat especially from the United States.   December wheat broke thru its major chart resistance at 6.66 this week and breaking the bearish chart trend that began last Jauary.  There’s almost a perfect wheat comparison to the year  ago bull market and this year.  Last June 18, December wheat was trading at 6.50. This week Monday December wheat was trading at 6.50.  Last year June 18, trend following funds were short 87,000 contracts. Entering this week they were short 87,000 contracts.  Last year Monday, June 18 saw weeks end post a 60¢ rally breaking major resistance followed by a rally of $3.00 the next five weeks.  So far this week we rallied 36¢ and broke major chart resistance.  We cannot assume another  $3.00 rally like last year but funds entering the week short 87,000 contracts, 10,000 short of the all time record and holding that 6.40 support for five consecutive weeks not allowing their short positions to make any profits, certainly seems to be a good incentive to  start to cover  or buy back some short positions.  Entering Friday December wheat finds support at 6.64 and resistance at 6.80 then 7.04.   November beans find supported at 13.05 then 12.80 with resistance 13.35 then 13.60.  December corn support still lies at 4.46 with resistance at 4.70 then 4.80. A close under 4.46 sets up 4.22.   Monday at 11:00 AM central time USDA will release its quarterly stocks numbers.  Because the numbers are taken over a four month period, the government has room to offer the market huge surprises either bullish or bearish. 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/26/13

Sep 26, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/26/13

GRAINS                                

MACRO OUTLOOK:  My outlook for grains is bullish until December (Christmas month).  Then, I believe "Tapering" will change the playing field.  My research shows that trading futures is usually a short term play.  The nov soybeans traded lower today as interested parties take a breather for the quarterly report Monday.  If nov beans can register a close above 1335, then a try for 1408 might follow.  I always say the third time is a charm and if we make a move for this 1408 level, this would be the third try.  Remember, support can be found at 1280.  In the Dec corn, prices moved higher today.  I like buying with a stop placed below key support at 446.  In dec wheat, I am bullish.  The support can be found at 666.  I find comfort in getting long and leaning on the 666 level of support.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1270P

15.6

787.50

1260P

19.0

950.0

1220P

34.5

1625.0

1200P

39.3

1968.75

1260P

13.1

656.25

1250P

16.3

818.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

1230P

8.2

412.50

1240P

14.2

712.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1350C

20.2

1012.5

1370C

22.6

1137.5

1540C

10.2

512.50

1600C

8.4

425.00

1360C

17.1

856.25

1400C

15.4

775.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

1400C

8.5

431.25

1450C

8.2

412.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

430P

3.4

175.0

440P

9.7

493.75

410P

6.4

325.0

400P

6.5

331.25

420P

2.1

106.25

430P

6.5

331.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

.6

37.5

400P

1.7

93.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

470C

6.2

312.5

470C

10.3

512.5

550C

6.2

262.5

570C

7.4

375.0

480C

3.7

193.75

490C

5.4

275.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

490C

2.3

118.75

500C

4.0

200.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

655P

9.5

481.25

650P

13.4

675.0

580P

4.7

243.75

550P

4.2

212.5

630P

3.3

168.75

640P

10.3

518.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

630P

7.5

381.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

690C

15.2

762.5

690C

21.7

1093.75

770C

17.2

862.5

820C

14.4

725.0

700C

12.0

600.0

700C

18.4

925.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

710C

9.4

475.0

720C

13.2

662.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options------https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/25/13

Sep 25, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/25/13

GRAINS                                

MACRO OUTLOOK:  The grain train keeps on rolling and my long term outlook is bearish.  However, keep in mind that long term is a difficult trade in the futures market.  I like researching the charts one day at a time.  The nov soybeans traded higher today as they get some momentum to the upside.  A settle above 1335 would be a nice indication of a try for 1408.  Remember, support can be found at 1280.  In the Dec corn, prices moved higher today.  I like buying with a stop placed below key support at 446.  In dec wheat, I am bullish.  The support can be found at 640.  For me, the daily chart has a W formation that looks bullish.  Getting a settle above 666 was a big technical settle today.  I like waiting to onboard long if prices can come back to 666.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1270P

14.2

712.50

1260P

17.5

881.25

1220P

30.0

1500.0

1200P

36.6

1837.5

1260P

11.7

731.25

1250P

15.1

756.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

1230P

7.4

375.0

1240P

13.1

656.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1350C

21.4

1075.0

1370C

24.2

1212.5

1540C

10.6

537.5

1600C

8.6

437.5

1360C

18.1

906.25

1400C

16.4

825.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

1400C

9.2

462.50

1450C

8.5

431.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

430P

3.4

175.0

440P

9.7

493.75

410P

6.4

325.0

400P

6.5

331.25

420P

2.1

106.25

430P

6.5

331.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

.6

37.5

400P

1.7

93.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

470C

6.2

312.5

470C

10.3

512.5

550C

6.2

262.5

570C

7.4

375.0

480C

3.7

193.75

490C

5.4

275.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

490C

2.3

118.75

500C

4.0

200.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

630P

4.6

237.5

650P

10.2

512.5

580P

6.0

300.0

550P

4.4

225.0

610P

1.6

87.50

640P

7.1

356.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

600P

1.0

50.0

630P

4.6

237.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

690C

12.1

606.25

690C

12.1

606.25

770C

15.5

781.25

820C

12.7

643.75

700C

9.5

481.25

700C

9.5

481.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

710C

7.5

375.0

720C

6.0

300.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options------https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/24/13

Sep 24, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/23/13

GRAINS

MACRO OUTLOOK:  I think grains are feeling the cyclical pressures of the downside.  Recent weather reports are calling for wet 9 to 10 days out.  However, let’s ask the simple question--how wet is wet?  The nov soybeans traded higher today without the ability to push through the opening level of 1306 1/2.  I think bear pressures should start to lessen as we get closer to the next crop report.  Support for is still found at 1280.  I am keeping an eye on the 1408 level as a bull target.  In the Dec corn, prices moved lower to 448 1/2.  I like selling any rally over 472 with key support at 446.  I also like buying dec corn with a stop below 446.  In dec wheat, I am bullish.  The support can be found at 640.  The daily chart has a W formation that could be a bullish formation.  Resistance is at 664.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1270P

17.4

875.0

1260P

20.7

1043.75

1220P

32.5

1631.25

1200P

38.5

1931.25

1260P

14.5

731.25

1250P

17.7

893.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

1230P

8.7

443.75

1240P

15.4

775.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1350C

16.5

831.25

1370C

20.2

1012.5

1540C

9.6

487.50

1600C

7.7

393.75

1360C

13.7

693.75

1400C

13.7

693.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

1400C

7.0

350.0

1450C

7.3

368.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

430P

3.7

193.75

440P

10.7

543.75

410P

6.3

318.75

400P

6.3

318.75

420P

2.3

118.75

430P

7.3

368.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

.6

37.5

400P

2.1

106.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

470C

6.2

312.5

470C

10.2

512.5

550C

5.0

250.0

570C

6.6

337.5

480C

3.7

193.75

490C

5.3

268.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

490C

2.4

125.0

500C

3.7

193.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

630P

7.4

375.0

630P

12.1

606.25

580P

6.7

343.75

550P

5.3

268.75

610P

2.7

143.75

620P

8.5

431.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

600P

1.5

81.25

610P

6.3

318.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

670C

11.1

556.25

680C

13.7

693.75

770C

10.2

512.50

820C

9.3

468.75

690C

6.1

306.25

700C

9.2

462.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

700C

4.5

231.25

720C

6.3

318.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options------https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

Trick or Treat

Sep 24, 2013

Trick or Treat?

With Halloween practically on our doorstep Sugar appears to be set up for a classic trick or treat. A "W" or double bottom is in place on the weekly chart. The market has climbed above the center Bollinger band and 9 bar exponential moving average. In addition it has rallied above the center of the "W" that forms the double bottom. The high volume that took place two weeks ago is indicative of a changing of the guard. It tells me short covering on a major degree has likely taken place. Generally a setup like this would create major buying interest.  In this instance it has not. In my opinion getting long Sugar at this level puts the odds in the trader’s favor. Call option premiums are realistic and long futures positions can be entered with relatively tight stops. As I see it Sugar has broken out to the upside.

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

 

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/23/13

Sep 23, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/23/13

GRAINS

MACRO OUTLOOK:  Welcome back from the weekend grain traders.  Last week was the Harvest moon and fall seems to be on us quickly.  The nov soybeans have been trading lower without any noticeable enthusiasm today.  I think bear pressures should start to lessen as we get closer to the next crop report.  Support is still found at 1280 in nov beans.  I am keeping an eye on the 1408 level as a bull target.  In the Dec corn, prices moved higher to 453 1/4.  I like selling any rally over 472 with key support at 446.  In dec wheat, I am bullish with support at 640.  Resistance is at 664.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1270P

17.4

875.0

1260P

20.7

1043.75

1220P

32.5

1631.25

1200P

38.5

1931.25

1260P

14.5

731.25

1250P

17.7

893.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

1230P

8.7

443.75

1240P

15.4

775.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1350C

16.5

831.25

1370C

20.2

1012.5

1540C

9.6

487.50

1600C

7.7

393.75

1360C

13.7

693.75

1400C

13.7

693.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

1400C

7.0

350.0

1450C

7.3

368.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

430P

3.7

193.75

440P

10.7

543.75

410P

6.3

318.75

400P

6.3

318.75

420P

2.3

118.75

430P

7.3

368.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

.6

37.5

400P

2.1

106.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

470C

6.2

312.5

470C

10.2

512.5

550C

5.0

250.0

570C

6.6

337.5

480C

3.7

193.75

490C

5.3

268.75