Sep 18, 2014
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July 2014 Archive for The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

Tim Hannagan's Weekly Grain Report for July 11, 2014

Jul 11, 2014

 Hi this is Tim Hannagan it's Friday, July 11.   November soybeans made a new low today of 10.85 prior to today’s 11 a.m. USDA crop report which is almost a $1.60 off the June high. On the demand side our last weekly export sales report showed most of our demand is going for new crop delivery after September 1. So demand is not a driving force here. Important to note that after monthly crop report by the USDA we often see profit-taking profits. Should the shorts that are profitable in November contracts in soybeans decide to take their fair share we could see a move all the way back to 11.45. But should we continue here midmonth to price in weather and its impact on yields then we should expect that a close below 10.90 will set up the next moved to support of 10.50.  December corn is sitting right on its long-term trend line that goes all the way back to November of 3.90. A close under and 3.65 is next. But should this hold funds look to take profits for the month-end we could expect to move back to 4.10 possibly 4.22. As per wheat we were at 5.60 last January and funds were short a near record 120 thousand contracts leading to a short covering rally back to 7.40. As we entered last week we hit 5.60 with funds only short 61,000 contracts leaving over 40,000 contracts to come to the market. We expect the European nations loaded with high protein milling wheat to continue to under bid the U.S. making us a third or fourth port of origin for milling wheat. Our wheat low is not in yet.

For those interested I hold a weekly grain webinar each Thursday at 3pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.

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Tim Hannagan

 Grain Analyst

  Walsh Trading

  thannagan@walshtrading.com

  888 - 391 - 7894

  312 - 957 - 8108

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Get Ready for Friday's USDA Report

Jul 10, 2014

Corn Traders: Get Ready for Friday's USDA Report

by Sean Lusk
July 9, 2014
 
The June quarterly stocks and acreage report released Monday June 30 didn’t give traders what they were expecting. Traders had thought that the extremely wet spring and late planting would lead to less corn and more soybeans being planted.

USDA News
The report basically showed ample acreage for both. The July 7 crop condition report had all key producers of corn and soybeans come in equal to or over the national average. The crop condition number exceeds the 10-year average. Needless to say, planted acreage, crop condition and weather all were and continue to be bearish for pricing. We have started off this week with lower prices on corn and soybeans on a cool wet 6 to 10 day forecast; however we should expect a buying opportunity with ample short covering with new buyers prior to Friday’s monthly USDA crop report.

Look for a pre-report rally as a good selling opportunity for corn, if weather cooperates. Should December continue to close under 4.20 it sets up 3.90 as a next major support, with 3.78 to follow.

Yield estimates for new crop corn remain conservative in my view until more is known about pollination in to mid-July. I see some analysts forecasting 170 bushels per acre. A yield this high would add a surprising 311 million bushels to last month’s production forecast. It is my belief that USDA should cut feed/residual use while increasing yield in months ahead, how much is the question? Weather and its effect will be the obvious determinant, as grain prices are 90 percent effected by weather at this time of year.

Two Trades
I propose two trades here, one futures and one options. For conservative traders, look at buying the September Corn 380 put for 8 cents or better. The cost is $400.00 which is the risk on the trade plus all commissions and fees. For more risk I propose selling futures on a pre-report or report day rally at or near 4.20 basis December. Risk a close over 4.38 if you get filled risking approximately $1,000.00 on the trade plus all commissions and fees. If weather continues to cooperate, rallies should be sold in my opinion.

Webinar
Walsh Trading’s Senior Grain analyst Tim Hannagan hosts a free grain webinar each Thursday at 3:00 pm central time. Tim has been ranked the #1 grain analyst in the United States per Reuters and Bloomberg for his most accurate price predictions for soybeans and corn in the years 2011 and 2012.
Registration is free and if you cannot attend live, a recording will be sent to your email upon signup. If you would like to receive a weekly invitation to our Webinars, please Subscribe and select Webinar Announcements and Recordings. Register now for Tim's weekly grain webinar on Thursday, July 10th.

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

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