Jul 31, 2014
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The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

Daily Option Run by Dan Burke

Aug 23, 2013

 DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 08/22/2013

GRAINS

MACRO OUTLOOK:  In my opinion, the medium to long term outlook for Grains is bearish.  In review of the daily charts, I would suggest this recent move upward, caused by a sudden appearance of heat and dryness, will run out of momentum and turn to the downside again.  This suggestion is also based on our weather model forecasts and per federal policy.  Let us be reminded the minutes of the FOMC meeting state that economic fundamentals of the U.S. economy are solid again.  Therefore, there is a potential longer term drag on Grains coming from the expectation of a stronger U.S. dollar.   In order to take full advantage of price discovery, we must keep an astute eye on potential yield and incoming weather.  Please take a look at the below listed puts and calls, so we can have a productive conversation about hedging your Grains using real examples.  Keep in mind, commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

 

 

SEPT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1300

2.00

100

1200

15.3

765

1180

6.20

310

1040

7.00

350

960

6.70

343.75

 

 

 

1190

13.6

680

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1100

4.20

210

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

 

 

SEPT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1340

2.00

 

1490

8.00

 

1580

4.60

230

1600

7.00

350

1660

7.10

356.25

 

 

 

1500

6.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1510

5.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

SEPT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

485

3.40

175

440

13.4

670

400

5.70

285

400

7.60

380

 

 

 

420

7.50

375

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

400

4.10

205

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

SEPT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

495

1.40

75

490

14.50

725

600

5.00

250

630

8.00

400

 

 

 

510

9.50

475

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

530

4.20

210

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

SEPT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

630

1.6

80

620

17.3

865

560

6.40

320

530

8.40

420

 

 

 

600

10.5

525

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

580

5.5

275

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

SEPT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

635

1.0

50

700

11.20

560

790

8.60

430

810

15.0

750

 

 

 

720

8.10

405

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

740

6.20

310

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc. 

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 1.312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options--https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

 

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