Apr 20, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

This is Tim Hannagan it's Friday, April 11. Our first crop condition report of the year for wheat came out this week and will come out each Monday at 3 PM central time. This report is leaned on heavily by large traders to determine whether the crop is getting better or worse on yields. This first report showed 35% of the crops in the Western wheat states are in good to excellent condition, down 1% from 36% a year ago. A good crop rating is  65%. When this crop went dormant the last crop condition report November 24, 2013 showed 62% in good to excellent condition. The 27 percentage point drop was the largest ever over a winter period and the worst for this time of year in the last 12 years. Two main reasons were the drought and the polar vortex. This winter subzero temperatures were consistent and often and caused a lot of stress and winter kill in the young wheat seedlings lying dormant. Key states to follow are number one wheat producing state Kansas, then Texas, Nebraska, and Colorado. The key to trading now is to follow one weather report at a time one week at a time. The current forecast by WXRISK.com the AG weather site sees rain falling on the eastern side of those major states we just noted. Should this system track farther east over the weekend taking the rain out of the western wheat belt, look for a higher open Sunday night but should the system hold as projected, followed by another rain system, with even more rain called for the following Thursday and Friday we should expect May wheat to break 6.52 support and test 6.44 major support before short covering or profit-taking starts. This first-rain system begins Saturday, Sunday, and Monday and then a second system starting next Thursday and Friday. Although the rain is bearish for wheat, it's brings light support to corn, as  the rain being forecast across the Midwest and the cold temperatures, look to delay fieldwork being done in the Midwest and planting being done in the southern Delta. We don't expect a big corn rally off the forecast but we do expect corn to hold its support at 4.94. Beans of course are planted later so it’s  not as concerned about planting delays at this point but more concerned about the softening demand with Brazil  noting that China has canceled more beans shipments which may be re-purchased by the US to make up for some of our shortfall on ending stocks. Technical’s read like this. May wheat resistance is 6.68 then 680 with support at 6.52 and 6.44. May soybean support is 14.55 then 14.20 with resistance at 15.15. May corn resistance is 5.14 support 4.94 then 4.88.

For those interested I hold a weekly grain webinar each Thursday at 3pm. I cover everything related and pertinent to the grain market in detail. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.

Sign up Now

Daily Option Run by Dan Burke

Aug 23, 2013

 DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 08/22/2013

GRAINS

MACRO OUTLOOK:  In my opinion, the medium to long term outlook for Grains is bearish.  In review of the daily charts, I would suggest this recent move upward, caused by a sudden appearance of heat and dryness, will run out of momentum and turn to the downside again.  This suggestion is also based on our weather model forecasts and per federal policy.  Let us be reminded the minutes of the FOMC meeting state that economic fundamentals of the U.S. economy are solid again.  Therefore, there is a potential longer term drag on Grains coming from the expectation of a stronger U.S. dollar.   In order to take full advantage of price discovery, we must keep an astute eye on potential yield and incoming weather.  Please take a look at the below listed puts and calls, so we can have a productive conversation about hedging your Grains using real examples.  Keep in mind, commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

 

 

SEPT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1300

2.00

100

1200

15.3

765

1180

6.20

310

1040

7.00

350

960

6.70

343.75

 

 

 

1190

13.6

680

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1100

4.20

210

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

 

 

SEPT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1340

2.00

 

1490

8.00

 

1580

4.60

230

1600

7.00

350

1660

7.10

356.25

 

 

 

1500

6.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1510

5.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

SEPT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

485

3.40

175

440

13.4

670

400

5.70

285

400

7.60

380

 

 

 

420

7.50

375

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

400

4.10

205

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

SEPT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

495

1.40

75

490

14.50

725

600

5.00

250

630

8.00

400

 

 

 

510

9.50

475

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

530

4.20

210

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

SEPT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

630

1.6

80

620

17.3

865

560

6.40

320

530

8.40

420

 

 

 

600

10.5

525

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

580

5.5

275

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

SEPT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

635

1.0

50

700

11.20

560

790

8.60

430

810

15.0

750

 

 

 

720

8.10

405

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

740

6.20

310

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc. 

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 1.312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options--https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions