Aug 28, 2014
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The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/03/13

Sep 03, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/03/13

GRAINS

MACRO OUTLOOK:  In my opinion, the medium to long term outlook for Grains is bearish.  In review of the daily charts, I would suggest this recent move upward, caused by a sudden appearance of heat and dryness, will run out of momentum and turn to the downside again.  This suggestion is also based on our weather model forecasts and per federal policy.  Let us be reminded the minutes of the FOMC meeting state that economic fundamentals of the U.S. economy are solid again.  Therefore, there is a potential longer term drag on Grains coming from the expectation of a stronger U.S. dollar.   In order to take full advantage of price discovery, we must keep an astute eye on potential yield and incoming weather.  Please take a look at the below listed puts and calls, so we can have a productive conversation about hedging your Grains using real examples.  Keep in mind, commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1250P

2.7

143.75

1200P

5.2

443.75

1140P

6.4

325.00

1100P

7.3

368.75

1220P

1.6

87.50

1180P

4.0

200.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

1200P

1.2

 62.50

1100P

1.4

75.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1500C

6.1

306.25

1600C

7.0

350.00

1700C

8.4

425

1680C

10.5

531.25

1550C

3.0

150.00

1620C

5.6

287.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

1600C

1.4

75

1650C

4.3

218.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

460P

7.4

375

435P

9.0

450.0

410P

7.4

375

400P

5.7

293.75

440P

2.7

143.75

420P

5.6

287.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

420P

.7

43.75

400P

2.7

143.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

500C

5.1

256.25

535C

7.0

350

630C

5.2

260

700C

1.7

93.75

510C

3.4

175

550C

5.0

250

 

 

 

 

 

 

520C

2.2

112.50

560C

4.1

206.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

630P

5.7

293.75

605P

9.4

475.0

550P

5.0

250.0

550P

11.7

593.75

620P

3.3

168.75

590P

6.1

306.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

615P

2.4

125.0

580P

4.4

225.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

680C

3.3

268.75

720C

7.6

387.50

810C

7.3

368.75

850C

10.1

506.25

690C

2.1

106.25

730C

6.4

325.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

700C

1.4

75.0

750C

4.6

237.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

 

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options-https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

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