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The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/18/13

Sep 18, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/18/13

GRAINS

MACRO OUTLOOK:  All grains moved higher today.  The Nov beans didn’t even test 1335 again.  In my opinion, this is bullish.  I was hoping to onboard at 1280 as a long, but the price action seems to understand my intentions.  I am keeping an eye on the 1408 level as a bull target.  In the Dec corn, prices moved sideways with exhaustion.  I believe there are too many shorts in dec corn right now.  Resistance can be found at 470.  I believe the opportunity will be found in shorting this dec corn contract if there is a move up to, or through, this 470 level.  In dec wheat, the daily chart is showing signs of a technical reverse head and shoulder formation.  I believe this is bullish.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1320P

5.0

250.0

1310P

21.6

1087.50

1220P

12.7

643.75

1200P

16.2

812.5

1300P

1.7

93.75

1300P

18.4

925.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

1290P

1.3

68.75

1290P

15.5

781.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1380C

5.2

262.5

1400C

20.1

1006.5

1540C

10.4

525.0

1600C

16.4

825.0

1390C

3.5

181.25

1450C

10.4

525.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

1400C

2.4

125.0

1490C

6.3

318.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

450P

3.6

187.5

450P

16.0

800.0

410P

10.3

518.75

400P

5.1

256.25

445P

2.3

118.75

445P

13.7

693.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

440P

1.3

68.75

440P

11.7

593.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

465C

3.0

150

480C

10.3

518.75

550C

16.3

818.75

570C

4.3

218.75

470C

1.7

93.75

490C

8.0

400.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

475C

1.2

62.5

500C

6.0

300..0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

635P

4.0

200.0

630P

18.0

900.0

580P

9.3

468.75

550P

11.0

550.0

630P

2.4

125.0

620P

13.5

681.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

625P

1.4

75.00

610P

10.0

500.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

655C

2.2

112.5

660C

16.4

880.0

770C

8.5

431.25

820C

10.2

512.50

660C

1.3

68.75

670C

13.5

681.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

665C

.7

43.75

680C

11.1

556.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options------https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

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