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The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/19/13

Sep 19, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/19/13

GRAINS

MACRO OUTLOOK:  My long term outlook for grains is bearish, but long term is a difficult trade in the futures market.  Today, the nov soybeans traded down through the 1335 level, but failed to settle below this key level again.  I believe this inability to settle below 1335 is bullish.  Selling rallies seems to be the trade and be aware of its popularity.  I am keeping an eye on the 1408 level as a bull target.  In the Dec corn, prices moved upward to settle at 459 1/2.  I believe the pressure will be to the upside because of the presence of too many shorts.  Resistance can be found at 472.  I believe there is a good opportunity in selling a close above this resistance level of 472.  In dec wheat, the daily chart is showing signs of a technical reverse head and shoulder formation.  I believe this is bullish.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1320P

1.7

93.75

1310P

22.0

1100

1220P

11.6

587.5

1200P

20.2

812.5

1310P

1.0

50.0

1300P

18.2

912.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1290P

15.2

762.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1340C

6.4

325.0

1400C

15.0

750.0

1540C

8.2

412.5

1600C

8.2

412.5

1350C

3.0

150.0

1450C

7.4

375.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1490C

4.3

218.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

455P

1.2

62.5

450P

12.5

631.25

410P

5.2

262.5

400P

337.50

256.25

450P

.3

18.75

445P

10.4

525.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

440P

8.6

437.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

465C

1.0

50.0

480C

9.5

481.25

550C

5.6

287.50

570C

12.1

606.25

470C

.3

18.75

490C

7.0

350.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

500C

5.1

256.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

650P

1.3

68.75

630P

11.1

556.25

580P

6.4

325.0

550P

8.4

425.0

645P

.4

25.0

620P

8.0

400.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

610P

5.4

275.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

665C

1.3

68.75

680C

14.5

731.25

770C

10.5

531.25

820C

12.1

606.25

670C

.5

31.25

700C

9.5

481.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

720C

6.3

318.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options------https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

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