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The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/11/13

Oct 11, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/11/13

GRAINS                                

MACRO OUTLOOK:  My outlook for grains is consistent and published daily.  The chicago nov beans found a daily high at 1288.  Look for support to come in at 1260 and then 1220.  I like selling nov beans and leaning on 1285 as a stop area.  Chicago Dec corn moved lower and settled at 433 1/4.  Support can be found at 418 then 410.  I like selling dec corn for the harvest season.  Today’s bearish settle below 436 should encourage a try for 418.  The chicago dec wheat is my favorite leveraged play.  Support can be found at 680.  I find comfort in getting long and leaning on the 680 level.  704 is resistance and then 730.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.  In certain markets, I propose blending in the mini contracts as a fun approach to selling rallies and buying dips.  Good trading and stay vigilant to your convictions. 

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1250P

11.4

575.0

1260P

30.4

1525.0

1220P

41.2

2062.5

1200P

46.4

2325.0

1240P

8.6

437.50

1250P

26.2

1312.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

1200P

3.3

168.75

1240P

22.3

1118.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1300C

3.1

306.25

1370C

5.2

262.5

1540C

3.6

187.50

1600C

3.6

187.5

1310C

4.2

212.50

1400C

3.0

150.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

1320C

3.0

150.0

1450C

1.3

68.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

430P

5.6

287.50

440P

17.1

856.25

410P

9.2

462.50

400P

9.4

475.0

420P

2.5

131.5

430P

11.5

581.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

2.6

137.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

450C

1.6

87.50

470C

2.7

143.75

600C

4.0

200.0

570C

4.7

243.75

460C

0.6

37.50

475C

2.3

118.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

675P

4.0

200.0

650P

4.3

218.75

580P

2.0

100.0

550P

2.0

100.0

 

 

 

640P

2.6

137.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

690C

12.0

600.0

690C

21.0

1050.0

770C

15.0

750.0

820C

13.1

656.25

700C

7.5

381.25

700C

17.1

856.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

710C

4.5

231.25

720C

11.2

562.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

Technical analysis, popularized by Charles Dow, creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896, is based on the theory that a chart of the price of financial assets contains clues to future movements.

Bollinger bands, developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, are used by technical analysts to identify the turning point in an asset’s trajectory. The limits represent two standard deviations from the 20-day moving average, implying that the likelihood of a currency moving outside the band is rare.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options------https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

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