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The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/28/13

Oct 28, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/28/13

GRAINS                                

MACRO OUTLOOK:  My outlook for grains is consistent and published daily. The Monday markets were bouncing around today.  The chicago nov beans found a daily high at 1301 1/4.  I beleive support should be found at 1260 and then 1215.  I like selling nov beans and leaning on 1305 as resistance.  I also believe November 8th crop report should help the markets see the overdue harvest lows.  The Chicago Dec corn moved lower and settled at 430 1/4.  Support can be found at 428 and then 412.  I like selling dec corn on rallies to 446.  Today’s settle below 446 should encourage a try for 428.  After 428, the next level of support can be found at 416.  The chicago dec wheat is my favorite leveraged play in the grains.  Support can be found at 680.  I believe buying today’s close at 681 was a nice opportunity.  704 is resistance and then 738.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.  In certain markets, I propose blending in the mini contract as a conservative approach to selling rallies (nov beans 2013) and buying dips (dec wheat 2013).  Good trading and stay vigilant. 

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

DEC '13

JAN ’13

MAR ’14

MAY ’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1230P

12.5

631.25

1230P

21.6

1087.50

1220P

32.0

1600.0

1180P

38.5

1931.25

1220P

10.1

506.25

1210P

15.7

793.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

1200P

6.4

325.0

1200P

13.4

475.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

DEC '13

JAN '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1280C

21.4

1075.0

1300C

24.3

1218.75

1400C

12.6

637.50

1440C

12.1

606.25

1290C

17.4

875.0

1320C

18.2

912.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

1310C

11.2

562.50

1340C

13.

675.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

DEC '13

JAN '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

425P

9.2

462.5

435P

12.6

637.50

440P

21.3

1068.75

440P

23.1

1156.25

410P

4.2

212.50

430P

10.6

537.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

405P

3.2

162.50

425P

9.0

450.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

DEC '13

JAN '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

445C

6.2

312.50

460C

10.0

500.0

510C

5.2

262.50

510C

10.7

543.75

450C

5.0

250.0

475C

6.1

306.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

455C

3.7

193.75

480C

5.1

256.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

DEC '13

JAN '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

670C

9.4

475.0

690P

21.3

1068.75

600P

3.6

187.50

650P

20.3

1018.75

660C

6.0

300.0

680P

16.2

812.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

640C

2.0

100.0

670P

12.0

600.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

DEC '13

JAN '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

700C

7.6

387.50

710C

15.4

775.0

750C

14.4

725.0

800C

13.0

650.0

710C

5.4

275.0

720C

12.3

618.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

720C

3.7

193.75

725C

11.1

556.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

Technical analysis, popularized by Charles Dow, creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896, is based on the theory that a chart of the price of financial assets contains clues to future movements.

Bollinger bands, developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, are used by technical analysts to identify the turning point in an asset’s trajectory. The limits represent two standard deviations from the 20-day moving average, implying that the likelihood of a currency moving outside the band is rare.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com. 

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options —

https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

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