Grain and Livestock Outlook
Walsh Trading Commercial Hedging Service is dedicated to providing timely, relevant and quality information. Tim Hannagan, our Senior Grain Analyst provides a weekly Grain Report. Tim has been ranked the #1 grain analyst in the United States per Reuters and Bloomberg for his most accurate price predictions for soybeans and corn in the years 2011 and 2012. Additionally, Mike Bauer, our Senior Livestock Analyst and Ben DiCostanzo, our Senior Technical Analyst provide frequent insights into the Livestock market. Finally, Sean Lusk and John Weyer, Co-Directors of Walsh Commercial Hedging Services provide a variety of insights into the Grain markets.
Grain Straddle Run by Dan Burke for August 14, 2013
Aug 14, 2013
Grain Straddle Run August 14, 2013
By Dan Burke, Chief Options Strategist for Walsh Trading, Inc.
United States Producer Price Index M/M was released at up 0.0%. Expectations were for up 0.3%. The United States Producer Price index Y/Y was up 2.1%.
The December Corn is currently 449-6 last. The Dec Corn 450 straddle (100 days to expiration) is showing a last value of 46-4. The implied volatility is off as the market trades upward in a quiet fashion on the day. It is my opinion that Corn will move lower.
The November Soybeans are trading 1226-2 last. The Nov Bean 1230 straddle (72 days to expiration) is showing a last trade of 79-6. The implied volatility is off as prices trade sideways to downward. I believe the Beans will return to the downside.
The September Wheat is resting at 628-4 last. The Sept Wheat 630 straddle (9 days to expiration) is showing a last value of 17. The implied volatility is offered as prices are trading sideways to upward on the morning. It is my belief that Wheat will see further downside.
Please REGISTER for Tim Hannagan's Weekly Grain Webinar on Aug 15, 2013 2:00 PM CDT. Tim is a Grain Analyst for Walsh Trading and a highly sought after commentator on the grain markets.
It is my opinion that someone looking for hedge protection may look at the following trades in soybeans for protection. I propose buying the November 2013 Soybean 1100 puts for 6.5 cents, for a cost of $325.00 plus commission and fees. For near term, I also propose buying September Soybean 1190 puts for 2.0 cents or better , which would cost $100.00 plus commissions and fees.
As for Corn, I’m looking at the December 2013 Corn options. It is my belief that a hedging opportunity exists in buying the Dec 2013 Corn 4.00 puts for 5 cents, or $250 in cash value plus commissions and fees.
For CBOT September 2013 Wheat, I believe the best hedge on your production can be in purchasing downside protection at the 620 strike for 6 cents, or $300 in cash value. Also for further out protection, a purchase of the October 2013 Wheat 600 puts for 3-6 cents per option, or $187.50 in cash value plus commission and fees offers great value..
These option strategies of buying outright puts defines what our risk on the positions entails The risk is the purchase price paid for each option plus commission and fees. I take pride in my management in managing your risk by using options. This takes more attention, but helps keep our clients away from margin concerns. Our trading analysis of upcoming weather forecasts along with our understading of trend following fund psychology is a major emphasis for our aforementioned trade recommendations. Walsh Commercial Hedging constantly provides our clients with up to date weather models, support and resistance technical levels, and knowledge of grain market influences. We believe a well informed trader will be put in the most advantageous positions.
For more market information, Dan can be reached at 1.312.957.8248 or via e-mail at email@example.com.
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.
Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders. Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.