Aug 28, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

The Grain Report by Tim Hannagan 6/20/2014

Jun 20, 2014

 

THE GRAIN REPORT
by Tim Hannagan
Senior Grain Analyst, Walsh Trading

 

Monday’s crop condition report put corn at 76% good to excellent condition. This is 12% higher than one year ago. Bears in the market are projecting the largest crop in twenty years. Last year this time, we bought long soybeans seven consecutive weeks going into the weekend on adverse weather conditions. This year corn is on the reverse, due to the almost perfect weather conditions. But it is too early to get excited about big crops. Yields are made or loss during the pollination stage we have yet to enter. This is when corn needs two thirds of its growing cycle moisture to reach trend line yields. Should the heat dome in the south west move to the Midwest grain belt and stay for an extended period of time December corn could move back to its old 5.18 highs. But should this split jet stream stay in its same track through pollination, charts suggest December corn will move down to 3.90. 4.38 has been holding a strong support as it was a low from January 12th that started a rally to 5.18. A close under 4.38 sets up a test of 4.20. If 4.38 holds, the next resistance is 4.48 then 4.62. Technically we have now taken away the entire weather premium rally which started January 12th. Continue to trade corn based on the weather and its impact on crop development one week at a time. If they put in our weather premium high early off the cold wet spring, then they will put in the pre-harvest low early as well. We should expect a measurable harvest rally as end users, ethanol producers, feeders and exporters move in to get their share of cash grain that farmers have been holding on to tight for the last two years. Professional users cannot afford again to move into the cash market and pay big premiums as reflected on the Bull Spreads this year.

If you missed my weekly grain webinar from yesterday, you mayView a Recording. I will hold my next weekly grain webinar on Thursday, June 26 at 3:00 PM CST. Register Now. As always, please contact me with any questions or to discuss the market.

Tim Hannagan has more than  37 years of experience in commodity markets and is a nationally recognized expert on the grain markets. His opinions frequently appear in The Wall Street Journal, Barrons, Futures Magazine, Investors Business Daily, and other periodicals as well as international news wire services, online blogs, commodity news services and nationally televised networks.
 
Tim has not only helped his investor clients, but also the media, grain producers and corporate executives wishing to sense, identify and capture the slightest moves in the grain markets. His concise and analytical research reports appear every day.

CONTACT TIM 
Direct: 312-957-8108
Toll-free: 888-391-7894
Email: thannagan@walshtrading.com

Listen to Tim's Daily Agriculture Audio Commentary
Subscribe to Tim's Grain Report and his Weekly Grain Webinar
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.
Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions