Live Cattle Outlook
Market updates from Walsh Trading.
Live Cattle –
In four of the past five weeks Live Cattle made new highs. Last week was no exception. However, after making new highs on Thursday, sellers came in and a pullback resulted. The pullback formed a Bearish Engulfing candle. An engulfing candle formation is a two bar formation. The 1st candle’s open and close is engulfed by the 2nd candles’ open and close. It is considered a reversal formation. It can be either bullish or bearish. It depends where it takes place in the price action. This one is a bearish formation in my opinion. It also formed an outside day where it took out both the high and low of the previous day. It also covered the four days prior highs’ and lows’. This in my view is another negative condition. The weekly chart has also the makings of a reversal formation. Cattle had a strong rally 2 weeks ago and then made another new high this week. After making the new high Cattle couldn’t hold on to it. Buyers and sellers fought it out and ended up closing the week near the open. This is a Doji. The neutral end to the week in my view shows buyers are becoming cautious. A red candle close this week would form an Evening Star Formation. This is considered a reversal signal. If cattle takes out last week’s low at 164.40, sellers could take control. The 38.2% retracement lies in wait at 159.90 and the weekly 8 period simple moving average is at 158.6.
Please join me as I take a look at the Livestock markets on October 22, 2014. If you are not able to attend the webinar live, a recording will be sent to you if you register for the event.
Sign Up Now
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
53 W. Jackson
Chicago, IL 60604
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as an Independent Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
Tim Hannagan's Grain Report for Jauary 23, 2014
Jan 23, 2014
Tim Hannagan’s Weekly Grain Report
This is Tim Hannagan Thursday January 23rd. Tuesday’s weekly export inspection report showed 29.8 million bushels of corn was inspected and shipped last week. This was up from the week prior at 20.9 and the four week average of 21. Most went to Latin America, Mexico and Japan but key world player China was in for only 1 million bushel. Clearly the Chinese are backing away as U.S. cargo ships continue to be rejected due to unauthorized biogenetic grain upon inspections at Chinese ports. Without China in buying we can’t get inspection numbers high enough to be bullish for prices from a demand perspective. Best case scenario for a rally would come from trend following funds still holding a short position of 153 thousand contracts, and with month end next week, they may take profits. Additionally index funds added 60 thousand longs to their big long position last week, suggesting corn breaks are limited and will be bought by them. If weak demand wins out we will take out our 4.20 support and push to 4.06, our old low basis March futures. If 4.20 holds, trend funds covering shorts and index funds buying could have us test resistance at 4.40 before month end.
On soybeans, though the inspections report came in high at 56 million bushels shipped showing demand therefore is still running good; soybeans are more focused on weather now as the majority of crops are in key yield development time through mid February in South America. As I noted on my weekly report last Friday, traders will go home ahead of the three day holiday short beans as Argentina and Brazil looked to get ample rain Sunday through Tuesday. They were right and got a bonus because we started Tuesday with a look at the 1 to 5 and 6 to 10 day weather outlook and saw more rain for Argentina where they recently had been dry. This pushed beans down over 30¢. Short covering Wednesday brought March beans back up to 12.96 just shy of chart resistance at 13.00. Then new selling entered as traders see next week’s South American weather as bearish. We should expect a test of March bean support at 12.60 early next week off favorable South American weather and talk of China turning to Brazil’s ports for future delivery, slowing U.S. exports. Support under 12.60 is 12.30. Brazil’s beans currently sell $30 per ton under U.S. prices. For beans to take out 13.00 it would take a change in the weather to hot and dry. So trade one weather report at a time as weather in South America determines U.S. demand through February. For wheat, last Friday on my report I said when we return Tuesday wheat funds with profits would have nine trading days in the month left to take them and pay bonuses on profits taken before month’s end. Friday’s 5.62 low on March, was 60 cents off the month’s high. I suggested profit taking would occur off our previous 5.60 low area or major chart support at 5.50. With a 5.60.5 low Tuesday and Wednesday we saw short covering to 5.78, 2¢ from our 5.80 chart resistance. It will take a close over 5.80 to trigger more short covering with 5.94 as next resistance. It’s possible with more sub zero freezing temperatures to start the week and talk of winter kill on wheat. But demand remains weak with the U.S. getting the smallest export totals of recent big world buys. A close under 5.60 now sets up 5.46 as next support.
888 - 391 - 7894
312 - 957 - 8108
Join My Mailing List
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS