Tim Hannagan's Weekly Grain Report
Feb 07, 2014
This is Tim Hannagan it is February 7th. The weekly export inspection report came out Monday at 10 AM central time. Beans inspected and loaded on ships were 45.4 million bushels, down from 73.9 the week prior and four-week average of 61. China was in for 30 million bushels of the total versus 47 million bushels last week thus making their second lowest import in three months. We expected lower business as China's in their lunar holiday this week as well as soybeans are being bought in Brazil now at one dollar under U.S. posted prices. Our export business is still good, just no longer great. It should continue to erode into month end. Weekly inspections last February averaged 37 million bushels, March 21 million bushels and April only 10 million.
Corn inspections were 21.6 million bushels down from 29 million last week. Wheat inspections were 11.6 million bushels versus 14.6 the week prior. Both corn and wheat are showing weak demand near-term. Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 577 thousand metric tons of beans were sold last week for future shipment. China was in for 436 of the total versus the two prior weeks of 251 and 259. China was overbooking ahead of this week's lunar holiday closings. Last February the average was 341 weekly and March 305. With soybeans selling one dollar lower in Brazil and harvest underway we have to assume the seasonal correction is near. Additionally, we saw decreases or cancellations of 530 t.m.t. thought to be China.
We have our USDA monthly crop report out Monday at 11 AM central time. The last five reports we broke down after the report as funds took profits and pay bonuses on profits taken. Should the heat dome threatening crops in Brazil said to be coming to an end late next week, coupled with the fact if we come in Monday and get a neutral soybean report with unchanged on ending stocks, March beans could pull back to 12.60. Yet, a 5 million bushel or more cut in ending stocks and talk of a heat dome extending, we will test 13.75 or higher quickly. Since the crop report is late in the market trading day there's time to get the latest weather updates ahead of the report’s release. If we don't get any bullish surprises for grains Monday, we can expect prices to correct. Support on March corn is 4.40 then 4.20 with resistance 4.50 then 4.60. Support on March wheat 5.56, 5.50 resistance 5.96. Support on March beans 13.20, 13.00, 12.60 resistance 13.40 then 13.75.
To view a recording of my weekly webinar held Thursday February 6, 2014 click obn the following link: View Recording
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