Tim Hannagan's Weekly Grain Report for August 1, 2014
Aug 01, 2014
This is Tim Hannagan its Friday August 1. Soybeans began the week with its 3 PM Monday crop condition report. Condition came in and 71% good to excellent condition, down 2% from the week prior and the lowest number of the year. With 38% of the crop having pods being set, we can safely say were in the middle of the key yield development time. Current weather forecasters are calling for below normal temperatures to continue as we head deep into the month of August. This past July was the coolest since 1895 setting up August to possibly break the record. Surely we will have talk of an early frost by month end but early on traders will be questioning the cold weather and its ability to produce yields. Crop tours will be anxiously awaited for and watched. Tour results could show fewer pods and smaller beans in the comments. Many believe that the excessive coolness weather will have no effect on the bean crop. That was not the case the last several years as cool autumns have cut yields. Last Thursday’s Weekly Export Sales Report a demand side report showed massive exports for new crop delivery being sold primarily to China.
We Can Validate the Impact of Demand on the Bean Market once crop size is known, so don’t put a lot of weight on demand size fundamentals just yet. In the meantime. The last four years this time of year or in the harvest, the market was projecting over 400 million bushel soybean ending stocks. The reality was that ending stocks finished less than 200 million bushels. Technicians are excited about the Beans. We have a double bottom that potentially signals very strong points of support and we haven't visited the double bottom point at 10.56 since Monday last week. Support on November new crop beans is 10.55, a close under and 9.50 is next. A close over our 11.20 resistance sets up 11.50 as next resistance.
For those interested I hold a weekly grain webinar each Thursday at 3pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.
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Senior Livestock Analyst Mike Bauer and Senior Technical Analyst Ben DiCostanzo will host their Livestock Oultook webinar thei Wednesday August 6, 2014 at 3:00 PM CDT. If you cannot attend a live, a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.
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