Tim Hannagan's Weekly Grain Report for Feruary 28, 2014
Feb 28, 2014
This is Tim Hannagan, it's Friday, February 28th. Our first demand-side report came with the weekly export inspection report Monday at 10 AM central time. Wheat demand remains weak with inspections at 16 million bushels. 30 or more is needed to be bullish. Corn came in at 31 million bushels inspected and shipped, down 1 million bushel from the week prior. It's not a great demand signal but a good one. Demand continues up and should have traders looking for a bullish March 10th crop report with higher export projections and lower ending stocks and then a bullish March 28th planting intention report as we are looking for 2 to 4 million fewer corn acres planted.
Soybeans stole the show this week. Beans inspected were 46 million bushels versus 54 the week prior and the four-week average of 57. What needs to be noted, of the 46 million bushels that were shipped, China was in for only 25 of the total. The five prior weeks had China in for 39, 47, 34, 44 and 45. The futures were higher on the 46 million bushels still being too much shipped considering that we only have 150 m.b. ending stocks, the second lowest on record. China is backing off shipments now and the last two weeks of export sales were at or near marketing year lows. We are seeing the previous very bullish pace softening, which indicates a top should be near. Last March beans shipments fell apart. As March began we saw 44 m.b. inspected and the next week 17 and lower the following weeks at 8.9 and 18.4. Though we may have put in a near-term top prior to the March 10th USDA report, we can't expect a seasonal large break until after the report as funds fear the report may raise exports enough and lower ending stocks from the second lowest on record to the lowest. Any post March 10 break would be limited to 13.25 as traders will wait for the March 28 planting intention report for acres inside. Beans have to stay high enough to ensure beans acres to be planted don't fall too far under the year prior with the low inventories. The wildcard this week was the President of the Ukraine being thrown out of office and leaving their grain exports in jeopardy. They are a major corn supplier and wheat exporter in the area and that certainly sets up the US to garner that business. Like the bean inspection report, Thursday's weekly export sales report showed declining sales overall but still too much Chinese purchases at 287 thousand metric tons. Overall sales were 367 thousand metric tons. Last February 28th, a year ago, we saw exports of 684 thousand metric tons then in March 392, 66, 107 and 66. March saw inspections shipped and export sales collapse as Brazil overtook the U.S. as the world's primary port of origin for beans.
Support on May wheat is 5.80 resistance 6.18. May corn support is 4.50 resistance 4.70 then 4.82. May bean support is 14.00 then 13.75. Resistance 14.50. Just a reminder I hold a weekly webinar grain discussion each Thursday at 3 PM central time. I discuss every aspect of the grains for about one hour. It's free, so go to the Walsh website for information, or register below.
Webinar Sign Up
888 - 391 - 7894
312 - 957 - 8108
Join My Mailing List
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as an Independent Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. ("WTI") shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.