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September 2013 Archive for The Ted Spread

RSS By: Ted Seifried, AgWeb.com

Ted is the Chief Market Strategist and Vice President in charge of the Zaner Ag Hedge Group and specializes in agricultural hedging employing various strategies using futures, futures spreads, outright options and option combinations. He believes it is paramount to be able to use different strategies to adapt to market conditions. Ted works with large to mid size grain and livestock producers and end users in North, Central and South America.

Could Corn and Wheat be putting in a Bottom?

Sep 26, 2013

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.        

Grains have had a quiet week in front of Monday's Quarterly Grain Stocks report.  But corn and wheat have quietly set up an interesting technical picture.  Could corn and wheat be setting up for a rally?  

On Monday the USDA will release Quarterly grain stocks figures.  This report will shed light on old crop ending stocks, new crop beginning stocks and the strength of current demand.  This report could certainly set the tone for grains for the next few months.  So to a large extent the technical set ups in the grains markets may not mean much if the report is very bearish.  But it is really interesting to see what the corn and wheat charts are doing in front of this report.  

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=tseifrie

Wheat is attempting to break out to the upside after sitting on lows for almost two months.  Ideas that Brazil may have to be a big importer of wheat in the near future has helped pull wheat off lows.  Now, it is certainly possible that wheat has another new leg lower coming, but the chart could also be setting up for a rally at this point.  In the last few days wheat has 35 cents and is now running into major resistance.  If wheat were to get some help from a bullish report it could break resistance and push higher.  

Corn has not yet had a big rally off of lows.  However corn could be in the process of putting in a longer term double bottom.  Fundamentally it is difficult to build a strong case for the corn to rally into harvest, but at the same time the negative news is old news too.  If Monday's USDA report is bullish for corn it could set up for a rally and possible even put in harvest lows.  That is a big "if" though.  

Sign up for our Morning Ag Comments: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=17

Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   

December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have corn near $5.00 and soybeans near $12.00. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Please check out my Blog at: http://tedseifriedfutures.com/

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie   

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.  The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

Waiting for Answers in the Grains

Sep 24, 2013

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.        

It has been a fairly quiet first two days of the week in grains as the trade braces for the upcoming USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday.  It is also the time of year when many market participants are busy getting into or getting ready for harvest.  The fact that this has been a strange weather year adds to the unknown as we wait te get a better idea of harvest results.  

The upcoming USDA stocks report could have a big impact on grains markets.  It will solidify ending stocks numbers for the old crop, determine beginning stocks numbers for the new crop and give us a window of insight into the demand side of the equation.  This is a difficult report to predict however with last years drought drawing production numbers into question and high prices effecting demand.  For example ethanol demand for corn was around 90 million bushels less then the USDA estimate by our calculations.  Now this may have been a way for the USDA to offset what could have been a lower production number or it could mean a higher then expected stocks number.  Either way this report will help set the tone for months to come.  

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=tseifrie

The bigger question right now is production.  There has been much debate over the last month and a half about how the strange weather this year has effected production.  With a cold and wet spring causing planting delays, a cold July and a hot and dry August it is very difficult to know exactly how crops fared on a national level.  The answer to this question comes from combines.  As we work through the harvest we will have a much better idea of how good or how bad this crop year was.  Initial reports have been better then expected for corn and soybeans, however harvest thus far has been mostly in areas that have had near ideal conditions.  As harvest moves north into Central and Western Illinois and Iowa and Minnesota and the Dakotas it is certainly possible that yields start to come in below expectations and partially of fully offset the better results we are getting further south.  

It seems that we will have a big corn crop and a big carry over figure.  At this point the question will be how big.  The bottom line for soybeans is that things may not be as good as we were thinking in July or as bad as we were thinking in August.  Really we will not totally know until half way through harvest when we are seeing what is actually out there.  It does seem that what the market is saying now is that assuming the USDA numbers are correct and the drop in crush numbers last week are accurate.  This could mean we may not need to see higher prices to price ration demand.  So, now it may be a waiting game to see more harvest results.  

Sign up for our Morning Ag Comments: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=17   

Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   

December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have corn near $5.00 and soybeans near $12.00. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Please check out my Blog at: http://tedseifriedfutures.com/

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie 

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.  The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

Have We Seen Highs in Soybeans for a While?

Sep 19, 2013

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.        

Hey everyone!  Its been a while since my last post as I was in Minnesota and The Dakotas looking at crops, visiting with clients and participating in a marketing panel at the Big Iron Farm Show in Fargo, ND.  I must say we saw a lot of variation from field to field but overall we were quite impressed with corn and soybeans.  A hearty thank you to everyone for the wonderful hospitality.  We will be back soon!

**************************************************  

Soybeans have sure had a hard time holding a rally since the USDA confirmed a lower yield and lower ending stocks on the September USDA report last Thursday.  Even the day after the report soybeans were unable to follow through and ended up giving back much of the gains.  Since then soybeans have had a few attempts at a rally in the night session only to find selling pressure in the day/pit session.  Price action has been weak and it seems that the strong buying interest that fueled the sharp rally in August has softened for now.  There are a few factors that have slowed the sharp rally in the soybeans.  

First off, most of the dry areas have gotten much needed rain.  Now, rains may have been too late to save yield potentials but at the very least the rains have eased major crop stress and helped fill pods.  At this point weather is becoming less of a factor as the damage has been done but rains have now stabilized conditions in most areas.  An early frost would be a different story, but for now we are not seeing any widespread frost issues in the near future.  

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=tseifrie

A second reason the soybeans have simmered down is that the September USDA report, while certainly more bullish then the August USDA report, may not have been bullish enough to justify the rally leading up to it.  To some extent it seems like the market was factoring in a lower yield and carry over then what the USDA gave us in the report.  Now, there are two arguments here as well.  The bull camp will suggest that the USDA is just stair stepping into lower yields while the bear camp will argue that the USDA wanted to make a one time "rip the band aid off" change and that the USDA will not be lowering yield projections significantly in the future.  I tend to think that with the recent rains the second argument may be closer to the reality of things.  

Lastly, but maybe most importantly, soybeans have been under pressure this week on the idea that demand may be slightly shrinking at current price levels.  Export inspections and NOPA crush numbers showed that there are fewer soybeans being moved at current levels.  This could be an initial shock reaction to the sharp turnaround off of lows and the ensuing rally but it could also be the case that price rationing soybeans would happen at or not far above current prices.  The USDA is estimating a 150 million bushel carry over which is fairly tight, but higher prices could slow export demand and maybe even encourage imports from South America.  It is important to understand that we are in a different situation then last year.  Even though soybean production in the US this year might not be much better then last year's drought there are a lot more soybeans in the world today.   

Last year the US had a drought directly after South America which put the world on a tight balance sheet.  This year South America had a very big crop and they are gearing up for increased acreage for their next growing season which is quickly approaching.  The world balance sheet is no where near as tight as it was last year which means that if US prices get too high global and potentially even domestic end users may look elsewhere to fill their needs.  

The bottom line for soybeans is that things may not be as good as we were thinking in July or as bad as we were thinking in the middle of August.  Really we will not totally know until half way through harvest when we are seeing what is actually out there.  It does seem that what the market is saying now is that assuming the USDA numbers are correct and the drop in crush numbers are accurate we may not need to see higher prices to price ration demand.  So, now it might be a waiting game to see harvest results.  

Sign up for our Morning Ag Comments: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=17    

Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   

December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have corn near $5.00 and soybeans near $12.00. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Please check out my Blog at: http://tedseifriedfutures.com/

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.  The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

The Rally in Soybeans May not be Over

Sep 05, 2013

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.        

After two days of weak price action and a failed test of contract highs, November soybeans filled most of the gap but came back strong and closed higher on the day.  This is a technical buy signal and could lead to a test of the $14.10 highs or even a new leg higher.  

Many times bull markets will gap higher at some point.  When this happens the gap becomes a target on the chart.  What happens when the market gets back into the gap can be a telling story.  If a bull market is any good it usually fills a gap about 3/4 of the way and reverses.  If the gap gets filled and the market closes below the bottom of the gap then the bull run may be ending.  In this case, November soybeans filled almost 3/4 of the gap, reversed off the low, rallied over 30 cents and closed not only higher on the day, but back above the short term 9-day moving average.  This could certainly be seen as a technical buy signal and may indicate that soybeans will go retest the recent highs and could even be setting up for a run to new highs.  

From a fundamental standpoint soybeans have had a reason to rally in recent weeks.  Weather got hot and dry at a bad time for soybeans causing many analysts to lower their yield estimates.  Lower yields mean lower production and tighter balance sheets and the potential need to price ration.  For the moment the weather concerns and prospects for lower production have taken center stage.  There are some limiting factors in the long run however.  For one this year is much different then last year.  Currently the USDA is reporting the soybean crop condition at 54% good to excellent while this time last year soybeans were rated at 30% good to excellent.  We can argue that the USDA is wrong, but as I have said in the past - ultimately the USDA numbers are the numbers we have to go by.  

Sign up for our Morning Ag Comments: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=17

Aside from crop conditions, the bigger difference for this year compared to last year is the situation in South America.  Going into our drought last year South America had just come out of a drought growing season with sub-par production.  This year South America has a monster crop and is gearing up to increase acreage on their next crop.  This means that there are more soybeans in the world then there were a year ago and if US prices continue to rise South America could take a big chunk of our export business and even begin to import to the US on a larger scale.  

Corn and wheat may also be a drag on soybean prices as the outlook for both is rather bearish.  A big corn crop and lagging demand could result in some of the biggest corn stocks we have seen in recent history.  This will likely continue to keep pressure on corn prices.  Wheat stocks are also large and there is plenty of wheat in the world.  Because of this the US has missed out on some export business due to more competitive prices abroad.  

However, for the moment it seems that the soybeans might be poised for some more strength.  It seems that most of the factors that could eventually put a lid on soybean prices are being overlooked for now.  Right now weather is front and center and weather is causing concern.  This could continue through harvest but do keep these factors in mind.  

Analysts tend to agree that the hot and dry August into September is lowering yield potential but disagree by how much.  Next Thursday the USDA will chime in on the matter.  If they have a different opinion and choose not to lower yield as much as the market is expecting that could end this strength at least until we get into harvest and see what we really have.  Also, if the rains advertised for this weekend are better then expected it may take some wind out of the sails.  Aside from that, it does seem that the soybeans could find more strength in the days to come.  

I am headed to North Dakota next week to be a part of a marketing discussion panel at the Big Iron Farm Show on Tuesday, September 10th at 1:30.  If your in the area come say hi.  Otherwise, I'll be back to sharing my thoughts the following week.  Hope to see you at Big Iron!  

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=tseifrie

Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   

December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have corn near $5.00 and soybeans near $12.00. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Please check out my Blog at: http://tedseifriedfutures.com/

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.  The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

Weak Price Action In Grains Despite Less then Expected Rain

Sep 03, 2013

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.        

Soybeans were sharply higher after getting less then expected rains over the long holiday weekend, gaping higher and at one point were up over 50 cents.  Corn and wheat followed during the night session but had a hard time holding on to strength early on in the pit session and found mounting selling pressure as the day wore on.  Soybeans still posted an almost 30 cent gain on the day, however price action overall in the grains was much weaker then in the night session.  

Less then expected rains over the long labor day weekend fueled concerns about declining yield potential, particularly in the soybeans.  Hotter then expected temperatures added to the stress.  Soybeans led the charge Monday night gaping higher and at one point were up over 50 cents.  Corn and wheat followed in the night session but things seemed to change as soon as the pit opened.  

While less then expected rain is not great news for corn it may be too late to impact yields significantly enough to lower production to levels where the balance sheet would be tight and price rationing would be needed.  It might be argued that the hotter then expected temperatures over the holiday weekend helped push corn toward maturity and help soothe concerns over an early frost.  At the same time US wheat seems to be over priced on the global market as we are consistently reminded of every time we loose the bid on optional origin tenders.  

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=tseifrie

Soybeans too may be close to putting in highs for the time being.  Twice in the last 10 days the November soybean contract has tried to break through contract highs at $14.10 and has failed both times.  While I do believe in the saying - keep knocking on the same door and eventually its gonna open - it also seems that soybeans have had a hard time with this in recent history.  Back in mid July the November soybean contract tried 7 times to get through $13.00 and failed before moving to recent lows at $11.62.  Now, as we all know the November soybeans eventually smashed through $13.00 due to weather issues and yield concerns, but could $14.10 be the new $13.00?  

Soybeans could certainly go higher, but it could be the case that they have reached or are close to reaching their upside objective until more is known about actual harvest yields.  

Sign up for our Morning Ag Comments: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=17

Feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email if you would like to talk about your marketing plan, the markets, weather, or just to visit.   

December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

December Wheat Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have corn near $5.00 and soybeans near $12.00. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Please check out my Blog at: http://tedseifriedfutures.com/

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=tseifrie

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.  The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.

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