Grains Continue to Rally off Recent Lows
Nov 27, 2012
TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.
Grains continue to post gains after putting lows in earlier this month. Today corn was up over 12 cents with wheat and soybeans well over 20 cents higher. There is little in the way of new news after the holliday trade. Japan did buy some US wheat today, and there continues to be weather concerns in the US and South America. The wheat conditions, especially in the plains are a concern as this the lowest rated crop in recent years. In South America too much rain is causing planting delays. This has had a bullish effect on the soybean market because the delay could be widening the window of opportunity for US soybean exports, however rallies driven by "too wet" conditions are rarely long lasting and if the rain continues to fall it will be very beneficial to the crop that has been planted.
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The macro economic picture continues to be fuzzy with continued issues in Europe, global unrest, and the US fiscal cliff. Feelings on these matters have gotten a little more warm and fuzzy in the last few days but none of these problems have gone away. I assume that the macro economics will continue to be a factor in the grain markets for some time and will need to be watched.
The rally off of lows looks to be mostly corrective in nature. If this is the case it could be providing producers with some good pricing opportunities. We are not getting too aggressive quite yet as we wait to see the extent of this strength, but will do so on signs of weakness.
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With high volatility in a market, option strategies may be a good tool for hedgers and specs alike.
December Corn Daily chart:
January Soybeans Daily chart:
December Wheat Daily chart:
All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have new crop corn above $7.00 and new crop soybeans above $15.00. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.
In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.
Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.
Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or email@example.com
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Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed. The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.
FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION