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The Ted Spread

RSS By: Ted Seifried, AgWeb.com

Ted is the Chief Market Strategist and Vice President in charge of the Zaner Ag Hedge Group and specializes in agricultural hedging employing various strategies using futures, futures spreads, outright options and option combinations. He believes it is paramount to be able to use different strategies to adapt to market conditions. Ted works with large to mid size grain and livestock producers and end users in North, Central and South America.

Grains Cool Off in Front of Rain Chances

Jul 17, 2012

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.   

Grains had a relatively quiet day today, compared to the last month and a half.  We did have news going into the night session with the USDA showing sharp declines in corn and soybean conditions.  The crops are looking poor with now only 31% of corn in the good to excellent category and only 34% of the soybeans.  The continued decline in conditions may force the USDA to keep lowering yield projections.

In a fairly high volume night session we saw some large sell orders come into the market during Asian market hours, specifically in soybeans.  The talk is that a large Asian importer may be taking profits on a long futures hedge position.  Could this mean cargo cancellations in the near future?

Options on Beans for People Who Don`t Know Beans About Options: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=8&ap=tseifrie

On the weather front, forecasts are looking for about 60% coverage with totals of .10-.50 inches over the next 3 days.  The forecasting models are still disagreeing over the details which is strange so close to the event.  The market also seems to not know what to expect as we saw a sloppy, two-sided trade day that ended mostly unchanged.

For the near term we will be watching radar closely to see if and where we get some rain.  Totals do not look good enough to end stress in most areas but could be very beneficial in others, especially for the soybeans.  Longer term high prices will work to ration demand, and at some point weather will not matter much anymore - what's gone is gone.

CME Options On Futures: The Basics: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=9&ap=tseifrie

With high volatility in a weather market, option strategies may be a good tool for hedgers and specs alike.

December Corn Daily chart:

November Soybeans Daily chart:

All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have new crop corn above $7.00 and new crop soybeans above $15.00. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.

Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.

Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Please check out my Blog at: http://tedseifriedfutures.com/

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=Seifried

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed. The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION

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COMMENTS (1 Comments)

longkansascitywheat.wordpress.com - Nashville, TN
Gee, Ted, why such a grouchy bear lately? But we do like alot the latest intrigue in the export cash market!
1:03 AM Jul 18th
 
 
 
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