The Ted Spread
Ted is the Chief Market Strategist and Vice President in charge of the Zaner Ag Hedge Group and specializes in agricultural hedging employing various strategies using futures, futures spreads, outright options and option combinations. He believes it is paramount to be able to use different strategies to adapt to market conditions. Ted works with large to mid size grain and livestock producers and end users in North, Central and South America.
Apr 02, 2012
The USDA released the first weekly Crop Progress report of the year this afternoon. Because of the ideal weather in most areas through the bulk of March Traders were looking for corn to be 5-7% planted at this point, compared to 1-2% last year. The USDA is reporting corn plantings at 3% as compared to 2% last year and 2% 5-year average. The biggest drag on planting was Texas reporting 48% planted vs 53% last year and 50% 5-year average. Aside from slower then usual plantings in Texas we did see some states post progress numbers that we would not expect to have started planting this early in the season. Some standouts being: Illinois at 5%, Indiana at 1%, Missouri at 7%, Michigan at 2%!?! Nebraska at 1%, Ohio at 1% and Tennessee at 15%.
With the USDA reporting planting progress at a much slower pace of 3% compared to the trade expectation of 5-7% we could expect to get a bullish reception to this report. The trade expectations may have been a bit optimistic however, considering that in many areas crop insurance does not allow planting for another 2-3 weeks. If the current forecast holds we could be set to see a huge jump in planted acreage in short order. Texas will get planted, and this report reflects the fact that conditions are nearly ideal and we are ready to go.
For my brave friends in Michigan who have started planting corn, please call me as I would love to buy you lunch! HoRah!
See December Corn Daily chart:
This means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have new crop corn in the $5.50 range. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the strategies that I am currently using.
In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.
Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.
Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or firstname.lastname@example.org
Please check out my Blog at: http://tedseifriedfutures.com/
Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=Seifried