Planting Progress 6/11
Jun 11, 2012
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Planting Progress 6/11
The USDA released the weekly Crop Progress report this afternoon. With hot and dry conditions at the end of last week, traders are looking closely at the effect that might of had on the condition of crops. However, many of the dry areas did get some rains today. With the monthly USDA supply/demand and crop production report coming out tomorrow the effect of this report may be short lived.
The biggest factors for direction in the near term will be weather and the USDA report tomorrow. If weather turns wetter in weeks to come then we could be getting near highs for the next few months, however if a hot and dry pattern persists we could continue to rally prices for now.
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Corn condition did take a hit from the hot and dry conditions late last week. The USDA is reporting the corn crop at 66% good to excellent down 6% from last week at 72%. This represents an 11% drop in conditions over the past three weeks. Also, corn conditions are 3% lower in the good to excellent category then last year which was at 69% at this time.
See December Corn Daily chart:
Wheat numbers were mixed with the Winter Wheat crop condition improving by 1% to 53% good to excellent compared to 52% last week and 35% last year. Spring wheat conditions declined 3% to 75% good to excellent compared to 78% last week and 68% last year.
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See December Wheat chart:
The USDA is reporting a 5 % decline in soybean conditions at 60% good to excellent compared to 65% last week and 67% last year.
See November Soybean Daily chart:
The reaction to this report could be slightly bullish for corn and soybeans because of the 6% and 5% drop in the good to excellent category respectively, however the crop still looks good as long as weather cooperates in weeks to come. Wheat could find a mixed reaction with winter wheat conditions improving slightly and spring wheat conditions declining. Here again though, both winter wheat and spring wheat conditions are good overall.
All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have new crop corn in the $5.30 range and new crop wheat in the $6.70 range. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the strategies that I am currently using.
In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.
Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.
Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or firstname.lastname@example.org
Please check out my Blog at: http://tedseifriedfutures.com/
Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=Seifried
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