Walsh Trading: Afternoon Grain Comments
Andy is a seasoned grain market analyst and the senior account executive at Walsh Hedging. His main focus is assisting producers and end users to better hedge their investments through his various market strategies over his years of experience working on the grain floor.
Walsh Commercial Hedging 4/09/12
Apr 09, 2012
Good afternoon. The grain complex experienced a choppy two-sided trade during the day session after trading higher in the overnight trade but falling apart in the middle of the night. May corn finished at 649, down 9 1/4 while new crop December corn closed unchanged. Unwinding of old/new crop corn spreads throughout the day weighed on old crop corn. May soybeans finished down 3 at 1431 and new crop November beans was up a ½ cent at 1382. Traders liquidated long holdings in corn and beans amid worries of possible bearish surprises in the WASDE report tomorrow morning. Wheat turned up a few cents closing up 4 ½ cents at 643 on position squaring before the report. U.S corn supplies in the report are expected to fall to a 16-year low creating razor-thin supplies before the fall harvest. Here are the following tables for grain and bean carryouts:
Average Range USDA(11/12)March
Corn 0.717 0.626-0.801 0.801
Soybeans 0.246 0.225-0.275 0.275
Wheat 0.796 0.740-0.825 0.825
Bean and corn traders will also find out how much the corn and bean production in South America is going to be down, too. I could see a surprise in soybean production in either Argentina or Brazil.
Crop progress just came out and showed that corn was 7% planted vs. 3% last week. Illinois came in at 17% planted vs. 5 % last week. I expect that number to explode after this week because the insurance safe dates will have been met and the 10-15 day weather outlook looks favorable for planting. However, Mother Nature can throw a curve anytime so be prepared.
Give us a call to hear what we’re doing to help protect our producers at 800.933.5449 or email us at email@example.com
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