Walsh Commercial Hedging 4/4/12
Apr 04, 2012
Good afternoon. Chicago wheat was the big seller of the day and weighed on corn and beans, too. May wheat finished down 18 3/4 at 639 1/4 as continued talk of favorable weather in U.S and rain in the forecast for parts of Europe pressured the market. May corn finished down 1 ½ at 656 ¾ and new crop finished down 1 ¼ at 544 ¼. Old crop corn was supported earlier in the session on continued talk of the lack of producer selling and strong cash basis levels but eventually the higher dollar and the weakness in wheat weighed on corn. The bean complex had a choppy two sided trade with May beans finishing up 2 ¾ at 1419 ½ and new crop November beans was down 3 ¼ at 1375 ½. The private analytical firm Informa Economics cut its outlook for Brazil and Argentina soybean harvests. They cut its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to 66.5 million tons from its previous estimate of 68 million tons. Informa also cut its forecast for Argentina’s soybean output by 2.5 million tons from last month to 45 million. For corn, Informa kept Brazil production unchanged at 62 million tons and cut Argentina production 0.5 million tons to 22 million. Argentina is the world’s second-largest corn exporter. The USDA is scheduled to release its updated figures next Tuesday, April 10th. All in all, all eyes are on the weather now and the 10 day model looks favorable for early corn plantings which should keep new crop corn prices in check. However, it seems Mother Nature always has something up her sleeve. Tomorrow is the last trading day for the week since we’re closed for Good Friday so I expect a choppy two sided trade as traders position themselves for a 3 day weekend.
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