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Walsh Trading: Afternoon Grain Comments

RSS By: Andy Kopale,

Andy is a seasoned grain market analyst and the senior account executive at Walsh Hedging. His main focus is assisting producers and end users to better hedge their investments through his various market strategies over his years of experience working on the grain floor.

Walsh Commercial Hedging 5/15/2012

May 15, 2012


Good afternoon. We saw a “Turn Around Tuesday” in the complex today as the outside markets turned more stable and the technically oversold conditions in the complex brought out the buyers. However, given the global economic worries including fears of Greece leaving the euro zone and concerns about a slowing Chinese economy and no serious weather conditions back here in the states for the next 10 days it will be interesting to see if this was just a one day hiccup to the upside. July wheat finished up 10 ¼ at 608 ½ and July Kansas City wheat up 13 at 627 1/2. The USDA said that 60% of the winter-wheat crop was in good to excellent condition yesterday which was down from 63% a week ago. In Kansas, the nation’s top winter wheat producing state, the crop declined to 52% from 60% good to excellent amid concerns about dryness in the state. However, a decline in wheat’s quality rating isn’t unusual as harvest approaches due to the “browning” effect taking place near maturity. All in all, the winter wheat is above last year’s rating of 32% and the five year average of 50% good to excellent. Corn was supported by the deteriorating wheat conditions and the strong recovery from an oversold condition in the soybean market. July corn finished up 14 ¼ at 597 ¼ and new crop December corn settling at 514 ½     up 9 cents for the day. Even with corn plantings coming in at 87% yesterday which is the 2nd highest rate of plantings next to the 89% complete in 2004, the trade was talking about the oversold condition of the market after the sharp break last week. However, it will take a significant threat to crop conditions to turn the trend around in the corn market. The USDA will start reporting the condition of the corn crop in next week’s Crop Progress report.
The soy complex had a wild two-sided trade during the day session but found support from wheat and corn. July beans finished up 26 at 1413 and new crop November settled at 1305 up 10 ¼ for the day. We expect the bean complex to stay volatile with the “managed money” still holding 275,328 long contracts using futures and options. Even though the current weather forecasts look favorable for beans, the 2012/13 balance sheet is already tight and any future weather concerns could spark some new buying in beans. We won’t know until the June 30th acreage report to see how many additional acres of beans were planted.  All in all, I would urge producers to have some sort of “put” protection in place in wheat, corn, and beans with all the uncertainties in the world right now and the weather window looking favorable.
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Walsh Commercial



Futures and options trading involves substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this letter be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee, or implication by or from Walsh Trading Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this correspondence is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal circumstances and financial resources. Only risk capital should be used.
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