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John's World
Friday, October 26, 2007
 
So I loaned my car to my brother-in-law...



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Tasting, tasting, 1, 2, 3, 4...

[It's an old Smothers Brothers gag.] Just seeing if I can post yet.

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Thursday, October 25, 2007
 
Somebody hold me...

AgWeb is undergoing a regeneration (a la Dr. Who). I won't be able to post much after this until Monday (I think).

What I can do is have a whole bunch of posts stacked up ready to publish as soon as the system is once again breathing on its own. These event are always tricky, so I'm going to concentrate mental focus on those wacky coders whose talented fingers now control our destiny.

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You thought the election campaign was long...

It has occurred to me as I was unloading corn (lots of free brain time there) that while we are all buzzing about the Average Crop Revenue option, it won't kick in until 2010. Some thoughts:
  • I could be dead by then.
  • Given the fact I struggled to follow the examples published recently, I anticipate a major, major education problem for FSA offices. Good thing they won't be closing many soon, huh?
  • As some have noted, the idea of an option is a guarantee for serious laments after the choice is made. Wanna bet there is a heads-you,win-tails-you-win amendment in 2011?
  • The act should be called the Farm Economist, Extension Meeting, Farm Media, and Crop Insurance Full Employment Act. [Arguably, that beats "The Heartland, Habitat, Harvest and Horticulture Act of 2007"] Try to imagine how many magazine pages of explanations, downloadable spreadsheets, websites, extension meetings, PowerPoint paralysis, letters to editors, advisory services, and outright scams that will latch onto this complex scheme by 2010. You will be so sick of reading about ACR, you'll skip over those articles for the ads.
  • We can't predict ag conditions next summer, so who knows what will be going on in 2009 as we first make this choice? The possibility for legislator's regret could be significant.
  • Regardless, by 2009 this optional program will be sooo gamed out by everyone - not just early reactors such as what happened with the "Dakota shuffle". Ah - those were the days...
Most salient of all, the concept has to survive the floor vote, conference and even Pres. Bush's signature. With Mr. Johanns replaced, the administration position on developments has been unclear at best.

Still, if ACR is the future, my attention span has been challenged already.

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Wednesday, October 24, 2007
 
Like, totally awesome Christmas music, dudes...

This year has introduced some of the best Christmas choir music I have heard in years. My favorites:
  • Here Comes the Light by Joseph Graham ( 10029872) *
  • Fear Not Good News by Robert Sterling ( 10033742)
  • And the Stars Sang by Joseph Martin ( 10029840) *
Find them all here.

* Audio download available for listening.

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This would explain the subsidy difference, I suppose...

If you thought farming arose because it offered more food than hunting and gathering, maybe you should think again.
People turned to farming to grow fiber for clothing, and not to provide food, says one researcher who challenges conventional ideas about the origins of agriculture.

Ian Gilligan, a postgraduate researcher from the Australian National University, says his theory also explains why Aboriginal Australians were not generally farmers.

Gilligan says they did not need fiber for clothing, so had no reason to grow crops like cotton. [More]

I dunno - as I study early farming the first indicators are related to domesticated food crops like emmer wheat, not cotton. Still his argument seems passable at least in Australia.

Overall, I would suggest this is going to be a tough dissertation to defend.

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007
 
Hitting the wall...

Every year as harvest winds down, I seem to lose my drive for a few days. I've always called it "hitting the wall" for lack of a better term. Since I habitually contrive to cram more into my days than I probably should, I have come to appreciate and honor this letdown.

So much so that anything that reminds me of autumn whispers rest and respite.

Like this:



[More]

The only problem is Jan has her own transition - from farming to cooking. So I'm working less (physically) and eating more.

Not a pretty picture.

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Monday, October 22, 2007
 
Mortgage is not a four-letter word...

After struggling to settle four estates, and living to tell the story, I could curl your hair with exasperating tales of our legal property system. For farmland, getting descriptions and easements and liens and yadda yadda just so to suit lawyers can drive a man to drink. Or at least encourage him to have another.

But without this administrative headache we would be just like, well, Chinese farmers.
A critical determinant of China's long-term economic growth and social stability will be whether the wealth of its economic boom can reach the majority of its 700 million farmers, who make up approximately 56 percent of the total population. The benefits that the rural population has received from the economic reforms of the past two and a half decades, while significant, were largely achieved in the 1980s, and now the countryside lags badly behind the urban sector. A survey we conducted in 17 provinces, among 1,962 farmers and other respondents, confirms one fundamental cause of the widening rural-urban income gap: most Chinese farmers still lack secure and marketable land rights that would allow them to make long-term investments in land, decisively improve productivity, and accumulate wealth.

Farmers in China face multiple threats to their land rights from local government and village officials. The most prominent threat is land expropriation or acquisition through eminent domain to satisfy demands of industrial growth or urban expansion. Despite a series of central laws and policies, in practice, farmers who lose their land typically receive little or no compensation. Closely related as another source of insecurity of land rights is the persistent "readjustment" or "reallocation" of farmers' landholdings that is administratively conducted by village officials. Today, such land-related problems are the number one cause for rural grievances and unrest in China, which reported 17,900 cases of "massive rural incidents" of farmers' protests in the first nine months of 2006.

China adopted a Property Law in March 2007 that aims to strengthen the security of farmers' land rights, and the next key step will be full implementation of the law. We calculate that securing rural land rights would bring more than half a trillion dollars of value to farmers. Implementing the property law requires major institutional and legal measures on several fronts that China must tackle in the immediate future. [More]
As Hernando de Soto compellingly argued in The Mystery of Capital, being able to prove you own something may be the single most powerful economic tool. It's also one of the easiest to take for granted.

One of the keys to the success of world agriculture is extending this power to all farmers. Nothing would guarantee the food supply for the world more rapidly than this basic freedom.

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I'm sorry...

Apologies are all the vogue these days. Mostly they use the word "regret" a lot and phrase things in passive voice: "Mistakes were made...".
I wish I had that much cover.

Every now and then I re-read some article from my archives and find myself perusing unfamiliar words. After a decade or so this is understandable, but four days?


I just read over my post about Dean Kleckner's NYT op-ed article. I could see that a reader could construe it as an ad hominem attack.


That's because it is.

My words were inexcusable. My judgment was incomprehensible, and my choice of words lamentable. Worse yet, they were illogical - calling on presumption and prejudice for baseless accusations. As with most knee-jerk responses it revealed more jerk than knee.

Regardless of our differences, Dean deserves fairness.
I apologize to Dean and to you, my readers.

I have deleted the post - which raises some interesting questions in and of itself.
We're just beginning to understand how this new medium works, and as more of us stray over the lines of civility, perhaps we will begin to accept some standard practices of commentary to guide our instantaneous outbursts.

As for regret, I have reached an age where I sadly acknowledge the lasting power it has in our lives.

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I smell another boondoggle...

Those crafty guys in the Ag Committees of Congress are about to do it again. They are going to raid the Treasury in broad daylight (albeit in the fog of farm legislation - to torture the metaphor). Jim Weisemeyer outlines the increasingly questionable cost assumptions behind the Senate Farm Bill.

One tiny little slice of his analysis:
How will the apparent inclusion of an ever-ready ag disaster program impact a producer's attitude toward buying up crop insurance?

What if.. If as I suspect that the CBO assumes in their analysis that x-percent of producers would buy up insurance to a higher level, the savings resulting from that assumption may not be realized near to the degree that CBO might have predicted. [More by subscription - seriously, ya need to find room for this in your budget]
I'll bet the idea of eliminating the LDP game won't survive conference either.
While not exactly the same, drafts of farm bill language in the Senate do contain a shift in when producers could claim the LDP to the day they lose beneficial interest in the crop. [More]
However I am inclined to believe these are tempests in a legislative teapot. Looking at the trends in trade, biofuels, and biotech, a huge fuss about a few billion per year is going to mean less and less to more and more producers.


Those commodities and communities who insist on government support as their primary business plan may discover they have not built a safety net, they've woven their own shroud.

How very Halloweeny.

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Sunday, October 21, 2007
 
Another post about broadband...


Speed matters.





[via Presurfer]

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I want to see a field of this after a 60 mph wind...

In our search for plants to make biofuels from, an unlikely candidate has emerged: tropical maize.

Early research results show that tropical maize, when grown in the Midwest, requires few crop inputs such as nitrogen fertilizer, chiefly because it does not produce any ears. It also is easier for farmers to integrate into their current operations than some other dedicated energy crops because it can be easily rotated with corn or soybeans, and can be planted, cultivated and harvested with the same equipment U.S. farmers already have. Finally, tropical maize stalks are believed to require less processing than corn grain, corn stover, switchgrass, Miscanthus giganteus and the scores of other plants now being studied for biofuel production. [More]
We sometimes forget early corn had no ears. And when stalks are 25% sugar - who needs 'em?


Still all these ethanol-wannabees will have a tough time buying acreage the first few years.

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This is a big deal...

Forget genes - we're working whole chromosomes now, baby. The world of biotech is just beginning to gather momentum, and we're one reason for it.
It's been a brave new world for genetic crops for some time now but Chicago-based researchers say they have developed a method to take crop manipulation to a higher level: the chromosome.

Creating an artificial chromosome, into which several manipulated genes can be inserted, may speed efforts to produce fuels and medicines from plants as well as boosting crop nutrition and yield.

In a scientific paper set for publication Friday researchers from Chicago-based Chromatin Inc. and the Universities of Chicago and North Carolina reported success in creating an artificial chromosome for corn plants. Through four generations, the corn treated the man-made chromosomes as if they were natural and passed them along to offspring intact at a rate nearly as high as for chromosomes native to the plants.

"This appears to be the tool that agricultural scientists and farmers have long dreamed of," said Daphne Preuss, a University of Chicago professor of molecular genetics and Chromatin's president. [More]
So, while you moan about seed costs, remember you are not stupid. If it didn't make you money, you wouldn't buy 'em. And because you buy them, more will come.

Here is the real question: do you believe that biotech will reshape your yield curve? If so, what will you bet? Whle others are fixated on whether demand (read: ethanol) will falter, some producers are guessing biotech productivity gains can lower their cost per bushel to survive when competitors bleed red ink.

Those bets are being placed in cash rent and land prices as we speak.

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Cool water...

You think you know all about something and then you see this:

When exposed to a high-voltage electric field, water in two beakers climbs out of the beakers and crosses empty space to meet, forming the water bridge. The liquid bridge, hovering in space, appears to the human eye to defy gravity. [More]

Water is an amazing substance. How can we still keep learning new things about it?

One thing we do know, there isn't nearly enough of it in the Southeast.
Lake Lanier, the water source that serves a third of Georgia's residents, only has a 4 month's supply of water. Forecasters predict the drought could last months, and residents should look for news ways to conserve.

Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin says, the city has cut water use by not watering parks. She says maintaining water supplies for drinking and fighting fires is the primary concern. Atlanta commissioner for the Department of Watershed Management, Rob Hunter says Lake Lanier has a 121 day supply of water. He says reducing consumption is key. He offered residents several suggestions: take shorter showers, repair leaky faucets and pipes, and cut outdoor water usage. [More]
What happens when Atlanta runs dry?

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Saturday, October 20, 2007
 
It's not all ethanol...

Commodities have been in and out of the investment spotlight for the last year. I think they are back in for loose money looking for somewhere to live.
But the broad strength of commodity prices may also reflect the appeal of the sector as an “alternative asset”, along with hedge funds and private equity. Ever since the dotcom bubble burst, investors have been keen to diversify away from their traditional focus on equities and government bonds. That has led to the launch of a whole series of exchange-traded funds based on commodities, which have made the asset class accessible for a much wider range of investors; the latest example, from Barclays Global Investors, is a fund based on timber prices. And Wall Street has been gearing up to meet demand; a survey by Options Group, a recruitment consultant, found that the hiring rate of commodity traders is up 33% on last year.

The recent credit crunch may have given commodities a further lift. Speculative money that had been flowing into high-yield bonds and structured credit is now looking for a new home. Some commodities, particularly gold, are also seen as a hedge against a declining dollar.

Robin Bhar, a metals strategist at UBS, says investors seem to feel they have an each-way bet on commodity prices. Either global economic growth is strong and supply remains tight, or the world slips into stagflation, as it did in the 1970s. In either case, commodities should perform well. [More]

This interest in commodities carries over to farm real estate as well, I think. I have long believed (mostly to justify my own decisions) that land is superior investment. All it takes is a few of the very wealthy to agree with me to support what seem to be astronomical prices for dirt.

What many of us have trouble wrapping our mind around is how much wealth there is in the world, and the very real problem of what to do with it. The real world and real stuff like commodities and land contrast well to the abstract and barely comprehensible investment competition like derivatives or (shudder) CDO's.

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A new link category...

Thanks to some interesting comments about my recent post on food safety, I surfed over to my first ever attorney blog.

His comment about the pot pie problem says it all.

And, when you make it on a stupid YouTube video entitled, "Drop that Pot Pie," you know you are in trouble.
YouTube is the new test for cultural relevance, I guess.

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US Farm Report host John Phipps surfs the Web so you don't have to...

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Name: John Phipps
Location: Chrisman, Illinois, United States

Jan and I farm 1700 acres near Chrisman, IL. I have also written humor and commentary for Farm Journal and Top Producer for 13 years. Please visit my website (www.johnwphipps.com) to learn about my speaking services for your group's next meeting.

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