But the shrinking global total could be cut by another 25 percent again, according to Randy Ploetz, professor of plant pathology at the University of Florida, if two different diseases spread from the Americas to West Africa.

They go by the names of frosty pod and witches’ broom. Both diseases are limited to the Americas but could easily jump the Atlantic on the backs of traders and tourists. “If they made it over to West Africa they could cause real problems,” says Mr. Ploetz. About 70 percent of the world’s cacao pods hang from trees in the region—and most of those hang in the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cacao producer. [More]

One solution might be GM cacao which would be resistant to the pathogens. This idea horrifies those concerned with fair trade and small producers. They may be right.

But if chocolate skyrockets in price, I can see consumer tastes being less finicky.

State homeland security officials have warned Vermillion County to stop using electronic emergency message boards to advertise fish fries, spaghetti dinners and other events.

Homeland Security, which bought the 11 signs for $300,000, said the county could risk losing federal money. The county has stopped using the signs for the community announcements, and commissioners plan discuss the matter next week.

• India

• China:

So where does that leave Africa? Nowhere, with agricultural exports remaining largely sidelined by high farm subsidies in the developed world, it said.

The paper said the economic impact of the current failure would not be felt immediately, but the targets of eliminating trade distorting subsidies and realizing tariff free and quota free market access for least developed countries would obviously be affected.

Failure would also send out a strong negative signal for the future of the world economy and the danger of a resurgence of protectionism at a time when the pace of globalization is weighing heavily on the social and economic fabric of many countries and when geopolitical instability is on the rise, the paper said.

The newspaper said, perhaps this is time to implement WTO reforms as the body has become yet another tool for the EU and the U.S. to bully the developing world and assert their dominance.

• Australia:

So what's next? Suspending the Doha Round does not mean the end of the WTO. There is still a strong development case for a multilateral system, even if it is as flawed as that of the WTO. Australia and other richer countries should resist the temptation to try to get what they want through a series of bilateral trade agreements. Apart from creating complex and incoherent trade relationships, these deals usually involve developing countries losing more than they gain because of their weak negotiating position.

If the talks are to be resurrected, trade negotiators need a complete change of thinking. The US and EU should only come back to the table after doing their homework; they need to make a commitment to stop dumping their agricultural surpluses. The US, EU and Australia must acknowledge the special need of developing countries for flexibility over how and when they open up their markets.

In the meantime, the US and EU should at least respect subsidy rules — or, if they continue to break them, accept that they will face litigation in the WTO court. They must not abandon the multilateral system and should refrain from arm-twisting developing countries into bilateral trade agreements that are even more damaging than those on the table in Geneva. They should use their time to reopen the debate on institutional reform of the WTO.

However minor, such gains would at least give the world's poorest countries something to show for five years of hard slog in the negotiating chamber.

The five million Chinese GM cotton farmers appear to have created a natural vacuum by growing cotton genetically engineered to kill the bollworm larvae which used to destroy their plants. With the bollworm larvae gone, other pests called mirids have taken over, forcing farmers to eradicate them with lashings of expensive insecticide that have all but destroyed the original economic benefits. [More]

Just to put this in perspective, the non-farming sectors of the U.S. economy make up between 80 to 90 percent of the GDP. Yet through its actions, the U.S. government is saying that it is willing to forgo new market openings for its most productive sectors so that wealthy landowners can continue to receive lots of money not to farm. [More]

Let's start with U.S. and European agricultural subsidies, a key target for the Doha negotiators. Are those subsidies too big? Certainly. Is the Doha Round the right forum for lowering them? Probably not. Here's why: The people who suffer the most from those subsidies are the taxpayers of the U.S. and Europe, who pay billions of dollars a year to politically well-connected farmers in their own countries. If voters haven't managed to get rid of those subsidies in their own countries, it's difficult to see how foreign diplomats are going to have any luck. And, in fact, they haven't.

This may seem a strange claim for a nation with as strong a history of militant temperance and Prohibition as ours, yet there's more than a little truth to it. Rum was invented in the Americas -- probably, though not certainly, in Barbados -- and quickly became an important part of the diet in the American colonies, where consumption of alcoholic beverages was very high. Rum and slavery were intertwined, both in the slave trade and on plantations where rum was made. "Demon Rum" became a shibboleth of the temperance movement, and rum itself became one of the most widely consumed alcoholic drinks once Prohibition forced drinkers into speakeasies or onto ships bound for Cuba. During World War II, rum and Coca-Cola "became the de facto national drink of many of the troops," and now the mojito is one of the most popular drinks among the fashionable young people who are bringing new life into the country's old cities.

In other colonies, English attitudes towards gambling and recreation prevailed. These settlers brought with them the view that gambling was a harmless diversion. In these colonies, gambling was a popular and accepted activity. Legal gambling tended to be those types that were considered proper gentlemen's diversions. For example, it took a long time for cock-fighting to become legal because it was not considered a suitable game for gentlemen.

16. Why Is It Called "Blackmail?"

The first blackmailers were Scottish landlords who exploited farmers by making them pay rent in livestock or services if they couldn’t pay in cash. The goods they had to hand over were usually worth more than the rent owned, and the landlords didn’t make change.

Around the same time, local chieftains started going after the same farmers with the kind of scheme the mafia usually refers to as "selling insurance." They made an offer the farmers couldn’t refuse: pay a fee for protection. If the farmers didn’t pay, then the chieftains would unfortunately be unable to prevent ruffians from destroying crops and sacking property.

The Scottish farmers called both nefarious deals "black" because they associated that color with evil, and because both payments were made in goods rather than silver coins (called "white money"). As for the "mail" part, it doesn’t refer to the postal system. That "mail" comes from the German word for "pouch." The "mail" in blackmail is related to the Old Norse word for "payment" or "agreement."

Neatorama’s note: The photo above is of Monty Python’s skit Blackmail [wiki], where "Michael Palin plays a smarmy television game show host who extorts money from his viewers by threatening to reveal embarrassing or illegal facts about them. One game is "Stop the film," where a scandalous film is played until a phone call is received, and the amount of money needed increases the longer the subject waits."

[More] [My emphasis]

Trade ministers are due to gather again later today at the lakeside offices of the WTO in what could be a final attempt to salvage a deal.

Diplomats say another failure by the six, who have already made several "last ditch" bids for a deal, would leave the 149-state WTO without enough time to complete all the complex details of a global free trade treaty by the end of the year.

The end-year deadline for concluding the Doha Round, which was launched in the Qatari capital amidst much fanfare in late 2001, is dictated by the 2007 expiry of special US presidential powers to negotiate on trade.

The round has been billed as a once-in-a-generation chance to boost global growth and lift millions out of poverty.

Mr Lamy has set a further two days of talks for July 28 and 29, but diplomats said without some progress this weekend there could be little point in a further session.

"It is difficult to imagine that we can continue coming here without anything happening," EU Agriculture Commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel said as she headed for the talks.

Longer-term consequences: The longer-term consequences of a Doha Round failure are serious:

-- Loss of WTO credibility: As a forum for negotiation of trade liberalization, the WTO would be seriously discredited. In the absence of any other global instrument, multilateral trade negotiations would be blocked, probably until the next decade.

-- Free trade agreements: Bilateral and regional agreements would proliferate still further, at the expense of the core WTO principle of non-discrimination.

-- Dispute settlement: The WTO's second main function, adjudicating disputes between member countries about the application of its rules, might initially be reinforced. However, this aspect of its work could also eventually suffer.

-- Multilateral cooperation: More broadly, the setback to the WTO would be damaging to the whole concept of multilateral cooperation.

The Doha Round risks collapse because participants, preoccupied with concerns about the effects of opening their markets, are reluctant to make concessions needed to achieve a deal. Possible consequences of failure for the future of the international trading system could be much more serious.

[More]

Vinod Khosla is a venture capitalist considered one of the most successful and influential personalities in Silicon Valley. He was one of the co-founders of Sun Microsystems and became a general partner of the venture capital firm Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers in 1986. In 2004 he formed Khosla Ventures.

On Wednesday, March 29th, by invitation from our co-founders and CEO, our special guest, Vinod Khosla, visited Google to deliver a tech talk about the emergence of ethanol as a viable, market ready, and competitive source of renewable energy.

His presentation has been making huge waves in the investor, policy, and business communities and we are privileged to have had him take time to talk to us about the tremendous potential for ethanol's explosion into the market.

Consumer anxiety is clearly drifting from Wal-Mart and General Motors up the economic ladder. "Our products aren't necessities," Brunswick CEO Dusty McCoy said on the conference call. "Customers have to be financially able to complete the purchase, but feel comfortable making the purchase." Thanks to higher interest rates and concerns about employment, the types of people who would be expected to buy these luxury items aren't pulling the trigger. All but the wealthiest of the wealthy are feeling the pinch in some way. McCoy noted that sales of large yachts that its Hatteras unit makes have been strong, but the cruisers, the midsized boats that cost in the low six figures and are the most profitable line, have been particularly weak. The economic tide may still be rising. But it's not lifting all boats.

General Motors has ordered its engineers to ensure each car and light truck it produces meets or beats the best fuel economy of its rivals as the carmaker reacts to concern among US drivers about petrol prices and oil imports.

Bob Lutz, vice-chairman and head of product development, said the world's biggest carmaker had set a target of being the best in almost every segment, even if it meant sacrificing performance or increasing cost.

[More]

A similar process may be unfolding now in the alternative-energy business. Many of these venture-backed alternative-energy firms will fail, and some of the publicly held ethanol stocks will turn out to be turkeys. But fierce competition will lead to price reductions in energy-saving equipment. The vast sums being plowed into research may lead to incremental improvements or revolutionary breakthroughs. And as more giant companies such as Wal-Mart become consumers of alternative-energy products and services, the industry will gain scale—a development that leads to price reductions for all consumers. So, let's hear it for the Prius Bubble.

Surprisingly, the U.S. is the third largest oil producing country in the world and the U.S. imports the most oil from Canada and Mexico. Bottom line, the “red states” politically produce energy while the “blue states” consume. If all energy and power were converted to BTUs, the state of Wyoming would produce more than Saudi Arabia.

The United States is prepared to do more to cut domestic farm subsidies, but needs a signal from the European Union and advanced developing countries that they will cut tariffs deeply enough to generate new trade flows, Schwab said.

"President Bush has indicated the U.S. will be more flexible on domestic support when we see more flexibility on market access from our trading partners," Schwab said.

Acuña-Soto's trips into the woods with Stahle and the Mexican researchers continue to fill in epidemiological details. "I have evidence from 24 epidemics from 1545 to 1813," he says. "I am comparing the tree-ring data with each of them." In each case, he sees the same pattern. He also thinks he may have solved one of the other great mysteries of cocolitzli—namely, why it hit the Aztecs hard but left the Spanish largely unaffected.

Hemorrhagic viruses affect human populations that are already stressed, Acuña-Soto says. "The natives were poor and probably near starvation and living in unsanitary conditions where the rats would congregate. They also worked in the fields, where they'd be exposed to the rat droppings. The Spanish made up the upper classes."

Cortés and his soldiers defeated, enslaved, and murdered the Aztecs, but now it seems that cocolitzli, a disease brought about by a native virus, is what really finished them off. Today the Aztec kingdom exists only in museums and ruins, but the virus could still be out there. As Mexico enters into yet another period of severe drought, could the killer reemerge?

Dear John

I thought your show was good today. Can't believe the oil companies would allow us farmers a chance to buy stock in the ethonol business if it is a good deal. That is why we have not bought any. The oil company will sell their product just enough cheaper that only us dedicated farm people will pay the extra. Remember we wouldn't buy ethel cause it was ten cents more and that was when gas was twenty five cents a gallon.

Anyway my reason is to tell you about my grandpa.He came here to MO. about 1880 from W VA. He stopped to see his sister at Chenoa ILL. They were laying tile there so he worked there and learned how to do it.

He taught my dad and so about 1947 my dad tiled a wet bottom we have and then in 1960 we extended it a ways as the creek had changed the lay of land so i learned how to lay clay tile. We dug the trench with spades by hand. Streched a string from point to point then used a gage made out of lath to gage the depth from the string. Used a carpenters level on a 2 x 4 to make sure the string had the right fall so the tile would be laid on the right grade so it would drain after it was covered up. I guess grandpa wore a pair of hob nailed shoes that were heavy so when you lay the tile segments you walked on the completed tile then the new one you lay down you bump it tight against the others with your heal. I could show you easier than tell you. They kept the spades in a bucket of sand and used oil to keep them bright. Talk about hard work that is it. The neighbors north of us tried it but were not good enough with the level so theirs never did drain. a lot of hard work for nothing . My dad had a guy working for us said he could just sight through the spade handle and get the right grade. Of coure pop showed him it wasn't that easy. You also had to prime the tile as they called it which was to throw a little dirt on it to hold it in place while the rest of the dirt is thrown in the ditch. We still have the finish shovel that you use to make the little grove or depression to lay the tile on grade. It would be easier to show you than it has to tell you. Hope i haven't bored you too much.

Dale Hartley Kingston Mo.

But how plausible were the numbers? Twelve years on, economists have shown little inclination to go back and check. One exception is Timothy Kehoe, an economist at the University of Minnesota. In a paper published last year, he argued that the models “drastically underestimated” NAFTA's impact on trade flows (if not on jobs). The modellers assumed the trade pact would allow people to buy more of the goods for which they had already shown some appetite. In fact, the agreement set off an explosion in the exports of many products Mexico had scarcely traded before. Cars, for example, amounted to less than 1% of Mexico's exports to Canada before the agreement. By 1999, however, they accounted for more than 15%. The only comfort economists can draw from their efforts, Mr Kehoe writes, is that their predictions fared better than Mr Perot's. A low bar indeed.

So can happiness be taught? Literature based on twin studies seems to suggest that roughly 50 percent of our affect is determined by genetics. If you’re like me, a pessimist, that seems like a depressing lot. Optimists, of course, would argue that 50 percent is a lot of room to play with, and that through a combination of acts of will and shifts in fortune, our happiness levels can change substantially. (In fact, happiness researchers frequently use the equation H = S + C + V, or happiness equals our genetic set point plus our circumstances plus what we voluntarily change—a tad too reminiscent, for my taste, of a certain “Far Side” cartoon: “Einstein discovers time actually is money.”)

Seligman is most interested in V. And because he’s a self-identified depressive, or perhaps because he’s a philosopher, his idea of happiness is much more comprehensive than positive emotion. By engaging and cultivating our strengths, he says, and by deploying our virtues, we can lead a fulfilling, meaningful life—a notion not unlike Aristotle’s, who defined happiness as “an activity of the soul that expresses virtue.” He makes the critical distinction between pleasures, which make us feel good, and gratifications, which, oddly, may not involve positive emotions at all, but rather the blunting of them. Eating a Mars Bar is a pleasure; doing something that engages or enhances our strengths is a gratification, whether it’s swimming, welding, or listening to a friend in need. Optimally, when we’re in a state of high gratification, we’re experiencing what Seligman’s colleague, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi (pronounced “cheeks sent me high”), calls flow—a state of total absorption, when time seems to stop and the self deserts us completely.

Oman is the fifth Middle Eastern country to sign a free trade agreement with the U.S., joining Israel, Jordan, Bahrain and Morocco. Oman wants to modernize and diversify its economy, and free trade with the U.S. is part of that strategy. Two-way trade is now only $1.2 billion a year, but the deal would make all U.S. industrial and consumer products duty-free immediately and phase out farm tariffs over 10 years. The country is also a stalwart friend in a rough neighborhood where we need all the help we can get.

So you'd think this would be an easy call. Nope. While the FTA passed the Senate last month with 60 votes, 34 Senators voted no, including 29 Democrats. And when the deal was approved in the House Ways and Means Committee on the same day, all 15 Democrats opposed it. Congressman Charles Rangel, ranking Democrat on Ways and Means, signaled the battle to come on the House floor by noting, "I don't believe we will have much bipartisan support on the question of Oman." Thanks for the statesmanship, Charlie.

5 . An adult bedbug can survive up to one year without feeding.
10 . In 1964 17-year-old Randy Gardner stayed awake for 264 hours and 12 minutes, the world's record. He then slept for 15 hours—not a record, but not bad.

1. Malthusians: doom, gloom and tomb - mankind eventually destroys the earth and life as we know it through venal short-sighted stupidity and voting Republican
2. Cornucopians: hi-tech saves the day. Thanks to people in white lab coats and code monkeys in cubicles, Science solves every problem we create just in time.

Not so for the United States. I'm not sure who they all are, but I hope Bush administration and congressional leaders listen to different trade policy experts and lawyers than the ones who errantly advised that U.S. policies dealing with the Foreign Sales Corporation (FSC) issues, and the Byrd amendment would hold up to WTO legal challenges. They did not.

Because sea-surface temperatures vary less through the seasonal cycle than do land-surface temperatures, any place where the wind blows from off the ocean will have relatively mild winters and cool summers. Both the British Isles and the Pacific Northwest enjoy such "maritime" climates. Central Asia, the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies are classic examples of "continental" climates, which do not benefit from this moderating effect and thus experience bitterly cold winters and blazingly hot summers. The northeastern United States and eastern Canada fall somewhere in between. But because they are under the influence of prevailing winds that blow from west to east, their climate is considerably more continental than maritime.

This is not just an academic issue. The play that the doomsday scenario has gotten in the media—even from seemingly reputable outlets such as the British Broadcasting Corporation—could be dismissed as attention-grabbing sensationalism. But at root, it is the ignorance of how regional climates are determined that allows this misinformation to gain such traction. Maury should not be faulted; he could hardly have known better. The blame lies with modern-day climate scientists who either continue to promulgate the Gulf Stream-climate myth or who decline to clarify the relative roles of atmosphere and ocean in determining European climate. This abdication of responsibility leaves decades of folk wisdom unchallenged, still dominating the front pages, airwaves and Internet, ensuring that a well-worn piece of climatological nonsense will be passed down to yet another generation.

They have created their own rail service using little more than pieces of bamboo. The locals call the vehicles "noris", or "lorries", but overseas visitors know them as "bamboo trains".

A tiny electric generator engine provides the power, and the passenger accommodation is a bamboo platform that rests on top of two sets of wheels. A dried-grass mat to sit on counts as a luxury.

It would be a white-knuckle ride - if there were actually anything to hold on to.

The bamboo trains reach about 40km/h (25mph), with the track just a couple of inches below the passengers. Warped and broken rails make for a bone-shaking journey.

But the drivers insist it is a safe form of transport.

"We're very careful," said 18-year-old Sok Kimhor, a 10-year veteran of the bamboo trains. "We look out for children and animals running across the lines, and we have to slow down when other trains come along."

It has been said that when goods cross borders, armies don't. Today, China and India are the world's two largest countries racing toward entrepreneurial capitalism. They are the example and test of that thesis. Several decades ago, their armies clashed. Now no one talks of war, only of their economic emergence. Capitalism has promoted peace and, in China, better — though still inadequate — respect for rights.

• In order to publish your comment, you will have to sign on to blogger.com - the service which runs this blog. This is a matter of choosing a username and password. Once you have done this, I recommend you have your computer remember it to speed up further posts. I don't know what Google (the parent of blogger.com) does with your login information - but I'm not getting spammed or scanned since I stated using blogger.
  
• Your comments will appear here on John's World (in the comments section) immediately after you post. Use links to help us see where your information comes from. (This is very easy) Update - Actually you can’t use live links, so please spell out the URL, ex. agweb.com Shoot.
• Other readers may also contribute with opinions my original post or your comment.
• If you ask a question or make a point I find interesting, I will answer you as soon as possible. I will try really hard not to be argumentative or critical - and if I fail, you can join Jan in letting me know about it. I might even admit when I am wrong. (Don't hold your breath)
• Above all, I will not allow personal attacks, pointless ranting or profanity - the posts will be moderated.

In the news media and on myriad Web sites, high-fructose corn syrup has been labeled "the Devil's candy," a "sinister invention," "the crack of sweeteners" and "crud." Many scientific articles and news reports have noted that since 1980, obesity rates have climbed at a rate remarkably similar to that of high-fructose corn syrup consumption. A distant derivative of corn, the highly processed syrup was created in the late 1960's and has become a hard-to-avoid staple of the American diet over the last 25 years. It spooks foodies, parents and nutritionists alike. But is it really that bad?

Many scientists say that there is little data to back up the demonization of high-fructose corn syrup, and that links between the crystalline goop and obesity are based upon misperceptions and unproved theories, or are simply coincidental.

"There's no substantial evidence to support the idea that high-fructose corn syrup is somehow responsible for obesity," said Dr. Walter Willett, the chairman of the nutrition department of the Harvard School of Public Health and a prominent proponent of healthy diets. "If there was no high-fructose corn syrup, I don't think we would see a change in anything important. I think there's this overreaction."

For me, the clincher was that even the head of the Center for Science in the Public Interest, Michael Jacobson, who rarely misses an opportunity to spread alarm about the food Americans consume, "never supported the notion that high-fructose corn syrup was a unique contributor to obesity."

The USA: future deadbeat

In this morning's breakfast discussion on U.S. indebtedness (where economist David Li also made some interesting remarks), former Goldman Sachs Asia vice chairman Kenneth Courtis offered this rhetorical question:

"When the current administration leaves office, the U.S. will have an external debt of $6.5 trillion," Courtis said. "Is anyone in this room naive enough to believe the U.S. will ever pay that back?"

No one spoke up.

While athleticism is an essential component, the key to these astounding records are the highly streamlined aerodynamic shells that encase the “speedbike”.

Fabricated from lightweight composite materials these amazingly efficient vehicles are able to sustain highway speeds on a scant few hundred watts of power, a mere fraction of the energy used by the average blow dryer!

Low frontal area is enhanced by bullet like body styling with the riders in a recumbent position creating the most efficient land transportation ever seen. HPVA founder Chet Kyle said recently “ If these vehicles were burning gasoline they would be getting about 3000 miles per gallon!”

The winner - Fred Markham - set a new record of 85.4 km.



No word yet on the drug tests. The French are investigating.

Oxfam continues to drag out estimates from old studies that have been refuted or substantially discounted, while failing to report results from recent studies by FAO and the International Monetary Fund. These recent reports show the estimated cumulative impacts of all subsidies by all countries producing cotton only contribute a 2.5% to 3% reduction in average world prices.

By comparison, the market value of America's cotton crop in 2001 was about $3 billion. "In an economic arrangement bizarrely reminiscent of Soviet state planning principles," Oxfam noted, "the value of subsidies provided by American taxpayers to the cotton barons of Texas and elsewhere in 2001 exceeded the market value of output by around 30 percent."

"It's going to be very difficult to have a Florida here," said Alejandro Trelles, an IFE adviser, referring to the protracted Bush-Gore legal battle in 2000. "The election was impeccable--no serious incidents, no elements to impugn." Unlike in Florida, Mexicans just mark ballots with an "x."

Recently, there has been lots of excitement and media coverage about how Brazil produces ethanol for its automobile fuel and talk that America should follow its lead. But Brazil consumes only 10 billion gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel annually, compared with America's 170 billion. There are almost 4 million miles of paved roads in America -- Brazil has 60,000. And Brazil is the leading producer of sugar cane -- more than 300 million tons annually -- so it has lots of agricultural waste to make ethanol.

The results are consistent with a growing body of research. A Harvard University study found that family dinners were the most important family events in helping children develop language skills.

Rich countries are also quite good at keeping developing-country industrial products out of their markets when they want to, by the use of so-called tariff peaks. Developing countries, meanwhile, often have high tariff barriers and are reluctant to reduce them in the absence of rich-country concessions. The effect, however, is to do more damage to other developing countries, restricting so-called South-South trade. Nobody wins from the deadlock.

But how much would we lose if Doha does not succeed? While a deal would be preferable, failure might not be a disaster.

The shift in the global economy, largely brought about by the rise of China and India, is changing things in a way that dwarfs the efforts of trade negotiators. The developing-country share of world trade has risen to more than 30%, its highest for more than half a century, because fast-growing China and India are categorised as developing countries.

Nearly a quarter of people surveyed said they had "zero" close friends with whom to discuss personal matters. More than 50 percent named two or fewer confidants, most often immediate family members, the researchers said. "This is a big social change, and it indicates something that's not good for our society," said Duke University Professor Lynn Smith-Lovin, lead author on the study to be published in the American Sociological Review.