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John's World
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Farming is not so great in Britain, I guess...
Subsidy fans often cast envious eyes on the Common Agicultural Policy in the EU as the ultimate support mechanism for farmers. Maybe not, at least for the subjects of this current British TV show: The Family Farm.
The end of IP?...
If the ethanol pot o' gold materializes (and Jerry Gulke's next TP column promises it) I wonder how specialty identity-preserved (IP) programs will fare. F'rinstance, a 15¢ premium on $2.10 is noticeable. But if corn goes to $3.50 (almost there), why bother? Beans may not be all that different, either. In fact, for profitablility the more crucial decision is - according to Ken Ferrie - hybrid selection. Limiting your choices could cost a lot more than a 5% price boost. For me the hassle factor is the problem. Unless you have time to devote to the meticulous records, separate storage, scheduled deliveries, etc. the premium can't cover the effort. Being able to harvest rapidly, store anything in any bin, move it when I want to, and sell to multiple bidders add up to a significant opportunity cost to be weighed against simple premiums. My guess is IP programs need to suck it up to compete with commodity growing - which just entered a whole new era. That means significantly higher premiums.
A blogger's dream...
A topic that is evergreen. In this case: global warming. A late comment yesterday on an older post about anthropogenic global warming just happened to coincide with more evidence which makes me glad I flip-flopped - er, rethought - my position. "The Stern report exposes the bankruptcy of the arguments of President Bush and some in Congress and industry that taking action on global warming will hurt the economy," said Alden Meyer, strategy and policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, an advocacy group. "In fact, just the opposite is true -- it's the refusal to take serious action that poses the true risk to our future economic prosperity." [More] This is no lightweight piece of thinking here. The debate over global warming has proceeded through predictable stages to date:
OK, let's assume it is all a grand conspiracy by the Masons or the Opus Dei or pro wrestling (you did know that was fake, didn't you?). These evildoers are piggy-backing on a natural phenomenon or statistical blip to advance their loathesome agenda, like:
Even if the dwindling number of skeptics are right (and I dispute that) they broadcast self-righteously such an unattractive, mean-spirited and self-centered philosophy that they hold no appeal to this engineer. Besides my bet is all farmers are going to become supporters if they are not already. After all, one big reason to mandate ethanol and another $150/A gross income for the Midwest is to combat global warming by using renewable fuels. And we are about to develop another lucrative side benefit: carbon sequestration credits. Landowners who agree to maintain tracts of woodlands and grasslands are assigned "carbon credits" by the exchange based on plants' ability through photosynthesis to pull carbon dioxide from the air and sequester it in their tissue.The commenter said to "follow the money". It could also be that money is following the truth. Update: Global warming could be caused by fat people. Monday, October 30, 2006
Ag on the ballot...
We won't just be selecting the lesser of two evils for a representative or (in the case of IL) governor, many of us will be voting on initiatives that will impact agriculture come next Tuesday. Proposition 204 asks voters to consider whether it is acceptable to use a 2- by 7-foot stall to house a 400-pound pregnant pig that is, eventually, headed for slaughter. And to decide whether that practice should be banned in Arizona, as it has been in Florida, Britain and the rest of the European Union in recent years.Ah - the old "family farm". We'll be hearing more about that utopian paradigm soon, I think. There are also some flamboyantly opportunistic property rights ballot measures. There is a law on the ballot in four states that says if I want to open a hog farm or a chemical plant next door to your house and you don't want me to do that, then YOU have to PAY ME not to -- you have to pay me ALL THE MONEY I MIGHT HAVE MADE. [More]The interesting point of this account is how the hog farm is the epitome of bad news - the worst thing that could happen. If "hog farm" has been elevated (or lowered) to the same status as "chemical plant" the future for modern hog production could be rocky. At the very least, some changes will be made in methodology, I bet.
Reality check...
Some myopic political commentators actually are harboring delusions that ag subsidies are in trouble. I don’t want to tempt fate by declaring that the tide is turning against the costly and interventionist federal agriculture programs, but there have been several critical (in both senses of the word) editorials and investigative series this year on farm subsidies. The voices protesting about farm programs seem to be getting louder.and further on, It is encouraging to note the number and breadth of newspapers covering this subject. The LA Times, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Des Moines Register, the Denver Post, the Chicago Tribune and the Orlando Sentinel have all run editorials on farm programs this year. Let’s hope that the voices are heard, and that voters and their representatives start to demand change.I wish. Despite a clear history of being able to get just about any amount we want from Congress, reformers still think the absurdity of our farm policy will eventually dawn on legislators. Yeah, like absurd policy is a problem for our goverment. If the ag lobby can shut down critical international trade talks (and they did) how much trouble should a few scared Congresshumans be? In fairness, it could happen, but it has been a poor bet.
Why knot?....
![]() I couldn't tie a sheepshank if the sheep was helping. For all the rest of you non-knotical readers, a really cool animated knot tying website. Sunday, October 29, 2006
The problem with living in a Big Tent...
I noted an interesting political exchange in the Des Moines Register this morning. It caught my eye because some of the people involved are friends of mine. In a letter to the editor, an Iowa Farm Bureau member took issue with IFB President Craig Lang: Recently, Iowa Farm Bureau President Craig Lang sent a letter soliciting funds for the Republican Party's candidate for secretary of agriculture, Bill Northey. Lang's letter attacked the Democratic Party's candidate, Denise O'Brien, and misrepresented her position on animal agriculture in Iowa. Borrowing from John Edwards' remarks about George Bush in Iraq, I dare say it seems Lang's "proactive stupidity" will backfire.I quote the entire letter to provide context and also demonstrate how a forceful but civil political debate should look like. The writer (who I do not know) is articulate and clear. I do know both Bill Northey and Craig Lang and like and admire them. If you want to call this an endorsement , you can, but crimony - I'm from Illinois, so it could be more of a curse. In my judgment both men have hopes for improving life on farms, but are - as is now standard in politics - constrained by the positions they hold/seek and the powers they represent. I have discussed farm politics with both gentlemen and empathize with their positions as farm leaders. Both of them seem to be frustrated with the limited range of options available to leaders today. You dare not stray off the reservation too far. One key reason behind this is Farm Bureau's absolute insistence on "grassroots" political decision-making. Any attempt at leadership - truly going before - is smacked down as uppity presumption. Further complicating this inflexibility is the painfully slow annualized policy-making process. When your reaction time is say, 10 months you aren't going to play much of a role in a 24/7 world. I often ask people who talk admiringly about "grassroots", "What about the grass?" If it's all about roots, what's the point? Roots are unseen, have no impact above ground. Farm Bureau has so few blades of grass sticking up into the real world because the roots jealously cut them off. Taking the analogy to the extreme, is it any wonder the organization lacks the energy it should have without any chance at real world photosysnthesis? Above all the unfortunate Farm Bureau decision to try to fool the world by counting insurance buyers as in involuntary "members" makes for plump membership numbers to impress politicians and ample funds for running the organization but has now thoroughly diluted the soul of the whole effort. Farm Bureau struggles to represent all kinds of agriculture but as I have written below, our profession is evolving healthy sectors that neither need nor are attracted to FB. Coupled with their inability to change and their intolerance to leaders who espouse change, FB could possibly dwindle in importance, just like current farm policy as agriculture evolves beyond them. That would be a shame. But it is also their right to choose this path to pointlessness. And the roots are insisting on that choice, it seems. [Full disclosure: I have been a Farm Bureau member since I first bought their insurance many decades ago. I have been privileged to serve as a county leader and aspired to higher positions but proved to be perfectly inelectable. While it could be charged my comments are of the disgruntled employee nature, Jan and I are now convinced something like divine intervention prevented a disastrous situation for both me FB and me. I have great respect for the organization, but fear its inertia prevents it from being anywhere close to the force it could be for farmers.] Saturday, October 28, 2006
Back to nature...
It's fall and many of us associate apples and apple-picking with autumn. We have some old and frankly neglected apple trees at the farm - one of which has astonishingly good apples. These apples are ordinarily so much more flavorful than commercial fruit, but then only available for a limited time. Still, like the magic of tomato season, the appearance of these fruits is an annual treat. Foodies are into this mystique as well. Apple picking is a cherished rite of fall, a wholesome and fun family outing, a throwback to a simpler time when people weren't so disconnected from the production of their sustenance. I look forward to it every year. It's also a wasteful scam. [More]That may be a bit harsh. To be sure, modern fruit producers can put a good apple in your grocery cart every day of the year, but I certainly support those who choose to make food buying more of an experience. This business strategy encourages a growing agrarian/agritainment sector in agriculture. But I have had a epiphany in the old apple department. A few years ago Jan brought some apples home during the winter and served them simply sliced at dinner. The first bite was an eye-opener - it was like what apples were meant to be. It turns out the apple was a Braeburn from New Zealand. And after one, we became confirmed fans. There is a lesson here for COOL proponents: make darn sure your product is the best before you demand labeling. After that conversion experience, we began to prefer NZ fruit, especially in winter. No amount of patriotic appealing would have changed our preference. American producers who depend on the export market know this, but some have yet to find out. Slapping the Americna flag on your product does not offset inferior quality - here or abroad. In fact, given America's popularity in the world, I think I would do what today's politicians are doing - downplay my party affiliation. (Notice how the yard signs don't have elephants and donkeys on them anymore?) Globalization has slowly trained US consumers to buy what they like, I believe. Where it comes from usually has lesser importance.
I win, you lose...or do you?...
I have been looking for answers to the problem of how to live on a farm and be happy, like many of you. One of the issues has been reference anxiety: we often measure our happiness not on an absolute scale, but relative to our positional status with others. If everyone else we know is driving a new pickup, a perfectly acceptable old pickup may not bring us much happiness. If we are making good money with 180 bu. corn, guys averaging 200 can dampen our satisfaction. When the relative position gets woven into public policy by say, progressive tax rates or consumption limits, the expectation is to relieve the reference anxiety for many at the expense of the few would-be winners. Sounds logical, and these types of ideas are enjoying considerable attention. But the entire concept may rest on a flawed assumption: there is only so much status to go around. In an occasionally dense article, Wil Wilkinson explains how there is good news for participants in the rat race: Where benevolence, fidelity, cooperation, innovation, and excellence are esteemed, positional races may produce mutual advantage instead of mutual destruction. And while the game of status may be locally zero-sum, it can be globally positive-sum, as scientific, economic, and cultural entrepreneurs identify new dimensions of excellence in which to compete and earn freely conferred prestige as payment for benefit to others. We are not destined to want fancier cars, bigger houses, and more upscale outfits, nor are we helpless to feel diminished by those who out-consume us. We can opt out by opting in to competing narratives about the composition of a good life. And we do it all the time. We can, like Gauguin, quit law and family to paint naked natives in Tahiti. Or, better, we can move the family to a quieter place where houses are cheap and schools are good. (‘Is this heaven?’ ‘No, Iowa.’) If we are aggrieved by the rigours of the rat race, the answer is not the clumsy guidance of a paternal state. The answer is simply to stop being a rat. [More]For those of us in farming, this idea of new arenas for competition and status seems to fit what I see going on. There is no single farm paradigm we all must follow to achieve recognition and satisfaction. I see the emergence of three large categories with multiple sub-groups and hybrids as well. Industrial farms produce the overwhelming majority of our farm output - feed, food, fiber, and now fuel. (Isn't it great how they all start with "f"?) Agrarian farms sell products that have value not just for their intrinsic characterisics (protein level, flavor, etc.) but for their method of production - free-range, organic, local, etc. Finally, recreational farms satisfy owners first and any customers only when convenient. Within these groups and subgroups all kinds of positions of status exist to feed our instinctive need for relative position. You could be the best organic milk producer even though your output pales compared to a huge dairy. Note that the status is conferred not by the producer so much as the final customer, so simply possessing a desire and even talent does not ensure reward. This diversification of farming approaches is the most hopeful development I have seen for increasing the level of satisfaction in our profession. Best of all it is the action of individual choices and free market, not government edict. In fact, government will be I believe, powerless to prevent or even alter this progressive innovation. In short, we now have a growing number of paths to choose (or blaze) on our quests to live on a farm and be happy. Score another one for free minds in a free country...
Adapting to ethanol, Part 1...
Richard Brock has an interesting article about the surprising action of the corn basis in areas where ethanol plants were going to be the answer to wide basis. Money quote: Ethanol plants can't risk running out of corn. As a result, these plants bid for corn 3-6 months in advance and sometimes even further out. Many plants cover 90% or more of their corn needs at least this much in advance. Consequently, the cash bids and basis bids for corn to be delivered in the future are much better than what we have experienced in recent history.Trying to force the market to your ends means trying to force other people who are looking out for their own interests and can figure stuff out too. We may discover more unexpected consequences as ethanol plant operators work to maximize their profits, not grower profits. Friday, October 27, 2006
Vistive beans and me...
I'm thinking about growing some Vistive beans next year. Any experiences from you guys who got the chance to grow them last year or this year? I don't have a local market, so it likely won't work. And I have no idea on comparative yields...
It's not an update, it's an upheaval...
If you are using Windows Live One Care (and I recommend it) you may about to be auto-uploaded with the new Windows Internet Explorer 7.0. While it is a good browser and worth the change from IE6, brace yourself for the process. First you download the new version - takes a while even with broadband. Then as per usual your computer will ask to restart. Then - from the best I can figure - IT DOWNLOADS THE WHOLE PROGRAM AGAIN! And then you restart again! Finally, you are up and running. Count on a half-hour wait or more. For my money, use Mozilla Firefox 2.0. However, most of us will be happy with either. Thursday, October 26, 2006
See, if they had local road commissioners this wouldn't happen...
![]() Bad, bad Russian roads. These people have nuclear weapons?
The next hot commodity...
There is growing unease in many places on our globe about water. And often the solution seems to be pricing it. Water is often free or sold very cheaply by municipal utilities. If you have a pipe going into your house, you get water that way and it doesn’t cost much. But that often means that the utility doesn’t have enough revenue to get water to the truly poor. In places like Africa and India, where millions live in slums, there are no pipes, and people become dependent on trucks or bottled water much of the time. If everyone paid a bit more, then the poor could benefit from the surplus.This idea strikes many as anti-humanitarian, but may represent the best hope of redistributing this scarce resource efficiently. Historically, water has been underpriced. Most countries have treated it as a social rather than an economic commodity, subsidizing prices so that it is affordable for everyone, especially the poor. In fact, these subsidies do little to help the poor. In developing and transitional economies, 30 to 60 percent of the urban population has no formal hook-up to potable water. Often, water vendors with tanker trucks are the only option. A United Nations study found that the poor pay on average 10 to 20 times more per liter (and sometimes as much as 300 times more) for water purchased from water vendors. Consequently, many go without enough water. [More]Above all, getting government out of the water business is the best first step. HOW to provide sufficient clean water to the vast and arid north of China has long been a headache for its rulers. Of late they have considered some ambitious proposals. One of the most hotly debated, to divert water hundreds of kilometres from Tibet at a cost of tens of billions of dollars, was scorned this week by the water minister. What about a more modest (and less Maoist) approach: using market-driven prices to deter waste and pollution? [More]As water becomes more scarce, the idea of a central water market may be less far-fetched. Certainly those with ample resources have pondered the benefits of selling water on an open market. And well-developed and amply funded markets are arising rapidly in areas of the US with exploding populations and limited natural resources, such as Nevada.
We could see a new trading pit in Chicago, and a startling new lesson in personal economics as something we thought of as free becomes a budget expense. But then when we started buying it for $1 per half-liter at a vending machine we should have seen what was coming...
Some Europeans are getting nervous...
The relentless tide of statistics seem to be provoking some concern in European capitals. ![]() So much so that cooperation with the US doesn't look so bad any more. Let's call it the TAFTA - Trans-Atlantic Free Trade Agreement, shall we? The two camps are divided between Europe and America on the one side and Asia on the other. But so far there has been no shouting, no bluster and no shooting. Nor have there been any threats, demands or accusations. On the contrary, there is an atmosphere of complete amiability wherever our politicians and business executives might travel in Asia. At airports in Beijing, Jakarta, Singapore and New Delhi red carpets lie ready, Western national anthems can be played flawlessly on cue -- and they even parry Western complaints about intellectual property theft, environmental damage and human rights abuses with a polite patience that can only be admired. The Asians are the friendliest conquerors the world has ever seen. [More] There is more than a hint of racism here, and I note the author has little to say about the more interesting, and perhaps more pressing problem facing both the EU and US: immigration. Building a fortress to defend the West may be an idea about 20 years too late. But the really bogus aspect of this suggestion is the omission of any solution or even suggestion for the focus of trade problems across the Atlantic: agricultural policy. Until some glimmer of hope exists on that front this kind of teamwork chatter is empty rhetoric. The more likely bet is Europe will stagger to an unfortunate decline clutching to her bosom the millstone of the Common Agricultural Policy. The US could conceivably slither around the problem by deftly outgrowing it. More about that idea anon. Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Fighting the last war...
I had a chance to visit with folks from Cargill yesterday when they came to my farm for an interview to be aired in upcoming weeks on US Farm Report. I have been using their ProPricing contracts for years - for what that is worth - but my experiences this year have left me re-thinking this strategy. Guys who did nothing look like geniuses right now, and forward selling for 2007 seems like a non-starter. The Cargill guys admitted the program was a tougher sell this fall. As I pondered deep thoughts about these developments in the combine zipping through very mediocre corn (remember the bad planting season I whined about last spring?), I noted the things I knew:
I will re-sign with the Cargill Pros for my fall 2007 delivery corn, and may do my usual averaging spring contract as well. After all, consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds... [No - they didn't pay me to plug the program - actually I paid them] Tuesday, October 24, 2006
I think we over-told our story...
Andrew Sullivan has an interesting post about a new book concerned with rural America and politics [Welcome to the Homeland by Brian Mann]. You may connect the political dots any way you choose, but my reaction to the post and the book reviews (will read it after harvest, I hope) was dismay. It seems many of our fellow citizens think rural America is easily duped. This of course is nonsense. In fact it is we who are doing the duping. By portraying ourselves as likable goofs incapable of dealing with incomprehensible forces like weather and open markets, we enlist serious underwriting for our lifestyle. We have even become so good with this act we believe it ourselves. At least most of us. Those who don't are the ones bidding $250/A and expanding. Monday, October 23, 2006
Australians - they know what to do with money...
![]() [More] Crikey! How much time do they have on their hands down there? Meanwhile here in the US of A, we're trying to do away with our currency. Or make our own. [via BoingBoing]
New ! Improved! Wider!...
Panamanians have approved widening the ol' Isthmus-ditch. Opening in 2014, and costing $5B (unless constructed by Bechtel, of course), the new canal should make a big change in trade flows.
The big factor is the surge of exports from China to the US and even EU. Being able to move LNG will relieve some pressure on natural gas prices here in the US. If we can get an LNG port built. Of course, by then will we still be exporting grains?Saturday, October 21, 2006
It's a vodka leak, people!...
National TV reporters covering the ethanol tank car derailment this morning kept referring to "ethanol gas" and intimated a deadly danger. With 100-car trains moving around the country, the ethanol industry better come up with a little press education about what really happens when things go wrong.
The last place on earth...
I can't believe it. An ethanol plant is going to be built literally within eyesight of my farm. TERRE HAUTE — Construction could start as early as next year in northern Vermillion County on a new fuel ethanol plant that could produce 100 million gallons a year.This is a big deal for farmers in the Chrisman area, where nothing ever happens and seldom does. Although just barely across the state line in Cayuga, IN, the plant will be close to a coal power plant whose stacks are visible from my windows. And of course the Newport nerve gas facility - a popular tourist attaction. Throw my old marketing plan out the window - it's going to be a wrench to design a marketing plan based on something other than sputtering demand. Like many grain farmers my biggest fight will be with skepticism and old habits of doubt. Friday, October 20, 2006
Think your FSA office is slow?...
Be glad you don't live in East Anglia, Great Britain. Meanwhile, although the payments were supposed to have been paid in December 2005, some 3,000 farmers are said to be still awaiting payment – many just hanging on financially through use of expensive bank loans and overdrafts! Thursday, October 19, 2006
I know what you are all puzzling about...
Do toilet paper manufacturers increase production just for Halloween? I couldn't find out, but my extensive research led to a number of strange websites. Like this, this, and this. Then again, sales may jump for homecomings and graduations too. This is gonna keep me awake...
One more North Korea post...
Great article from Germany gives more perspective on what this disfunctional country is like: One of the last experts to have seen Yongbyon in operation described to SPIEGEL what the situation was like at the end of 2002: "It's a massive site, with lots of very competent scientists -- on the one hand. But then there was a strange contradiction: We asked to see two buildings which we had not been allowed to inspect. After a great deal of hesitation the doors were opened. The scientists were using one hall to secretly distill Vodka. In the other they were producing cooking spoons out of aluminum. At the time, these things weren't available in North Korea. On the black market the goods could be sold, and provided an extra source of income for the scientists."
Let's start the spreadsheets over...
You might know it. Just when we are about to launch into serious farm policy discussion, the economics of American agriculture has undergone a paradigm shift. From Keith Collins to guys like me in the field, the enormous impact of biofuels in the markets has shredded most of the assumptions used to make those wonderful and misused economic forecasts which will be used to argue different sides of the farm policy debate. In addition, the establishment of mandatory requirements to use renewable fuels (including ethanol) and the provision of tax concessions for the production and consumption of ethanol in the United States are expected to raise the demand for corn by the ethanol industry, which may translate into higher corn prices and a diversion of corn away from other domestic uses. [More]May translate? The Aussie economists who produced this model might want to check the prices for corn this fall - ya think? Strangely too, we have been blindsided by floods of wealth into the commodity markets and so far have not been able to find ways to predict nor benefit from the influence accurately. One interesting aspect of the latest rally is that the SRW market has actually tipped into backwardation. That reflects the drought-induced fear of shortages, but also the impact of speculative money. One analyst estimates 70 per cent of gross commercial long positions in the December SRW contract are held by commodity index funds. [More]This perfect storm of new factors could very well reduce farm programs to triviality. I was just thinking that if I can grow 180 bu. of corn (my trendline yield) and sell it for $3.50 ($630) my $24 direct payment looks fairly puny (about 4%). Choosing the right hybrid could make me more money than that. We may be on the verge of farmers - at least corn farmers - deciding on their own that they are ready to move out of the their parent's house and become independent. Imagine the boost for the public image of commercial farmers if the NCGA President announced that corn growers were saying no thanks to taxpayer's money. Imagine then the impact on the ag lobbyist industry. (That's the fun part.)
This Man can Move Anything
See also the previous post for context. I love stuff like this, but you gotta believe this guy is the subject of a lot of local jokes.
Ancient does not mean stupid...
We frequently give ancient cultures less credit that they deserve for their engineering and even social accomplishments. For example, I have always assumed large monuments were erected by massive applications of labor. ![]() For proof of the opposite, check my following blog entry from YouTube.com. Also visit the builder's website. Speaking of Stonehenge, archeologists have unearthed houses near there of surprising size and comfort.
The more we know about ancient people, the more persistent some human charactersitics seesm to be. Much of what we think of as enlightenment may simply be fashion, not social evolution. [via Neatorama]
The election issue for a few of us...
The War in Iraq, national security, the Foley scandal, the Ambramof scandal, etc. are all valid issues for influencing your vote. Here's the biggy for this former conservative: ![]() More great graphs here and here. Everybody has priorities. This is mine. Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Halloween costumes for those who will be done then...
![]() Behold, the legendary Flaming Carrot. Obviously a chick-magnet. [via Metafilter]
The agony that is North Korea, Part 2...
If you need triangulation on what North Korea is about read this:
Like Hitler's demonstrations at Nuremberg, the NK miliary can definitely put on a show. But if you have never tried marching in goose-step, you may be in for a shock. "(The goose-stepping) says that here we can train all these men to do something that is completely unnatural," says author David Schimmelpenninck, who chairs Brock University's history department. "When you see men goose-stepping, that is much more ominous and much more impressive in a perverse sort of way than when you see men marching as they normally would in most NATO armies. [More]It is also physically exhausting. North Korea is strange and far away, but worst of all is the feeling that we have squandered our resources in Iraq, leaving us with almost no options. The feeling may be accurate.
There are 492 "John Phipps" in the United States...
Here is how I know. [Unintended Bonus - the most obnoxious on-line ad I have seen to date.] [via Neatorama] Monday, October 16, 2006
Raise your hands if...
Voluntary participation is always tricky, but on-line communities make it even more difficult for a wide range of people to jump in. If you check our discussion boards, you will note the same rule as this observer: As one who has been involved with many volunteer organizations, I understand the frustration participants feel with free riders. While it seems like this trend to passive participation has accelerated, I am not sure it is the case. Regardless, it may not take many to make things work. Perhaps we have always been propelled forward by the tiniest handful of overactive volunteers. So to those of you who do take the risk to join in actively, my sincere gratitiude. And for those of you who do not, thanks for reading our work. Sunday, October 15, 2006
Just the kind of thing I was afraid of...
![]() I am afraid it going to only get worse as Halloween approaches. [via Neatorama]
This time let's think ahead...
We seem to have developed a pattern in our international relations of shooting first and asking questions later. No doubt about it - vigorous action is a crowd-pleaser, but as we discover every day, not having a good plan for the moment of "now what?" is a real bummer. So on North Korea, what could we expect to happen? This thoughtful essay points out the possibilities:
North Koreans have been starving all my career, and yet endure. The probable collapse of the NK looney-tunes government will only add to their misery. Massive food aid will be needed for years, as well as rebuilding their agriculture.Phase One: resource depletion; We learned those lessons from the post-meltdown experiences in the former USSR. Satellite nations struggles to jump-start farms. Often the biggest issue is simply trying to determine ownership of the land. North Korea will be a problem, I believe, that will have to be approached with more tools than simple regime change. One of these will necessarily be a commitment to "feed the sheep". Saturday, October 14, 2006
Maybe $3.50 corn is worth protecting...
Rural crime is up. And I don't mean meth - which, while unarguably tragic to the victims - is nowhere near as widespread as publicized. I'm talkin plain ol' commodity theft. The man, arrested earlier this year, was ax-cut-deep in a growing problem for America's farm belt: rural commodity theft, or "plaid-collar crime." From lush Hawaii to the Carolina plains, artichoke absconders, nut nappers, tree thieves, and even cattle rustlers are plucking, picking, hauling, and siphoning commodities from diesel to mangosteens at impressive rates. Loss is a familiar concept to a farmer. But such audacious heists have prompted many to go on the offensive to police America's wide-open spaces. [More] While others are worried about Islamists somehow threatening the heartland, some good ol' homeboys are gonna pick our pockets. Friday, October 13, 2006
Great fruit, short-sighted breeding...
More than you ever wanted to know about bananas. Cute as all this is, bananas have a problem of monoculture that could spell big trouble soon for producers. It seems we're only growing one very unique type of banana - virtually no diversity at all. Watching how the industry battles this problem could be a useful piece of information for corn growers.
Cats cause baby boys...
Well that, and you know, ...sex. Keep clear of the cat if you want baby girls. It sounds like the lamest of old wives' tales, but according to scientists women infected with a common cat parasite give birth to more sons than daughters.I've never been a big fan of cats, but we had housecats for many years early in our marriage. Jan and I have two sons. Hmmm...
A dry and thirsty land...
Where no water is. Australia is struggling through a 1 in 100 year (and counting) drought. Water supplies are threatened and the whole economy will share the effects. Treasurer Peter Costello warned Thursday that Australia's farm sector could be slipping into recession. Howard dismissed that claim on Friday, but said the drought would almost certainly affect Australia's gross domestic product, which has experienced unprecedented growth over the past 14 years. "It will affect GDP growth. Just how much remains to be seen because it depends on the extent to which our booming economy in other areas can offset it," he told Melbourne's 3AW radio station. [More] Worst of all, it could be just the beginning. With a weak (so far) El Nino beginning, rainfall could decrease even more drastically. Remember hot weather is just beginning Down Under.
Rightly or not, the drought is being linked to anthropogenic global warming. Australia is a hold-out to signing the Kyoto Protocol on greehouse gas emissions. It is likely to be a point of contention as this crisis wears on. While far away and admittedly profitable for US producers (especially long-suffering wheat growers), I have experienced enough dry years to pray for rain in Australia. Those are fellow farmers and they could lose it all before this is over. One of our biggest wheat export competitors could be importing soon. This is not the type of windfall profit that can be enjoyed as "well-earned" on our part. Thursday, October 12, 2006
Farm work and breast cancer - bad news...
Canadian researchers have uncovered a correlation between breast cancer in women and working on a farm. The paper, to be published today in the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, says women with farming experience are 2.8 times more likely to develop the disease than non-farmers and that the agricultural link may linger long after a woman has gone on to other occupations. [More]It is important to understand that a correlation does not imply cause. I'm not denying the link - it is real, and underscores the importance of screening and other tests - but more research may reveal exactly what factor is to blame or even if there is a common causal factor for the two. For instance, women who work on a farm may be subject to particular stresses or well water or other rural factors that could affect their immune system. Ann Chambers, a professor of oncology at the University of Western Ontario's Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, said it was a "good study" that should prompt further research. But Chambers, who specializes in breast cancer, said it was important to understand the association found in the study between cancer and farming does not necessarily mean there's a causal relationship between the two."The real danger that the public has in this sort of thing is that you see an association and then they think, `Aha, working on a farm causes cancer,'" she said. "And the study statistically can't say that. It says there is an association which warrants further study to understand what the cause is."The only stronger correlation was working on a farm and then working in the auto industry. What is that about?
A horse even I could like...
![]() Despite my reservations about all things equine, I don't think I would be afraid of this one. [via BoingBoing] Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Score one (more) for free markets and individual responsibility...
Kiwis continue to show the world how unsubsidized farming can work better than socialized agriculture. Farmers make good decisions when allowed to focus on their own farm's future and use their own judgments. Farmers are using less chemical fertiliser on their land, figures released by a fertiliser manufacturers' research association show. We will be bombarded with assertions over the course of developing the next farm bill about how powerless farmers are to manage their destinies. New Zealanders offer a refreshing disproof of this position. Tuesday, October 10, 2006
Where is this relationship going?...
How we view animals is, like always, undergoing revision. One of the most endearing species is elephants. Who doesn't like elephants? Even though they are among the most beloved of species, we are not sure whether we are treating them fairly. Consequently, many zoos may be closing one of their most poular exhibits.
They are also obvious examples of evolving attitudes concerning animal treatment that may ripple through the livestock industry. It seems likely that more sympathic animals like cows will be the focus of animal defense advocates first, but even chickens have their sympathizers. I don't think this is the end of meat production. My guess is the meat industry will grudgingly make changes, costs will increase, and business will continue. This has been the pattern to date. Demonizing the other side - now a standard pattern for public debates - will make the issues and people involved seem more outrageous, but answers will be found in the same old place: compromise.How we live with animals may be a burning issue here in the West, but it is more likely that other cultures will really control the human-animal debate, simply because those groups are growing and eating more meat. [via Metafilter] Monday, October 09, 2006
Why we farm (Chapter One)...
We farmers are famous for loving our work. "All I ever wanted to do is farm", we hear younger generation say, and we smile with approval. While that sadly has passed for sufficient job qualification, it ceased being enough long ago. Wanting to farm, like wanting to play pro baseball is simply not enough. The odds for the ball payer may actually be better, as well. But where does this intense love of our work arise? Part of the answer may be in the physical nature of farming. It is part artisinal, or craft. Physical work, which has become a secondary goal of our education system may have psychologically important benefits that fill our lives with pleasure. Today, in our schools, the manual trades are given little honor. The egalitarian worry that has always attended tracking students into “college prep” and “vocational ed” is overlaid with another: the fear that acquiring a specific skill set means that one’s life is determined. In college, by contrast, many students don’t learn anything of particular application; college is the ticket to an open future. Craftsmanship entails learning to do one thing really well, while the ideal of the new economy is to be able to learn new things, celebrating potential rather than achievement. Somehow, every worker in the cutting-edge workplace is now supposed to act like an “intrapreneur,” that is, to be actively involved in the continuous redefinition of his own job. Shop class presents an image of stasis that runs directly counter to what Richard Sennett identifies as “a key element in the new economy’s idealized self: the capacity to surrender, to give up possession of an established reality.” This stance toward “established reality,” which can only be called psychedelic, is best not indulged around a table saw. It is dissatisfied with what Arendt calls the “reality and reliability” of the world. It is a strange sort of ideal, attractive only to a peculiar sort of self—gratuitous ontological insecurity is no fun for most people. [More of a superb essay]For farmers, there is uneasiness as the craftsmanship of our profession is absorbed by technology, allowing fewer and lesser-skilled operators to compete effectively. While this certainly contitutes an economic challenge, it also presents a social and psychological upheaval especially hard on veteran producers. It could be that farming is becoming a service, rather than a craft: we provide landowners with production services. That too, is a leap from where we have been and where we think we should be. The upshot is many young farmers may be coming back for disappearing virtues of a disappearing life. And they may not be all that well prepared to change either. We would not be the first profession to undergo this painful transition (think auto mechanics), but we may be one of the most vulnerable. Sunday, October 08, 2006
Friday, October 06, 2006
Tired of golf resorts?...
![]() People with big money and even bigger ideas are looking for the next weird thing to attract tourists. Behold the underwater hotel. Maybe... Neither one is my bet. Most of these Jules Verne fantasies get no further than a URL. But these two dudes—Bruce Jones, the personal submarine designer, and German architect Joachim Hauser—have the look of serious contenders. Jones just announced that a private Fijiian island will be the home of his new undersea resort, called Poseidon (suite rendered at left). It was originally to be built somewhere in the Bahamas. Hauser, meanwhile, has a much bigger-scale project under construction in Dubai, called Hydropolis, where you can build anything as along as you pay for it and you have the blessing (and money) of the crown prince, which apparently Hauser does.After serving on a submarine, this whole idea seems pretty lame. I mean, where are the torpedoes? [via b2day] Thursday, October 05, 2006
Anybody can hunt deer with a bow - what about soybeans?
I don't which is more amazing - the shooting or the photography. Watch toward the end for the arrow splitting another arrow. Also notice how the arrow wobbles as it leaves the bow. Wednesday, October 04, 2006
Who doesn't love Boomers?...
Apparently all the other nameless generations, that's who. But we simply don't care. We have our own little version of the world and we're sticking to it. Time will correct this little fantasy, I think. Meanwhile, our beer supply is in jeopardy. Yikes! Not really sure what hops are? Some help. Oh well, pass the pinot grigio... [Thanks, Aaron] Monday, October 02, 2006
Don't forget Rex at Halloween!...
Sadly there are even more here. Where is the Humane Society when you need them? [via Neatorama]
Are the Boomers coming home?
I would like to share more of the great reporting from the Wall Street Journal, but it is subscription only. At the risk of crowding the copyright laws, consider this quote from a story about where retirees are headed today: But today, while weather and leisure remain important, retirees are telling builders, developers and researchers that they are looking primarily for what Mr. Lydens has found in Mount Airy: a community where they can make friends and connections quickly, whether it's a small town or a walkable neighborhood in a big city. A close second and third on the priority lists: a home that's near grandchildren, and a setting where one can indulge a post-work passion, such as a second career, a newly adopted sport or even, for a growing number of people, farming.My guess of the future is a three-sector form of agriculture:
How they work together - if at all - is another question. Sunday, October 01, 2006
Sunday miscellaneous...
The imperfect science of domesticating species...
While environmentalists will rightfully be critical about a recent report showing a serious lice problem with farmed salmon, it seems to follow the centuries old pattern for animal agriculture. Large concentrations of salmon also mean large concentrations of salmon parasites. FISH farms are responsible for the deaths of up to 95% of young wild salmon migrating out to sea, according to a new report.To decrease the kill of wild salmon, and still meet growing demand, salmon farms were begun about 20 years ago. They have made salmon widely available at reasonable prices. I doubt the farm operators had any reason to anticipate this unfortunate consequence, but now it has been discovered, I'll bet they find an answer. ![]() This pattern of constantly improving food production methods is now enhanced by a vigilant environmental community and powerful technological diagnosis tools. Perhaps salmon farms are inherently too costly to the environment to allow, but the need for fish in human diets and the action of a free marketplace could bring about solutions that satisfy (grudgingly) both sides. At least that has been the way to bet so far. It's how we produce food in this world. And it works pretty well.
I like it the old way, actually...
Neil Armstrong's famous quote on the Moon has been revised. Next up: editing Julius Ceasar, Oscar Wilde, and Winston Churchill.
Halloween Costume Central...
To help you plan for that All-American pagan holiday Halloween, I will be seeking out costume ideas to amaze and/or terrify friends, family, and innocent strangers. [More info and ideas where to steal umbrellas here. ]I like the batwing thing, but the skirt wouldn't work for me. [More]Now we're talking. Remember, it's like the rule when chopping chili peppers: "Don't rub your eyes!!!" And be very careful in the bathroom. [via BoingBoing] US Farm Report host John Phipps surfs the Web so you don't have to...
About MeJan and I farm 1700 acres near Chrisman, IL. I have also written humor and commentary for Farm Journal and Top Producer for 13 years. Please visit my website (www.johnwphipps.com) to learn about my speaking services for your group's next meeting. ARCHIVES
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