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John's World
Sunday, December 31, 2006
About time to read the instructions...
Now that I have been blogging for over a year, and have settled on fairly standard format, I thought I would share some tips about my blog and what the heck I'm trying to accomplish. First, how stuff works.
Thanks for reading. Happy New Year! (BTW, In 2000 our son was in London for the Millennium. We watched on TV at 6 pm. our time and celebrated "with him". As a result, we got to bed on time and felt great the next morning. Consequently we celebrate New Year's on Greenwich time every year now. I recommend it.) Labels: blog Saturday, December 30, 2006
Seeing is deceiving...
I ran across this photo on Neatorama, captioned "Pollution - what pollution?" ![]() Exactly correct. These are cooling towers, perhaps for the Ferrybridge Power Station in West Yorkshire, England. Cooling towers have water running through them and by evaporation and conduction provide the heat sink necessary to run the steam cycle for steam turbines. There are no combustion products, stack gases, or smoke emitted from cooling towers. (The actual "smokestacks" can be seen just to the right, I think.) In fairness, heat could be seen as a type of pollution, but even the most stringent definition would hardly place water vapor in that category. Cooling towers have become iconic for nuclear power and the mythical risks associated with them. Ironically, they could be the least hazardous part.
No wonder I've never met one...
This will come as a shock to you guys out there, but those women we ogle in magazines may not actually exist. ![]() This commercial (caution - slow loader) from Dove proves we've been hoodwinked. Not unlike our industry's depictions of "family farmers", we work pretty hard here in the US to create the perfect image of a product, and less effort on the actual product. Fool me again, please. [via B2blog] Labels: fun Friday, December 29, 2006
Why money is pouring into index funds and land...
Consider this prediction from Matthew Lynn at Bloomberg News: Investors should strap themselves in for a rocky ride in the next 12 months. Equities will collapse, property will be demolished, and you won't be able to give away gold on the streets. The only haven will be fixed income. That's right, '07 will be the year of the bond.[My emphasis] As we see dollars flow into commodities, one result will be a reluctance by farmers to sell. Especially those of us who are "oversold" on 2006 crops. Perhaps we will revert to historic patterns, but I think our markets are now fringe players in the flow of global dollars [euros, yen, yuan, etc] that are looking for a return. OK, now for a prediction of my own: 2008 will see the largest gain in farmland prices since 1987. Also, in Chicago Tribune today, an interesting look at the new ADM CEO, Patricia Woertz. The article is not fluff, and if you couple it with Marcia Taylor's interview in Top Producer, you can see a leader under extreme pressure. Hired from the senior ranks of California-based Chevron Corp., Woertz is charged with no less than ushering in a new age of renewable energy, reviving the economy of the rural heartland and advancing one of Illinois' biggest companies. And though she de-emphasizes her status as a "woman" CEO, she inevitably carries the flag for her gender, too. There are now sharp differences in the approach to ethanol by very big players. Compare Cargill to ADM. Each is betting heavily on a contrary outlook for the future of corn. Many think the loss of the "blender credit" for ethanol and lowering or elimination of tariffs on imported ethanol could be fatal to ethanol producers. I'm not so sure. My guess is ADM could weather and even prosper should either or both occur. Smaller competitors would not. Regardless, the extreme size of the demand increase seems to me to argue producers will enjoy significant market pricing power for a minimum of 2-3 years. Of course, by that time we'll bid cash rents up to absorb the margin. Labels: ethanol, predictions Thursday, December 28, 2006
I'm thinking about my abs right now...
Another great list from the Times [London]: 100 Things we didn't know until last year
Labels: fun
Other voices in the 2007 Farm Bill Debate...
I am skeptical of the actual horsepower at work here, but a few of the more interesting opinions on the Farm Bill: It is a joy to begin to work with the Divine Universal Sisterhood and continue on my journey to become one of the few good men who will support our Queen Sister’s in the 2007 Farm Bill Debate, together we can eliminate forever low, low, low, low food insecurity in our nation. [More] My comment: While doubtless well-meaning here, the um, "Sisterhood" probably means low food security, not insecurity. (Low insecurity is a good thing).
CALL TO ACTION My comment: California has such a huge Congressional delegation this might amount to something in the House. In the Senate, cotton has a firm grip on both Sen. Feinstein and Boxer. [Sen. Boxer's site even refers obliquely (I think) to the payment limitation issue as "discrimination against California commodities such as cotton, rice, wheat, corn, and dairy".] Speaker (presumed) Pelosi will be a different fellow altogether than her predecessor. She might even whip the House into near equality with the Senate on farm legislation. I'd call it a long shot, however.
My comment: The French are masters at making any outcome look like they planned and delivered it all along. The issue for France is complicated by the public disdain for the Bush administration and their own elections. My guess is if the French want a given Farm Bill outcome, they would be wise to come out against it. Will these non-traditional players have any impact? I dunno, but if any do - all could.
One giant leap for mankind...
The stunning beauty and efficiency of this invention moved me to near tears. The Keg-Fast multiple keg tap.Is it me, or is it thirsty in here? Labels: fun Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Dog and cats living together!...
We seem to be in a competition to find the most hysterical global warming prediction. The latest entry: ![]() [Click on picture to enlarge] London in 2100.Labels: global warming, predictions
If it's almost New Year's...
Then it's time for lists of predictions
The world just seems more organized when everything has a number. Labels: predictions
Where our food comes from - The Answers...
Where does most of this food come from? The answers I found.
Labels: food Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Mozart, Robin Schlotz and and what music is...
Even if you wouldn't know Mozart from Moody Blues, you gotta recognize astonishing talent like this.
I couldn't make this up if you paid me...
(Wait - make me an offer.) "Bob - you and Larry take the bull and wolf. I'll handle the lobster."I've been following this bizarre story on BoingBoing (need to read to understand) fully expecting it to be a hoax. Seems like the NRA has produced a comic-book-like call to action for all good 'Mericans. But even loyalists go soft, as the GOP learned last month, and you need some Grade A propaganda to get people riled up again. Let no one accuse the NRA of shirking its duty. Freedom In Peril: Guarding the 2nd Amendment in the 21st Century, is a spectacularly beautiful graphic novel. Here, for example, is one of the biggest threats to the white suburban hunter: dirty hippies and their evil sidekicks: the dynamite-carrying owl, sinister pig, angry Wall Street bull, dire wolf, terror chicken and Land Lobster Still, I didn't realize not shaving your legs was un-American. Must be Amendment 34 or so to the Constitution, maybe. Have we gotten to this? As we live the safest, healthiest, and wealthiest lives ever imagined on this planet, is this what we have to do to sell memberships? There has got to a be a superior species somewhere... Labels: media
Why it's not about us (Reason #28)...
It is important to many farmers that the world revolve around them. It's how we buttress our special status as recipients of government payments. Since a bunch of pesky facts contradict this world view, we choose to not hear them. As a result, most farmers I have talked to have trouble putting our industry in context with the rest of the economy. One overriding reason is the "food" link. "Without us you'd starve", we point out to anyone who will listen. Probably not. This is the wealthiest nation on earth. We spend very little on actual foodstuffs (significantly more to have it prepared and delivered to us). Without us, someone else would feed our fellow citizens, and if anybody starved it would be the poor of the world, simply because they cannot compete for food with rich people in any shortage. It is hard for us to get a picture of our actual position in the world because our entire self-image (and the one used to sell us seed, tractors and ideas) is a Ptolemaic cosmology with farmers at the center. There is a genuine fear of discovering otherwise, and becoming no more important than plumbers or accountants or teachers. The world for the most part humors us. But many see clearly the scope of agriculture and its economic horsepower. One of these people was Leo Melamed, pioneering innovator at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Long ago he saw the wealth in agriculture would not match the growth of other sectors.
His foresight is a good clue for producers who are struggling to understand the influence of commodity funds. On USFR this weekend, Greg Hunt, one of our more erudite commentators brought up the startling fact that CalPERS - the giant retirement fund whose whims terrify boardrooms around the world - has decided to get into commodities. CalPERS plans to decide as early as next summer whether to create a new natural resources/commodities asset class within the pension fund. “Global demand for natural resources and proved systems to extract and deliver them will only increase,” said Valdes. “We will look into commodities future contracts and related investments to naturally complement, diversify and add value to our expanding securities investments in the energy and raw materials sector. [More]Investors like CalPERS talk money on a scale we can barely imagine. Consequently, market participants of their heft can easily skew trade in directions that will confound fundamentalists who assume supply and demand will override all (true in the LONG run) or those who extrapolate from the past. But does it hurt anything for farmers to entertain this fantasy of unwarranted importance? I think so. Just as Rick Warren stated in the first line of the first chapter of "A Purpose-Driven Life", getting over yourself is the crucial first step in finding fulfillment and abiding happiness. Seeing our work in real context is also a great defense to prevent being steamrollered by forces whose size we have not fully come to appreciate. [See the later rerun post on farmland ETF's] Monday, December 25, 2006
A little Christmas fun...
Try out your new computer on these websites. My favorite is "pimp my nutcracker". Labels: fun
Where our food comes from...
One persistent complain from farmers has been "people don't know where their food comes from". I think the implication is once people find out it comes from a farm they will be OK with paying subsidies in addition to actually paying for the product. (Strikes me as unlikely, but ...) OK, fair enough, but my contention is farmers don't know where their food comes from, either. So try this little quiz. Where does most of this food come from? Try to name the largest single source, by state or country.
Hey- I'm on holiday here! Labels: food Sunday, December 24, 2006
There is a reason humans are the dominant species...
I am uncomfortable with emotional manipulation by means of photographs and pictures, whether it is Thomas Kinkade or cuddly baby animals . I was surprised then at my response to this series of photographs showing a man with no use of his hands and malformed feet repairing bicycle tires in Viet Nam. ![]() Something in this matter-of-fact series of photos that captures for me the indomitable spirit of humankind. The guy was doing what he could do - and that turns out to be more than any of us would have imagined. There may be thoughtful lessons to be gathered from his example, but my take-away is to err on the side of the possible when it comes to dealing with people. Merry Christmas, all. [via Metafilter] Labels: human nature Saturday, December 23, 2006
Work, happiness, and wealth...
I have been studying the economics of happiness for a few years. Thanks to the proliferation of fMRI machines in hospitals in the US, brain researchers can now verify what economists and psychologists deduced from behavior. Or dispute them. As America pushes back the frontiers of national wealth, more than a few people are asking "Is That All There Is?" in the face of unparalleled prosperity. This phenomenon has omens for agriculture in the US. We are, I believe embarking on a few years of infrequent prosperity for many in farming. (For those who invested in an ethanol plant 2+ years ago this time has arrived) Anyone who has been "spreadsheeting" a budget for 2007 and has fooled around with numbers like $3.50 for corn has had a hallelujah moment. The question is begged, however, "Will this make me happier?" Farmers love the work of farming. That is problem #1. As a rule, nobody has to pay you to do things you love to do. If people are determined to pursue their calling rather than simply taking a job, some professions (surgery, cookery, genetics) may become overcrowded, others undersubscribed. But when a job cannot find enough takers, the market finds ways to ennoble it: first pay, and then status, begin to rise. It becomes economical to automate some aspects of the work, employing machines to do the deadening humdrum toil that men and women are no longer willing to put up with. What remains of the job will be the bits only people can do: tasks that require insight, ingenuity and the human touch. Ms McCloskey recalls the Cincinnati sewerman, interviewed a few years ago on National Public Radio, who earned $60,000 a year and liked to tell girls he was an “environmental” worker. [More] Happiness is not so easily captured, nor is self-interest the sole undergirding principle of economic activity it seems. And wealth alone does not provide all the answers to being happy. Even Adam Smith - that old capitalist dog - puzzled over this. "In what constitutes the real happiness of human life, [the poor] are in no respect inferior to those who would seem so much above them. In ease of body and peace of mind, all the different ranks of life are nearly upon a level, and the beggar, who suns himself by the side of the highway, possesses that security which kings fight for."Many farmers will experience a true upsurge in happiness as money worries lessen. But unless we have evolved significantly in the past decade or so, it will not last. First, we have individual setpoints for happiness that are hard to alter. Recent research conducted by Daniel Gilbert (a professor of psychology at Harvard) and others has unearthed several new elements about the business of happiness as concerns humans. The first element being that the major events of our lives have a minimal effect on our overall long-term happiness. Did you get married this year, or not? Have you been involved in a war lately or a victim of a crime? Regardless as to your answer, it is a fair bet that your happiness will be more or less the same in the long term. The latter could be understood if you accept that the brain has a mechanism of sorts to reset people back to their baseline happiness over time. The second element of happiness is the terrible truth that we are awful at predicting what will give us happiness. Do you expect that a new car or home will give you happiness? Certainly it will, just not as much as you expect. The same is true in the opposite. Do you think that getting rejected by your crush or losing a game will make you unhappy? It will, just not as much as you expect. [More] Second, much of our happiness derives from status - our position relative to our peers and neighbors. This shows up as reference anxiety or pursuing positional goods. Our brains were wired to care about status, and despite protests to the contrary most of us do. As our neighbors experience similar good results, our success will likely pall. Finally, we are competitors, and as such have a history of bidding up inputs (especially land) when our income goes up. We are agents of our own undoing. Federal payments put money in farmers' pockets, which they used to bid up land prices to as much as three times its production value, Lines said. Prime Ohio farmland is valued at $2,500-3,000 per acre, compared to its productive worth of about $1,000 per acre, Lines said. [More drivel from 2001 here][Side note - I take a perverse pleasure in pointing out all those who called farmers fools for buying land at "inflated prices". No investment is more profitable for producers than to own the land. It has always been thus and those of you who took the challenge are being rewarded. One more point: never take risk advice from someone on tenure] So if we view this as a window for changes that could make us happier, how can we maximize our outcome? Funny you should ask, because that is just what my presentation will address at the Top Producer Seminar in Chicago. I can't wait to hear what I'm going to say!
The 12 Days of Christmas
If you don't "get" YouTube, maybe this will help you see how people are finding ingenious ways to deploy this technology.
I'm working out the math right now...
Many of us amateur economists (and some real ones) have puzzled over the inefficiencies wrapped up in Christmas presents. When we give stuff we don't particularly like to people it may not fit, hasn't value been lost? Isn't the economy worse off? Jonathan Chait considers this problem in too much depth in the New Republic (registration required, but it's free and they don't bug me): Now some in the pro-gift faction actually argue on economic grounds, too. The economy, they say, depends on frenzied holiday-induced sales. Actually, it doesn't. Economists incessantly lecture us to save more--our national savings rate is notoriously low, after all--and consume less. And discontinuing gifts would give consumers more satisfaction with less stuff, by letting them choose what goods they end up with when the tinsel or the Menorah have all been packed away. Those previously employed in the field of fruitcake manufacturing would find work making things people actually want. [More] The boy has a point. But is it worth making? Obviously somebody thought so (they don't call it the dismal science for no reason): It's the sort of question only an economist would ask. Economist Joel Waldfogel, from Yale University, asked it first 13 years ago in a seminal paper entitled The Deadweight Loss of Christmas. Sure, it's tough finding a new facet of the economy to write a paper on, but "deadweight"? Dude - that's harsh. Besides, the problem isn't Christmas - it's the insidious efforts to invent "new" card-required-mandatory-gifting holidays like "Sweetest Day". No wonder we're heading for a recession. Friday, December 22, 2006
Probably not the best time to bring this up...
![]() Already, four shopping malls in China are larger than the Mall of America. Two, including the South China Mall, are bigger than the West Edmonton Mall in Alberta, which just surrendered its status as the world's largest to an enormous retail center in Beijing. And by 2010, China is expected to be home to at least 7 of the world's 10 largest malls. It seems we are losing the mall race to China. One thing to keep in mind is while the disparity in come is enormous there, if just 20% are living a "middle class" life that's 260 million shoppers. Also, suppose China becomes the destination of prestige for American serious leisure shoppers? [via Neatorama] Labels: retail
The Chinese man imbalance...
[Retread from March] I have linked before about the growing male/female unbalance in Asia - particularly The long-term implications of the gender imbalance are largely guesswork because there is no real precedent for imbalances on such a scale. Some Chinese experts speculate, off the record, that there might be a connection between the shortage of women and the spread of open gay life since 2001, when homosexuality was deleted from the official Classification of Mental Disorders. It is possible to dream up all kinds of scenarios: Mumbai and [Whole great article here] Women - can't live without 'em and can't live without 'em. Labels: population Thursday, December 21, 2006
No fair - I was quoted accurately...
By now a few of you may have read the article in The Washington Post where I was interviewed on my farm about farm subsidies. The piece is part of a long series about farm policy. My opposition to subsidies is pretty well known here, I won't belabor it, but if you are interested in what it is like to be interviewed by a Pulitzer-prize winning journalist/author for a world-class newspaper, here is my impression. First, while we in agriculture complain about our media image, the image of people in the media may be even more distorted. The movie/television depictions of journalists does not prepare you for the reality. Gil Gaul visited my farm after several e-mail exchanges. He was somewhat younger than me and upon arrival obviously unfamiliar with the farm scene. Despite my firm conviction that he had his own agenda and without doubt I would be excerpted and misquoted, I have learned that what I think I said and what I said can be two different things. And from feedback from my columns and speeches, I also know that what I say may not be what people hear. My expectations of the outcome of this interview were not high, but I honestly viewed it as a chance to have a small impact on the farm bill debate. About halfway through the morning Gil spent riding on the combine with me, I realized I really liked the guy. In turn, he told me what is was like to working in the print media today as the world shifts to on-line. (Not the most optimistic career vision, BTW). And for a guy who had won 2 - as in 1 + 1 - Pulitzers he was pathetically unassuming. I remember thinking his friendly demeanor was probably a professional act designed to lull innocent farm boys into lapses of judgment. Later that afternoon I discarded that notion. After all, what the heck could they write that I hadn't said or written publicly, anyway? Besides, burning even one-time sources like me is a poor long term strategy for professionals. Look and judge the article for yourself. And you can read what others are saying, both here on AgWeb and at the bottom of the article. My only slight misgiving is that the article seems pretty hopeless - that things could never be better. My personal conviction is if they stopped sending me money and didn't send you any either, we'd figure it out. We're not stupid or lazy. All told, I've got no complaints. This experience has made me a little less cynical about the MSM (mainstream media) and a little more skeptical of those who dogmatically accuse them of bias. So if you ever have a similar chance, I would say go for it. Besides, this episode will be forgotten with the next news cycle, I'm sure.
Why and how we spend...
[This is a recycled post from last December - it's easier than rebuilding the archives] Every now and then you spot a larger trend that resonates with a trend in agriculture. Here is one from The Economist on conspicuous consumption: The number of luxury buyers in the developed world is also being swelled by two other trends. First, consumers are increasingly adopting a “trading up, trading down” shopping strategy. Many traditional mid-market shoppers are abandoning middle-of-the-range products for a mix of lots of extremely cheap goods and a few genuine luxuries that they would once have thought out of their price league. Alongside this “selective extravagance” is the growth of “fractional ownership”: time-shares in luxury goods and services formerly available only to those paying full price. Fractional ownership first got noticed when firms such as NetJets started selling access to private jets. It has since spread to luxury resorts, fast cars and much more. In ( Full article here) This rang a bell - it is similar to leasing combines, etc. that is becoming a trend across the Corn and Wheat Belt. Which led me to the question of how much is the growing acceptance and popularity of such schemes fueled by the desire to drive a bigger, nicer machine for local status reasons. If even we knew ourselves well enough to answer that honestly, I doubt any of us producers would admit it. Still, I have been known to drive a new tractor/combine/sprayer the long way 'round to a field just to casually pass a neighbor's house. When it only happens a handful of times in your career... Labels: economics, rural life Wednesday, December 20, 2006
The handyman's secret weapon...
No, not duct tape. The true key to successful home repair is getting the parts. So when the door to our dishwasher slammed down tonight, I did not despair nor cry like a girl (like last time), I surfed to repairclinic.com and without a parts number or adult supervision found the correct part and ordered it. This could be your triumphant life too. Labels: fun
It's not just ethanol that's threatening...
The soy industry is dealing with significant disillusionment among nutritionists and medical professionals regarding the manifold health claims associated with soy consumption. Soy is a bean. That much we know. Following the fad-o-the-month in the food industry is a short-term business plan. Now with competition for acres from corn, and declining consumer infatuation (admittedly a small portion of soy consumption, but widely touted), and the flood of DDG's into the protein market, the soy industry faces a crossroads here in the US. Meanwhile sunflower growers are being wooed like homecoming queens as processors have sold oil to transfat-fighting food makers that they had assumed would come from acres they had in their pockets. Not so fast. When I was in North Dakota earlier this month (insert your Ole joke here), growers were chortling about skyrocketing contract offers to grow sunflowers. Processors were finally figuring out what the scarcity of 85-day corn meant. There may be only one solution for the soybean producer: burn it. Hey, it worked for corn! Labels: ethanol, production
It's worth the trip...
Be sure to make it to the Top Producer Seminar in Chicago next month. The highlight will be, of course Thursday lunch when that talented columnist from Top Producer, me, speaks. And this year I really, really am going to buy a round instead of just sponging off friends and innocent bystanders. Click on the ads above to get all the info. It's the best meeting I go to all year. Labels: blog Tuesday, December 19, 2006
And where, pray tell, will those plants be?...
A company called Bluefire Ethanol is going to build 20 (count 'em, 20) cellulosic ethanol plants over the next six years. Seriously. This is no speculator-come-lately to the ethanol scene. And they may just have the technological moxie (is that still a word?) to pull it off.
My question: how can this make me a buck? Or will it compete with corn-ethanol? Better still, if I start harvesting corn stover, what does that mean for my fertilizer requirements?
I don't think we know. But if the cellulosic approach to ethanol takes off, we may find out the hard way. Labels: ethanol
Thanks a lot, Mom...
As many of us farmers settle in for a long winter's computer session, we may be in for back problems. The reason is surprising:
Once again, we find that ignoring our own slovenly instincts was a bad decision. I may never shave again...
'Tis the season...
![]() This flash-animation of The Drifters' White Christmas has been around, but like Yukon Cornelius, Linus, and Ralphie, it just wouldn't be Christmas without them. [via Neatorama] Monday, December 18, 2006
Imagine what they could do with the scent of beer...
It seems humans - or at least college students - can follow a scent trail. By studying blindfolded college students who crawled through grass to sniff out a chocolate-scented trail, scientists found evidence of a human smelling ability that experts thought was impossible. [More]Meanwhile we can't smell ourselves, since our brains respond to changes in stimuli - not constants. (Thank goodness!) In fact, there are a lot of smell myths. But my favorite "olfact" is this one:
I'm not smelly, I'm lopsided. What a relief Labels: fun, human nature
Juan hasn't gone phishing...
Somebody else finds the "identity theft" cover for illegal immigration raids a little hard to swallow: Stay tuned, folks, this is just the beginning. Labels: immigration
Small schools, big problems...
Small schools in rural America are dwindling. In places like Nebraska and Montana, charming country schoolhouses simply have no one to serve. Declining populations and - perhaps more importantly, fertility - have made difficult closure decisions commonplace.
We are still dropping school population here in my corner of central Illinois. It seems some towns achieve a critical mass and attract job-providers and population, or the Mother of All Good Fortune , a major government facility like a university. Others are reshaped by economics into low-cost bedroom/retirement locations for those in the lower half of our economy. There is a popular, but mistaken belief that economic support to agriculture can reverse this trend. That seems unlikely, since the determining factor for the number of people in farming is not profitability, but technology. We are adding gizmos from GPS to robot milkers that drastically lower the need for people. A more likely scenario as prosperity surges through low-population areas may be boarding schools. You read that right. Sure, homeschooling is a choice, but requires a parental commitment some may not be able to make. Others been here before, and when distances were not easily covered, the boarding school became a valid choice for rural parents who could afford it. Now add in religious concerns about education, worries about competing academically, and difficulty attracting qualified teachers and we could see remote education become more acceptable to the next generation of farm families. Not to be offensive, but a growing foreign (mostly Hispanic) student percentage has awakened some unfortunate biases among rural parents who would just as soon their child grows up in a familiar (to them) culture. This concern may be greater than we think since few are willing to admit to it. Besides, these children will likely be joined at the lip with Mom and Dad, like modern college students. And despite being traditionally associated with privileged and problem students, boarding schools may only be a voucher away for many farm families concerned with education in rural schools. Labels: rural life Sunday, December 17, 2006
Please, Santa...
All I want for Christmas is: ![]() ![]() Periodic table socks. For more gifts for the engineer in your life.
Big Oil has dreams too...
I generally eschew referring to the petroleum industry as "Big Oil" although it may be more descriptive than pejorative. And I suppose many would lump me in with "Big Ag" so what's sauce for the goose... Anyway, for those of wading through the profit potential of renewable fuels, an update on the world as pictured by the people who just happen to bring us almost all of our energy needs here on the farm. Nobody will accuse ExxonMobil (XOM) of greenwashing. The world's largest oil company released its energy forecast for the year 2030 yesterday and, in contrast to the sunflowers-and-bears imagery promoted by competitors BP (BP) and Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil predicted a fossil-fuel future marked by skyrocketing oil and gas consumption and soaring greenhouse gases emissions. Dependence on Middle East oil will grow. Not that there's anything wrong with that: "The progress of people around the world is driving demand for more energy," the report states. "We are a world on the move and liquid fuels are essential to meet those demands....By 2030, energy demand will increase by about 60 percent, compared to 2000. The global energy mix will look very similar 25 years from now. Oil, gas and coal will be predominant." [More]I suspect they may be right. The petroleum industry is not populated with morons or villains. In fact, they believe just as strongly as we do in their work, which is not without its uncertainties either. And they also have plenty of cash to make bets with. [BTW - if you have not read Marcia Taylor's interview with ex-petroleum exec turned ADM CEO, Patricia Woertz, you should. We may need a "Big Ethanol" label soon.] I think the latent fear in the alternative fuel industry is those petrodollars are working furiously to a) find new petroleum resources and b) develop technological answers to pollution problems from fossil fuels. Suppose they succeed? Do we cheer or not?
Alagna walks off-stage in Aida at La Scala
Check out the guy who had to step up to the plate when Alagna walked. Pretty cool!
And all the ships at sea...
OK, you're probably too young to know about that phrase, but if you have marveled at the maps showing where all the airplanes in the world are at any time, take a peek at this one for cargo ships. Stop and think about it. After we locate all the trains, the next step is pinpoint all the cars. And then, all the people. The NSA is probably working on it now. Labels: technology Saturday, December 16, 2006
Sticking with tried and true gifts...
Obviously a bunch of you are sticking with the ol' reliables for Christmas this year. Jewelry, appliances, frankincense... Turns out we may be endangering frankincense trees in the Horn of Africa. (You didn't even know it came from a tree, didja?) ![]()
So do the "green" thing and give your special someone some myhrr, instead.
Immigration and technology...
The recent raids by immigration authorities of meatpacking plants across the US signals another ratchet up in immigration enforcement. (We discussed this on USFR this week) This is a hot political topic and surprisingly fractures normal political boundaries. Most curious about the raid was the cover story of concern about not illegal immigration but identity theft. This is a red herring in my view designed to make it seem desperate Hispanics are phishing your credit card, doubtless to engage relatively unconcerned Americans in the outrage. Reason's Kerry Howley agrees: Something very backward is going on when anti-immigration officials are trading in dated identity scares. A litmus test for "seriousness" in the immigration debate is support for an employer verification system, a massive federal database that employers will be required to consult before making hires. And one of the chief arguments against creating that database is that it will surely spur a massive increase in actual identity theft, encouraging middlemen to sell, and undocumented workers to buy, more sophisticated false documentation. [More]It also impacts specific sectors of agriculture, such as livestock (especially processing), dairy, and horticulture. Proponents who favor strong measures to limit illegal entry often envision forcing these industries to raise wages to attract needed workers. Certainly that would be one outcome. But more typically in the US we solve labor cost squeezes with technology. ![]() This seems to be the direction for Europe where labor is even more expensive. Meanwhile, Australian researchers have developed robotic milkers that attach and detach autonomously. This free range dairy concept would drastically reduce the human factor for milk production. The real puzzler is whether this will disadvantage or aid smaller farms - always the darlings of the media. My understanding right now is Hispanic labor has been a godsend to small dairies and it strikes me as unlikely a massive investment in robotic technology would be attractive to these operators if the source of cheap labor (and c'mon, we know much of it is illegal) dried up. This debate is continuing among dairy producers.
The motivation factor is obvious in the comparative results. I think it likely that the uproar over illegal immigration will grow, enforcement will intensify (along with massive budgets), and small businesses will collapse under economic pressures. Meanwhile, illegal immigrants will continue to find ways to find work. Labels: immigration, production Friday, December 15, 2006
Anybody else having problems?...
This from a long-time reader: John, are you sure your blog is working properly? I think I have set up three accounts now, which have allowed me to post once per each of those accounts, then disallowed my password the next time I wanted to post. I've noticed that you are getting very few comments, which really surprises me, thus my suspicion that something is not right with the blog. I could be totally wrong about this and it may be that I just don't know what I'm doing (high probability) but maybe you should look into it. DennyAs far as I know, the guys at Google who run blogger (beta) know what they are doing. Lord know they have enough people and money to keep it maintained. My assumption is a problem like this would have been reported and resolved since it would affect a few bazillion blogs. I could not find anything in the help section or FAQ's about this. My guess - and I stress the word "guess" here - is your browser security settings may be part of the issue. If the blog cannot read from your computer who you are it cannot link you to a stored account. I'll keep investigating, but frankly I have discovered some these problems kinda go away as newer versions of browsers/blogger software are installed. Anybody who can help us out here would be eligible for a Major Award. Another thought - you might try upgrading to Firefox 2.0 or IE 7.0 May the Force Be With You. Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Seriously though...
Why aren't women as funny as men? The irrepressible Christopher Hitchens spells it out in the best article I've read in fortnights. Why are men, taken on average and as a whole, funnier than women? Well, for one thing, they had damn well better be. The chief task in life that a man has to perform is that of impressing the opposite sex, and Mother Nature (as we laughingly call her) is not so kind to men. In fact, she equips many fellows with very little armament for the struggle. An average man has just one, outside chance: he had better be able to make the lady laugh. [Read the whole brilliant piece] [Warning: grownup language]
Still time to order...
The Ultimate (as of 12/13/2006) Swiss Army Knife ![]() The Giant is a real product, available for the very real price of £495, but it is aimed at completists and collectors. One gadget website correspondent has balefully written, "I envision this monstrosity being presented as a rare 'salesman's sample' on 2310's version of The Antiques Roadshow." Wenger admit that its practicality is limited, and that its purpose is partly to promote the company . [Way more] Seriously though, I need one of these. Really. Labels: fun
NIMBF and electricity prices...
A funny thing happened on the road to electricity deregulation. No - not Enron. I'm talking about the fact that all the schemes to allow users to select from multiple suppliers depended on a national electric grid that could deliver power from anywhere to anywhere. It seemed like such a great concept... But like our roads and bridges, those transmission lines are clogged to the point of heavy congestion charges being levied in some areas. And the outcome has not met expectations, to say the least. ![]() So why don't we build more transmission lines? Hmmm, let's guess.
There is strong disconnect for most of us to the benefits we enjoy here in the ol' US of A and the costs of same benefits. largely I think this is because often you can skate by with some other sucker picking up the tab. Nowhere is this more easily seen than when siting public utilities or highways. Power lines don't need a whole bunch of acreage, and it could just as easily be on your neighbors land as yours, so why not pull in every political favor and stalling tactic to prevent becoming the fall guy. Farmers can often be strong opponents of power lines even when faced with a relatively small impact compared to residential of small business owners whose entire home or business may be in the way. We have our own Not-In-My-Back-Forty attitude to match those who don't want a CAFO sited, for example. This is America, and so we can take action to prevent needed progress. And boy, do we ever! Meanwhile the backlash from higher prices is growing and the political change in Washington could radically subvert this experiment in free enterprise. Much as I support the idea, I would have to say the execution of this effort to bring market forces was badly botched. The grid may be the least of our problems. For example, without a robust grid new power plants will have to be sited near population centers, and with nuclear power suddenly looking like a stroke of genius again, we won't be able to site them in less conspicuous locations like Wyoming or Oklahoma. That will slow things down a tad. Enron was just the first sign of bad management of this transition. I think we're about to take a step backward in energy economics, and to free market supporters I gotta say: We had our chance and we blew it. Labels: energy, regulation
Why didn't Fox think of that?...
One of the longest running soap operas in England is Emmerdale, which began as Emmerdale Farm and had many plot lines woven into farm settings. At last - recognition that our lives out here in the rhuburbs are steamy, devious, filled with beautiful people, and captivating. In other words, reality TV. Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Happy days are here again...
I have been speculating that the farm economy could be heading for that rarest of occurrences: widespread prosperity. In fact, I will be in ND with a new presentation - Prosperity for Dummies: Managing success after a long layoff. In what may be the first of confirming indicators, the Hoosier Farm Show seems pretty upbeat. One measure of the health of the Indiana farm economy is the health of Indiana-based farm trade shows. If the health of the 28th annual Indiana Farm Equipment Show is any indication, the Hoosier farm economy is in good shape. The show opened on Tuesday at the State Fairgrounds with record numbers of exhibitors and impressive first day crowds. “We had a waiting list of exhibitors this year and; that is the first time that has ever happened,” said Dick Sherman, Show Manager. [More]All this leads me to believe that the relatively high margins we now anticipate won't last as long as we would like as farmers bid up input prices. It is happening with rents, fertilizer, and now maybe machinery. Labels: economics
Canada has a right wing?...
Those wacky Canadians are having a quite the set-to over the Canadian Wheat Board. For all of you non-wheat growers, the CWB is one of those horrible state trading enterprises (STE) that we point to in defense of our subsidies. Anyhoo, it seems the conservative government wants to do away with its monopoly (or more accurately, monopsony) powers, which doesn't sit well with old socialists in Saskatchewan especially. Also, some Canadian farmers want to be able to sell their grain elsewhere - namely the US.
What is interesting about this political battle is the effort by the government to dismantle a popular farmer monopoly. Although some larger farms want to have selling options, the vast majority of small farms apparently like the "single desk" powers of the CWB. Agriculture Minister Chuck Strahl is refusing to back down on a Tory campaign promise to end the Canadian Wheat Board's marketing monopoly even though farmers rejected that plan in the board's director elections. It is startling to see efforts to end this type of control in a country with such a strong socialist history. Canadian farmers could end up with few subsidies and no STE, joining Argentine, NZ, and other major ag producers as truly free-market international players. We're betting the farm on biofuel mandates. This should turn out OK unless some major new oil fields are discovered allowing oil to drop below $40 or so. Like the soon-to-be formerly frozen Arctic. Or the Gulf of Mexico. Or a warmed up Siberia. Labels: economics, energy, ethanol, production, trade Monday, December 11, 2006
Who is burying whom...
A good friend in the deathcare (yep - that's what they are calling it now) industry brought up a stunning observation from an article he read about America's historical funeral profile. Namely, until about 1930, parents were more likely to bury children than the other way around. A century ago, Pine said, his great-grandfather worked as a funeral director and had two livery set-ups: a black hearse with black horses for adults, and a white hearse with white horses for younger folks who had died. “They ran the white hearse more than they did the black hearse,” he said. “All the customs that we have were built around burying young people....The needs (of families) began to shift some time in the ‘30s, and the ‘40s and the ‘50s, and we didn’t necessarily recognize it.”Nothing could have surprised me more, even though I have read much about our recent past. The idea of burying a child is so abhorrent I had discounted the possibility in my mind. And if you can slide past the professional observation about the "problem" of fewer deaths in the US over the next decade as a challenge to be countered, you can get some sense of how our approach to death is changing. It follows that our traditions will change as well. It will be interesting to see how churches act to accommodate this trend. We have seen more memorial services at our small church than I remember. Funerals can be arranged to suit the mourners rather than mortuary requirements since cremation now accounts for over a third of all services. Sadly too very large funerals occur when young people lose their lives way too soon. The link between young men and suicide is as alarming as any social problem I have experienced, and has touched our small community far too deeply. Added to the accidental deaths more associated with young people, such services remain in our memory long after we lay old friends to rest. We derive comfort from our customs of death, and such practices are important to the grieving process. The extended lives, and nomadic lifestyles of so many of us will challenge those traditions. Meanwhile, a very large service industry ponders how to cope with these changes.
Honey, will you put the leaves in the table?...
One the many highlights of your in-laws coming for Christmas is wrestling with the dining room table. There is an easier way (be sure to watch one of the videos): ![]() Probably more than a little beyond my budget. [via boingboing] Labels: fun Sunday, December 10, 2006
Chains we choose...
One of the reason small towns are struggling has been America's love affair with chain stores. While widely derided by cultural critics and generally condemned as cookie-cutter retailing, they also obviously fill some retail need. You can show people pictures of a Pottery Barn with nothing but the name changed, he says, and they’ll love the store. So downtown stores stay empty, or sell low-value tourist items like candles and kites, while the chains open on the edge of town. In the name of urbanism, officials and activists in cities like Ann Arbor and Fort Collins, Colorado, are driving business to the suburbs. “If people like shopping at the Banana Republic or the Gap, if that’s your market—or Payless Shoes—why not?” says an exasperated Gibbs. “Why not sell the goods and services people want?” [More]Like the idea of sprawl representing the dream of owning a house, chain stores exist because we want variety and value where we live, not just where others live. And big-box retailing may actually make the pie bigger for local businesses. My theory is chain stores likely have a shorter business half-life than one-off establishments simply because the ubiquity will over time make them unfashionable - even lame. The Gap is struggling with this curse right now. In other words, if we let them consumers will solve this problem with free choices. [via aldaily]
Zombie chickens - after the cheap laugh...
Culling old hens can be a problem when you work in the millions that industrial egg producers do. And just when you think you've killed them... "Zombie chickens" is the nickname for live hens who are digging their way out, crawling and staggering from the heaps. Some say this was a one time situation where two dozen birds were buried alive, caused by inexperience, but others say that every now and then they do get zombie chickens roaming around. This makes for cute reading but we will continue to have to deal with a population of omnivores who I think prefer to avoid knowing "where their food comes from". This old farmer lament may be better off handled with a "don't ask, don't tell" policy than strident educational efforts. We kill animals and eat them. And a lot of our neighbors really don't want to be reminded. Works for me. Labels: food
My family resembles glyphosate-resistant weeds...
Check out this cool map that show how your ancestors spread across the US. Still - it reminded me of an invasive species... [via Metafilter] Thursday, December 07, 2006
There is room for us inorganic, unnatural, remote growers too...
One aspect of the enormous wealth we have and generate in the First World is the ability to underwrite a vast array of arbitrary choices. You can drive a car of any color, for example, unlike the Model T. You can choose housing from an often bewildering range of styles and sizes. And you can choose food for whatever reason you wish. The latest issue of The Economist has a brilliant article summarizing this trend: HAS the supermarket trolley dethroned the ballot box? Voter turnout in most developed countries has fallen in recent decades, but sales of organic, Fairtrade and local food—each with its own political agenda—are growing fast. Such food allows shoppers to express their political opinions, from concern for the environment to support for poor farmers, every time they buy groceries. And shoppers are jumping at the opportunity, says Marion Nestle, a nutritionist at New York University and the author of “Food Politics” (2002) and “What to Eat” (2006). “What I hear as I talk to people is this phenomenal sense of despair about their inability to do anything about climate change, or the disparity between rich and poor,” she says. “But when they go into a grocery store they can do something—they can make decisions about what they are buying and send a very clear message.”Although I neither buy nor grow these specialty items, I welcome their addition to the grocery shelves. The choice of food ideology is no less sacrosanct than reproductive ideology or scientific ideology. Results, as they say, may vary: What should a shopper do? All food choices involve trade-offs. Even if organic farming does consume a little less energy and produce a little less pollution, that must be offset against lower yields and greater land use. Fairtrade food may help some poor farmers, but may also harm others; and even if local food reduces transport emissions, it also reduces potential for economic development. Buying all three types of food can be seen as an anti-corporate protest, yet big companies already sell organic and Fairtrade food, and local sourcing coupled with supermarkets' efficient logistics may yet prove to be the greenest way to move food around.Adherents however may be surprised by the consequences of their success. Our present food system evolved to satisfy the same goals they espouse, by people just like us making rational decisions. And as I have mentioned before, at some point somebody has to start doing the math and realizing what a staggering achievement it is to provide almost every conceivable foodstuff almost everywhere at comparatively low prices. Our food system ain't broke. It's just not cute enough for some.
One more reason why the Boomer [Geezer] Music rules...
Amazing video of juggling to the music of the Beatles. [via Metafilter]
Walk this way...
(If I could walk that way...Ba-dum-bump) You spot someone at the far end of the field getting out of a car. You can barely see them, but as they walk along the road, you realize it is a woman. How do you make this determination? It turns out it could be hardwired deeper in our brain that we thought. Imagine someone walking along at night strung with white Christmas tree lights. Even though you couldn't see a face or even clothing, you'd probably be able to tell if the person was male or female, young or old, just from the patterns made by the lights as they moved. Queen's University psychology professor Niko Troje thinks there's a lot more information encrypted in such "biological motion" and that it can be reliably teased out using sophisticated computer analysis. [More] Take the test to see how many walkers you can identify. [My score was 93/143.] Labels: science Tuesday, December 05, 2006
The Cousin Contest...
From time to time I have used friends of mine - Judy and Steve Stierwalt - as an example: between them they have 96 first cousins. This remark has always drawn gasps of incredulity from audiences. Until today. Becky Peterson, Director of Marketing of Farm Credit Services of Mandan, revealed she has 99 first cousins. On one side. (It seems her grandmother had 18 children.) These people must be stopped.
Near and Fargo...
I just finished speaking to a group for North Dakota Farm Credit Council in Bismarck, ND. After you finish all the standard jokes, it turns out ND just might be the place to be for the next decade or so. They have a wide variety of crop choices, the highest social capital of any state, and they are not afraid of Canadians. Anyhoo, I told the listeners if they checked my blog I would include the reference sources for my remarks.
Labels: economics Monday, December 04, 2006
Heard it through the grapevine...
I actually heard about this deal from the guy sitting behind me on the airplane to Bismarck, ND today. He was talking on the phone to a colleague about the buyout. I guess it's good news for his 401k retirement fund. I wonder how many other conversations are overheard and pieced together by casual onlookers today. My guess: too many. Labels: production Sunday, December 03, 2006
For Illinois fans (after football season)...
Christmas Gift Idea #479 ![]() Basketball Mouse [via Raw Feed] Labels: gift
Deep inside we're all subsidy serfs...
It seems the competition from Chinese produce growers has tempted the US industry to turn to the Dark Side. But now, in the face of tough new competition primarily from China, even these proud groups are buckling. Produce farmers, their hands newly outstretched, have joined forces for the first time, forming a lobby group intended to pressure politicians over the farm bill to be debated in Congress in January.Sadly, it may not save them. But by using the power of California in Congress, they may just save us older recipients by diluting our payments. Also, as the dollar continues to drop versus the yuan, what excuse will we use? Labels: dollar, farm program
Tell me global warming isn't good for business...
![]() (I suppose they could cut the trees before they build the dam, but what do I know?) And just in case the glaciers do melt, and say, Colorado is underwater, we can still harvest those trees. And we'll build those houses where? Labels: fun, global warming
Wages and prosperity, the saga continues...
I have posted before about the problem of stagnant wage growth for most Americans, and have even opined that it is partly caused by the intense focus on wage pressure by the inflation-watching Fed. In short, we may be solving one problem [inflation] by deepening another [wage stagnation]. It could be it has to be this way - I don't know. But one reason econo-yahoos like Lou Dobbs are getting ratings is because this trade-off sure hits home with a lot of people who feel like they aren't sharing in the prosperity that has been hailed in the form of corporate profits. New numbers are not reversing this trend. Paul Kaihla at Buisiness 2.0 Blog, reaches a similar conclusion: In a normal economy, GDP goes up -- and the share claimed by workers follows along. In 2000, the last year of the Clinton boom, workers' incomes totalled 49 percent of GDP.
More surprising to me is staunch defenders of inflation fighting are less opposed to a minimum wage hike than previously. While it may cost some jobs, many former opponents are looking for some answer to spreading the apparent wealth growth in America around. I may not be the only apprehensive observer. ![]() My point is less that the rich don't deserve their investment returns than a nervousness when economic inequities are going the wrong direction and academics simply justify the status quo. The equations may be right, but if a majority of ordinary people in the US feel like they are being treated unfairly, strange things begin to happen in politics. And I think Lou Dobbs qualifies as a strange thing. Also the grim outlook for trade liberalization, budget discipline, and immigration. Theoretically, at least, the ol' invisible hand should rebalance labor and capital. If things have not undergone a fundamental change - However, there is another factor that might have raised the return on capital relative to labour in a lasting way, namely the integration of China and India into the world economy, along with their vast supply of cheap labour. To the extent that this increases the global ratio of labour to capital, it will lift the relative return to capital. Outsourcing may not have destroyed many jobs in developed economies, but the threat that firms could produce offshore helps to keep a lid on wages. As a result, the share of profits in national income could stay relatively high for a period. Labour's share would remain low, though workers may still be better off if the cake itself is growing faster. But this is not a reason to expect profits to continue to grow faster than GDP; indeed, in a competitive market profit margins will eventually narrow. Even if outsourcing reduces costs, competition will eventually force firms to reduce prices, distributing the benefits back to consumers and workers. [More] Regardless, I wonder if modern populations have the patience to wait for the adjustment to be made. Labels: economics Saturday, December 02, 2006
The problem of imaginary properties...
The organic issue gets more difficult even as it get more popular. Because organic is about how things are produced and not about the product itself, the rush to secure the market premium for organic food is becoming the realm of lawyers and regulators who can discuss with straight face how many organic angels can dance on the head of an organic pin. Today's example is organic fish, which my counterpart at AgDay - host Scott Kinrade - has his shorts in a knot over. While it strikes him as absurd, he is young and not wise to the ways of the organic world, where perception is everything, and objective measurement is scorned. At the moment, there is no federal standard for labeling fish as He is not the only observer puzzled by the bizarre nature of non-organic nature. Fear not - I shall counsel the young Jedi. Where the organic definition gets truly theological is in prepared foods. How about organic salad dressing? Or organic macaroni and cheese? ![]() Personally, I would prefer some preservatives in foods that hang around in my refrigerator for a few weeks, but those whose lives are diminished by the presence of extremely low risk materials in their food now have a choice. I have no beef with organic buyers or producers. I also have no argument with folks who wear those magnetic bracelets to relieve pain until they tell me they are for real. Then I need to see some data - not anecdotes. Pass the preservatives, please.
Christmas Gift Idea - For Boaters
![]() Got a boater on your list? How about a personal flotation device for the boat keys? Plus it's not expensive. Labels: gift Friday, December 01, 2006
Travails in the old polonium market...
It seems the unfolding story of the Russian spy who was poisoned by polonium has triggered a major flap in the otherwise humdrum world of selling radioactive micro-sources. All isotopes are made to order at an NRC licensed reactor in Oak Ridge Tennessee. When the isotope is made, it is shipped directly to the customer from the reactor to insure the longest possible half-life. [Please note these are fresh radioactive materials - not your stale leftovers.] An interesting note about the owner of this retail website: United Nuclear is run by Bob Lazar, who some 20 years ago claimed to have worked on alien spaceships on a secret military base in Nevada, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Lazar was unavailable for comment on Tuesday. [More]I also suspect we're in for a bunch of smoke-detector regulations now. [via Metafilter] Labels: fun US Farm Report host John Phipps surfs the Web so you don't have to...
About MeJan and I farm 1700 acres near Chrisman, IL. I have also written humor and commentary for Farm Journal and Top Producer for 13 years. Please visit my website (www.johnwphipps.com) to learn about my speaking services for your group's next meeting. ARCHIVES
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