|
John's World
Sunday, December 31, 2006
About time to read the instructions...
Now that I have been blogging for over a year, and have settled on fairly standard format, I thought I would share some tips about my blog and what the heck I'm trying to accomplish. First, how stuff works.
Thanks for reading. Happy New Year! (BTW, In 2000 our son was in London for the Millennium. We watched on TV at 6 pm. our time and celebrated "with him". As a result, we got to bed on time and felt great the next morning. Consequently we celebrate New Year's on Greenwich time every year now. I recommend it.) Labels: blog Saturday, December 30, 2006
Seeing is deceiving...
I ran across this photo on Neatorama, captioned "Pollution - what pollution?" ![]() Exactly correct. These are cooling towers, perhaps for the Ferrybridge Power Station in West Yorkshire, England. Cooling towers have water running through them and by evaporation and conduction provide the heat sink necessary to run the steam cycle for steam turbines. There are no combustion products, stack gases, or smoke emitted from cooling towers. (The actual "smokestacks" can be seen just to the right, I think.) In fairness, heat could be seen as a type of pollution, but even the most stringent definition would hardly place water vapor in that category. Cooling towers have become iconic for nuclear power and the mythical risks associated with them. Ironically, they could be the least hazardous part.
No wonder I've never met one...
This will come as a shock to you guys out there, but those women we ogle in magazines may not actually exist. ![]() This commercial (caution - slow loader) from Dove proves we've been hoodwinked. Not unlike our industry's depictions of "family farmers", we work pretty hard here in the US to create the perfect image of a product, and less effort on the actual product. Fool me again, please. [via B2blog] Labels: fun Friday, December 29, 2006
Why money is pouring into index funds and land...
Consider this prediction from Matthew Lynn at Bloomberg News: Investors should strap themselves in for a rocky ride in the next 12 months. Equities will collapse, property will be demolished, and you won't be able to give away gold on the streets. The only haven will be fixed income. That's right, '07 will be the year of the bond.[My emphasis] As we see dollars flow into commodities, one result will be a reluctance by farmers to sell. Especially those of us who are "oversold" on 2006 crops. Perhaps we will revert to historic patterns, but I think our markets are now fringe players in the flow of global dollars [euros, yen, yuan, etc] that are looking for a return. OK, now for a prediction of my own: 2008 will see the largest gain in farmland prices since 1987. Also, in Chicago Tribune today, an interesting look at the new ADM CEO, Patricia Woertz. The article is not fluff, and if you couple it with Marcia Taylor's interview in Top Producer, you can see a leader under extreme pressure. Hired from the senior ranks of California-based Chevron Corp., Woertz is charged with no less than ushering in a new age of renewable energy, reviving the economy of the rural heartland and advancing one of Illinois' biggest companies. And though she de-emphasizes her status as a "woman" CEO, she inevitably carries the flag for her gender, too. There are now sharp differences in the approach to ethanol by very big players. Compare Cargill to ADM. Each is betting heavily on a contrary outlook for the future of corn. Many think the loss of the "blender credit" for ethanol and lowering or elimination of tariffs on imported ethanol could be fatal to ethanol producers. I'm not so sure. My guess is ADM could weather and even prosper should either or both occur. Smaller competitors would not. Regardless, the extreme size of the demand increase seems to me to argue producers will enjoy significant market pricing power for a minimum of 2-3 years. Of course, by that time we'll bid cash rents up to absorb the margin. Labels: ethanol, predictions Thursday, December 28, 2006
I'm thinking about my abs right now...
Another great list from the Times [London]: 100 Things we didn't know until last year
Labels: fun
Other voices in the 2007 Farm Bill Debate...
I am skeptical of the actual horsepower at work here, but a few of the more interesting opinions on the Farm Bill: It is a joy to begin to work with the Divine Universal Sisterhood and continue on my journey to become one of the few good men who will support our Queen Sister’s in the 2007 Farm Bill Debate, together we can eliminate forever low, low, low, low food insecurity in our nation. [More] My comment: While doubtless well-meaning here, the um, "Sisterhood" probably means low food security, not insecurity. (Low insecurity is a good thing).
CALL TO ACTION My comment: California has such a huge Congressional delegation this might amount to something in the House. In the Senate, cotton has a firm grip on both Sen. Feinstein and Boxer. [Sen. Boxer's site even refers obliquely (I think) to the payment limitation issue as "discrimination against California commodities such as cotton, rice, wheat, corn, and dairy".] Speaker (presumed) Pelosi will be a different fellow altogether than her predecessor. She might even whip the House into near equality with the Senate on farm legislation. I'd call it a long shot, however.
My comment: The French are masters at making any outcome look like they planned and delivered it all along. The issue for France is complicated by the public disdain for the Bush administration and their own elections. My guess is if the French want a given Farm Bill outcome, they would be wise to come out against it. Will these non-traditional players have any impact? I dunno, but if any do - all could.
One giant leap for mankind...
The stunning beauty and efficiency of this invention moved me to near tears. The Keg-Fast multiple keg tap.Is it me, or is it thirsty in here? Labels: fun Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Dog and cats living together!...
We seem to be in a competition to find the most hysterical global warming prediction. The latest entry: ![]() [Click on picture to enlarge] London in 2100.Labels: global warming, predictions
If it's almost New Year's...
Then it's time for lists of predictions
The world just seems more organized when everything has a number. Labels: predictions
Where our food comes from - The Answers...
Where does most of this food come from? The answers I found.
Labels: food Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Mozart, Robin Schlotz and and what music is...
Even if you wouldn't know Mozart from Moody Blues, you gotta recognize astonishing talent like this.
I couldn't make this up if you paid me...
(Wait - make me an offer.) "Bob - you and Larry take the bull and wolf. I'll handle the lobster."I've been following this bizarre story on BoingBoing (need to read to understand) fully expecting it to be a hoax. Seems like the NRA has produced a comic-book-like call to action for all good 'Mericans. But even loyalists go soft, as the GOP learned last month, and you need some Grade A propaganda to get people riled up again. Let no one accuse the NRA of shirking its duty. Freedom In Peril: Guarding the 2nd Amendment in the 21st Century, is a spectacularly beautiful graphic novel. Here, for example, is one of the biggest threats to the white suburban hunter: dirty hippies and their evil sidekicks: the dynamite-carrying owl, sinister pig, angry Wall Street bull, dire wolf, terror chicken and Land Lobster Still, I didn't realize not shaving your legs was un-American. Must be Amendment 34 or so to the Constitution, maybe. Have we gotten to this? As we live the safest, healthiest, and wealthiest lives ever imagined on this planet, is this what we have to do to sell memberships? There has got to a be a superior species somewhere... Labels: media
Why it's not about us (Reason #28)...
It is important to many farmers that the world revolve around them. It's how we buttress our special status as recipients of government payments. Since a bunch of pesky facts contradict this world view, we choose to not hear them. As a result, most farmers I have talked to have trouble putting our industry in context with the rest of the economy. One overriding reason is the "food" link. "Without us you'd starve", we point out to anyone who will listen. Probably not. This is the wealthiest nation on earth. We spend very little on actual foodstuffs (significantly more to have it prepared and delivered to us). Without us, someone else would feed our fellow citizens, and if anybody starved it would be the poor of the world, simply because they cannot compete for food with rich people in any shortage. It is hard for us to get a picture of our actual position in the world because our entire self-image (and the one used to sell us seed, tractors and ideas) is a Ptolemaic cosmology with farmers at the center. There is a genuine fear of discovering otherwise, and becoming no more important than plumbers or accountants or teachers. The world for the most part humors us. But many see clearly the scope of agriculture and its economic horsepower. One of these people was Leo Melamed, pioneering innovator at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Long ago he saw the wealth in agriculture would not match the growth of other sectors.
His foresight is a good clue for producers who are struggling to understand the influence of commodity funds. On USFR this weekend, Greg Hunt, one of our more erudite commentators brought up the startling fact that CalPERS - the giant retirement fund whose whims terrify boardrooms around the world - has decided to get into commodities. CalPERS plans to decide as early as next summer whether to create a new natural resources/commodities asset class within the pension fund. “Global demand for natural resources and proved systems to extract and deliver them will only increase,” said Valdes. “We will look into commodities future contracts and related investments to naturally complement, diversify and add value to our expanding securities investments in the energy and raw materials sector. [More]Investors like CalPERS talk money on a scale we can barely imagine. Consequently, market participants of their heft can easily skew trade in directions that will confound fundamentalists who assume supply and demand will override all (true in the LONG run) or those who extrapolate from the past. But does it hurt anything for farmers to entertain this fantasy of unwarranted importance? I think so. Just as Rick Warren stated in the first line of the first chapter of "A Purpose-Driven Life", getting over yourself is the crucial first step in finding fulfillment and abiding happiness. Seeing our work in real context is also a great defense to prevent being steamrollered by forces whose size we have not fully come to appreciate. [See the later rerun post on farmland ETF's] Monday, December 25, 2006
A little Christmas fun...
Try out your new computer on these websites. My favorite is "pimp my nutcracker". Labels: fun
Where our food comes from...
One persistent complain from farmers has been "people don't know where their food comes from". I think the implication is once people find out it comes from a farm they will be OK with paying subsidies in addition to actually paying for the product. (Strikes me as unlikely, but ...) OK, fair enough, but my contention is farmers don't know where their food comes from, either. So try this little quiz. Where does most of this food come from? Try to name the largest single source, by state or country.
Hey- I'm on holiday here! Labels: food Sunday, December 24, 2006
There is a reason humans are the dominant species...
I am uncomfortable with emotional manipulation by means of photographs and pictures, whether it is Thomas Kinkade or cuddly baby animals . I was surprised then at my response to this series of photographs showing a man with no use of his hands and malformed feet repairing bicycle tires in Viet Nam. ![]() Something in this matter-of-fact series of photos that captures for me the indomitable spirit of humankind. The guy was doing what he could do - and that turns out to be more than any of us would have imagined. There may be thoughtful lessons to be gathered from his example, but my take-away is to err on the side of the possible when it comes to dealing with people. Merry Christmas, all. [via Metafilter] Labels: human nature Saturday, December 23, 2006
Work, happiness, and wealth...
I have been studying the economics of happiness for a few years. Thanks to the proliferation of fMRI machines in hospitals in the US, brain researchers can now verify what economists and psychologists deduced from behavior. Or dispute them. As America pushes back the frontiers of national wealth, more than a few people are asking "Is That All There Is?" in the face of unparalleled prosperity. This phenomenon has omens for agriculture in the US. We are, I believe embarking on a few years of infrequent prosperity for many in farming. (For those who invested in an ethanol plant 2+ years ago this time has arrived) Anyone who has been "spreadsheeting" a budget for 2007 and has fooled around with numbers like $3.50 for corn has had a hallelujah moment. The question is begged, however, "Will this make me happier?" Farmers love the work of farming. That is problem #1. As a rule, nobody has to pay you to do things you love to do. If people are determined to pursue their calling rather than simply taking a job, some professions (surgery, cookery, genetics) may become overcrowded, others undersubscribed. But when a job cannot find enough takers, the market finds ways to ennoble it: first pay, and then status, begin to rise. It becomes economical to automate some aspects of the work, employing machines to do the deadening humdrum toil that men and women are no longer willing to put up with. What remains of the job will be the bits only people can do: tasks that require insight, ingenuity and the human touch. Ms McCloskey recalls the Cincinnati sewerman, interviewed a few years ago on National Public Radio, who earned $60,000 a year and liked to tell girls he was an “environmental” worker. [More] Happiness is not so easily captured, nor is self-interest the sole undergirding principle of economic activity it seems. And wealth alone does not provide all the answers to being happy. Even Adam Smith - that old capitalist dog - puzzled over this. "In what constitutes the real happiness of human life, [the poor] are in no respect inferior to those who would seem so much above them. In ease of body and peace of mind, all the different ranks of life are nearly upon a level, and the beggar, who suns himself by the side of the highway, possesses that security which kings fight for."Many farmers will experience a true upsurge in happiness as money worries lessen. But unless we have evolved significantly in the past decade or so, it will not last. First, we have individual setpoints for happiness that are hard to alter. Recent research conducted by Daniel Gilbert (a professor of psychology at Harvard) and others has unearthed several new elements about the business of happiness as concerns humans. The first element being that the major events of our lives have a minimal effect on our overall long-term happiness. Did you get married this year, or not? Have you been involved in a war lately or a victim of a crime? Regardless as to your answer, it is a fair bet that your happiness will be more or less the same in the long term. The latter could be understood if you accept that the brain has a mechanism of sorts to reset people back to their baseline happiness over time. The second element of happiness is the terrible truth that we are awful at predicting what will give us happiness. Do you expect that a new car or home will give you happiness? Certainly it will, just not as much as you expect. The same is true in the opposite. Do you think that getting rejected by your crush or losing a game will make you unhappy? It will, just not as much as you expect. [More] Second, much of our happiness derives from status - our position relative to our peers and neighbors. This shows up as reference anxiety or pursuing positional goods. Our brains were wired to care about status, and despite protests to the contrary most of us do. As our neighbors experience similar good results, our success will likely pall. Finally, we are competitors, and as such have a history of bidding up inputs (especially land) when our income goes up. We are agents of our own undoing. Federal payments put money in farmers' pockets, which they used to bid up land prices to as much as three times its production value, Lines said. Prime Ohio farmland is valued at $2,500-3,000 per acre, compared to its productive worth of about $1,000 per acre, Lines said. [More drivel from 2001 here][Side note - I take a perverse pleasure in pointing out all those who called farmers fools for buying land at "inflated prices". No investment is more profitable for producers than to own the land. It has always been thus and those of you who took the challenge are being rewarded. One more point: never take risk advice from someone on tenure] So if we view this as a window for changes that could make us happier, how can we maximize our outcome? Funny you should ask, because that is just what my presentation will address at the Top Producer Seminar in Chicago. I can't wait to hear what I'm going to say!
The 12 Days of Christmas
If you don't "get" YouTube, maybe this will help you see how people are finding ingenious ways to deploy this technology.
I'm working out the math right now...
Many of us amateur economists (and some real ones) have puzzled over the inefficiencies wrapped up in Christmas presents. When we give stuff we don't particularly like to people it may not fit, hasn't value been lost? Isn't the economy worse off? Jonathan Chait considers this problem in too much depth in the New Republic (registration required, but it's free and they don't bug me): Now some in the pro-gift faction actually argue on economic grounds, too. The economy, they say, depends on frenzied holiday-induced sales. Actually, it doesn't. Economists incessantly lecture us to save more--our national savings rate is notoriously low, after all--and consume less. And discontinuing gifts would give consumers more satisfaction with less stuff, by letting them choose what goods they end up with when the tinsel or the Menorah have all been packed away. Those previously employed in the field of fruitcake manufacturing would find work making things people actually want. [More] The boy has a point. But is it worth making? Obviously somebody thought so (they don't call it the dismal science for no reason): It's the sort of question only an economist would ask. Economist Joel Waldfogel, from Yale University, asked it first 13 years ago in a seminal paper entitled The Deadweight Loss of Christmas. Sure, it's tough finding a new facet of the economy to write a paper on, but "deadweight"? Dude - that's harsh. Besides, the problem isn't Christmas - it's the insidious efforts to invent "new" card-required-mandatory-gifting holidays like "Sweetest Day". No wonder we're heading for a recession. Friday, December 22, 2006
Probably not the best time to bring this up...
![]() Already, four shopping malls in China are larger than the Mall of America. Two, including the South China Mall, are bigger than the West Edmonton Mall in Alberta, which just surrendered its status as the world's largest to an enormous retail center in Beijing. And by 2010, China is expected to be home to at least 7 of the world's 10 largest malls. It seems we are losing the mall race to China. One thing to keep in mind is while the disparity in come is enormous there, if just 20% are living a "middle class" life that's 260 million shoppers. Also, suppose China becomes the destination of prestige for American serious leisure shoppers? [via Neatorama] Labels: retail
The Chinese man imbalance...
[Retread from March] I have linked before about the growing male/female unbalance in Asia - particularly The long-term implications of the gender imbalance are largely guesswork because there is no real precedent for imbalances on such a scale. Some Chinese experts speculate, off the record, that there might be a connection between the shortage of women and the spread of open gay life since 2001, when homosexuality was deleted from the official Classification of Mental Disorders. It is possible to dream up all kinds of scenarios: Mumbai and [Whole great article here] Women - can't live without 'em and can't live without 'em. Labels: population Thursday, December 21, 2006
No fair - I was quoted accurately...
By now a few of you may have read the article in The Washington Post where I was interviewed on my farm about farm subsidies. The piece is part of a long series about farm policy. My opposition to subsidies is pretty well known here, I won't belabor it, but if you are interested in what it is like to be interviewed by a Pulitzer-prize winning journalist/author for a world-class newspaper, here is my impression. First, while we in agriculture complain about our media image, the image of people in the media may be even more distorted. The movie/television depictions of journalists does not prepare you for the reality. Gil Gaul visited my farm after several e-mail exchanges. He was somewhat younger than me and upon arrival obviously unfamiliar with the farm scene. Despite my firm conviction that he had his own agenda and without doubt I would be excerpted and misquoted, I have learned that what I think I said and what I said can be two different things. And from feedback from my columns and speeches, I also know that what I say may not be what people hear. My expectations of the outcome of this interview were not high, but I honestly viewed it as a chance to have a small impact on the farm bill debate. About halfway through the morning Gil spent riding on the combine with me, I realized I really liked the guy. In turn, he told me what is was like to working in the print media today as the world shifts to on-line. (Not the most optimistic career vision, BTW). And for a guy who had won 2 - as in 1 + 1 - Pulitzers he was pathetically unassuming. I remember thinking his friendly demeanor was probably a professional act designed to lull innocent farm boys into lapses of judgment. Later that afternoon I discarded that notion. After all, what the heck could they write that I hadn't said or written publicly, anyway? Besides, burning even one-time sources like me is a poor long term strategy for professionals. Look and judge the article for yourself. And you can read what others are saying, both here on AgWeb and at the bottom of the article. My only slight misgiving is that the article seems pretty hopeless - that things could never be better. My personal conviction is if they stopped sending me money and didn't send you any either, we'd figure it out. We're not stupid or lazy. All told, I've got no complaints. This experience has made me a little less cynical about the MSM (mainstream media) and a little more skeptical of those who dogmatically accuse them of bias. So if you ever have a similar chance, I would say go for it. Besides, this episode will be forgotten with the next news cycle, I'm sure.
Why and how we spend...
[This is a recycled post from last December - it's easier than rebuilding the archives] Every now and then you spot a larger trend that resonates with a trend in agriculture. Here is one from The Economist on conspicuous consumption: The number of luxury buyers in the developed world is also being swelled by two other trends. First, consumers are increasingly adopting a “trading up, trading down” shopping strategy. Many traditional mid-market shoppers are abandoning middle-of-the-range products for a mix of lots of extremely cheap goods and a few genuine luxuries that they would once have thought out of their price league. Alongside this “selective extravagance” is the growth of “fractional ownership”: time-shares in luxury goods and services formerly available only to those paying full price. Fractional ownership first got noticed when firms such as NetJets started selling access to private jets. It has since spread to luxury resorts, fast cars and much more. In ( Full article here) This rang a bell - it is similar to leasing combines, etc. that is becoming a trend across the Corn and Wheat Belt. Which led me to the question of how much is the growing acceptance and popularity of such schemes fueled by the desire to drive a bigger, nicer machine for local status reasons. If even we knew ourselves well enough to answer that honestly, I doubt any of us producers would admit it. Still, I have been known to drive a new tractor/combine/sprayer the long way 'round to a field just to casually pass a neighbor's house. When it only happens a handful of times in your career... Labels: economics, rural life Wednesday, December 20, 2006
The handyman's secret weapon...
No, not duct tape. The true key to successful home repair is getting the parts. So when the door to our dishwasher slammed down tonight, I did not despair nor cry like a girl (like last time), I surfed to repairclinic.com and without a parts number or adult supervision found the correct part and ordered it. This could be your triumphant life too. Labels: fun
It's not just ethanol that's threatening...
The soy industry is dealing with significant disillusionment among nutritionists and medical professionals regarding the manifold health claims associated with soy consumption. Soy is a bean. That much we know. Following the fad-o-the-month in the food industry is a short-term business plan. Now with competition for acres from corn, and declining consumer infatuation (admittedly a small portion of soy consumption, but widely touted), and the flood of DDG's into the protein market, the soy industry faces a crossroads here in the US. Meanwhile sunflower growers are being wooed like homecoming queens as processors have sold oil to transfat-fighting food makers that they had assumed would come from acres they had in their pockets. Not so fast. When I was in North Dakota earlier this month (insert your Ole joke here), growers were chortling about skyrocketing contract offers to grow sunflowers. Processors were finally figuring out what the scarcity of 85-day corn meant. There may be only one solution for the soybean producer: burn it. Hey, it worked for corn! Labels: ethanol, production
It's worth the trip...
Be sure to make it to the Top Producer Seminar in Chicago next month. The highlight will be, of course Thursday lunch when that talented columnist from Top Producer, me, speaks. And this year I really, really am going to buy a round instead of just sponging off friends and innocent bystanders. Click on the ads above to get all the info. It's the best meeting I go to all year. Labels: blog Tuesday, December 19, 2006
And where, pray tell, will those plants be?...
A company called Bluefire Ethanol is going to build 20 (count 'em, 20) cellulosic ethanol plants over the next six years. Seriously. This is no speculator-come-lately to the ethanol scene. And they may just have the technological moxie (is that still a word?) to pull it off.
My question: how can this make me a buck? Or will it compete with corn-ethanol? Better still, if I start harvesting corn stover, what does that mean for my fertilizer requirements?
I don't think we know. But if the cellulosic approach to ethanol takes off, we may find out the hard way. Labels: ethanol
Thanks a lot, Mom...
As many of us farmers settle in for a long winter's computer session, we may be in for back problems. The reason is surprising:
Once again, we find that ignoring our own slovenly instincts was a bad decision. I may never shave again...
'Tis the season...
![]() This flash-animation of The Drifters' White Christmas has been around, but like Yukon Cornelius, Linus, and Ralphie, it just wouldn't be Christmas without them. [via Neatorama] Monday, December 18, 2006
Imagine what they could do with the scent of beer...
It seems humans - or at least college students - can follow a scent trail. By studying blindfolded college students who crawled through grass to sniff out a chocolate-scented trail, scientists found evidence of a human smelling ability that experts thought was impossible. [More]Meanwhile we can't smell ourselves, since our brains respond to changes in stimuli - not constants. (Thank goodness!) In fact, there are a lot of smell myths. But my favorite "olfact" is this one:
I'm not smelly, I'm lopsided. What a relief Labels: fun, human nature
Juan hasn't gone phishing...
Somebody else finds the "identity theft" cover for illegal immigration raids a little hard to swallow: Stay tuned, folks, this is just the beginning. Labels: immigration
Small schools, big problems... Small schools in rural America are dwindling. In places like Nebraska and Montana, charming country schoolhouses simply have no one to serve. Declining populations and - perhaps more importantly, fertility - have made difficult closure decisions commonplace.
We are still dropping school population here in my corner of central Illinois. It seems some towns achieve a critical mass and attract job-providers and population, or the Mother of All Good Fortune , a major government facility like a university. Others are reshaped by economics into low-cost bedroom/retirement locations for those in the lower half of our economy. There is a popular, but mistaken belief that economic support to agriculture can reverse this trend. That seems unlikely, since the determining factor for the number of people in farming is not profitability, but |