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Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Another reason land prices may not be out of line...
According to Mike Walsten at Landowner newsletter (subscription required) land prices show no signs of backing off. The highest-selling tract, totaling 165.44 acres, sold for $9,500 an acre and the lowest-selling tract, 62.31 acres, brought $4,950 an acre. That 62.31-acre-tract was only 70% tillable, says Dave Klein, vice president and managing broker, Soy Capital Ag Services, Bloomington, 309-665-0961, whose firm handled the sale. [More]The driving force, I believe is clearly ethanol. Even though its immediate impact is on corn prices, the competition for land to grow corn forces other commodities higher. Interestingly, this is occurring just when global demand is ramping up, fed by economic growth in the less developed countries of the world. For the first time, dairy farmers could threaten to sell their products elsewhere since the global dairy market is suddenly thirsty for German milk. And there's particular interest in powered whey. Prices for the yellowy stuff, which is the foundation for many packaged food products, have more than doubled within a year. Globalization has finally reached a sector that for a long time was organized regionally. While the dairy sector in Germany is still connected with the image of the quaint Bavarian farmer and his bell-wearing cows, in reality it's become an industry of multinational corporations, stock prices and commodities markets.Meanwhile, one dairy subsector is challenged by rising raw milk prices: organic. It seems consumers may be more price sensitive than originally thought, or that the organic buying public is smaller that forecast. Dean sells organic milk and soy products through its WhiteWave Foods division. The organic milk is specifically sold under its Horizon brand, a segment battling the industry-wide oversupply of raw organic milk. My goodness - supply and demand! Are they still teaching that stuff? If the EU takes this opportunity to even mildly reform its dairy quota system, it will add significant pressure to WTO calls for US reform as well. We are only beginning to measure the fallout from ethanol mandates. The results may surprise us. US Farm Report host John Phipps surfs the Web so you don't have to...
About MeJan and I farm 1700 acres near Chrisman, IL. I have also written humor and commentary for Farm Journal and Top Producer for 13 years. Please visit my website (www.johnwphipps.com) to learn about my speaking services for your group's next meeting. ARCHIVES
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